PA-F&M: McGinty +12

[IceSpear]

Yeah no, LMAO.

But at least there's some pro-D outliers to balance out the crap from Remington et al. lately.

[IceSpear]

Obvious junk, but McGinty is definitely favored now. Looks like PA doesn't like to reelect one-term Republicans (Corbett, Toomey) anymore. Hilarious considering that they reelected Santorum while voting for Gore, lol.

Not really comparable to 2000. Back then Dems nominated low energy underfunded loser Ron Klink to try to appeal to muh Western populists. He conceded Eastern PA to Santorum.

[IceSpear]

Obvious junk, but McGinty is definitely favored now. Looks like PA doesn't like to reelect one-term Republicans (Corbett, Toomey) anymore. Hilarious considering that they reelected Santorum while voting for Gore, lol.

Not really comparable to 2000. Back then Dems nominated low energy underfunded loser Ron Klink to try to appeal to muh Western populists. He conceded Eastern PA to Santorum.

Okay, but there is no reason for Toomey to not do better than Trump. Is PA going the way of IL?

I guarantee he will in the end, even if it's only slightly. As for PA going the way of IL, I can only hope.

[IceSpear]

I guarantee he will in the end, even if it's only slightly.

Why? Virtually every poll shows him trailing, sometimes by a lot. He's being outspent by a lot and hasn't really run an effective campaign like Portman.

I meant I guarantee Toomey will outperform Trump, not win. Most polls still show him doing so, and even in the ones where he isn't it is MoE stuff.

F&M: -1
Gravis: -1
YouGov: +5
Siena: +4
Morning Call: +6

[IceSpear]

I guarantee he will in the end, even if it's only slightly.

Why? Virtually every poll shows him trailing, sometimes by a lot. He's being outspent by a lot and hasn't really run an effective campaign like Portman.

I meant I guarantee Toomey will outperform Trump, not win. Most polls still show him doing so, and even in the ones where he isn't it is MoE stuff.

F&M: -1
Gravis: -1
YouGov: +5
Siena: +4
Morning Call: +6

Ah, I see. (You still have him winning in your prediction, so that's why I wondered. )

Those are still from August. Every time I've gone to update them it's right after a major event (pussygrabber, debate, emails) and I decide to wait for the dust to settle on that first. I'll probably just do one final update the day before the election, might as well delay it a bit more with only a week left.