PA-F&M: McGinty +12
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Author Topic: PA-F&M: McGinty +12  (Read 2963 times)
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 31, 2016, 10:45:10 PM »

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/913809798323927231-f-m-poll-release-october-2016.pdf

McGinty: 47
Toomey: 35
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swf541
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2016, 10:45:47 PM »

PA lean D -> Likely D
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Figueira
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2016, 10:49:18 PM »

Outlier, but WOW!
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 10:49:34 PM »

B-b-b-b-but I thought muh strong moderate incumbent Toomey would trounce lightweight weak candidate McGinty!

As a caveat, F&M has been friendly to Democrats in this cycle, but even with that in mind, Toomey is underperforming Trump here. Call it junk if you like (it definitely looks like an outlier), but McGinty is definitely favored.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2016, 10:55:54 PM »

LOL JUNK POLL!!!!!!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2016, 11:03:14 PM »

Lean D at this point.
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OneJ
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2016, 11:08:42 PM »

Outlier, but a lead is a lead!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2016, 11:17:06 PM »

Yeah no, LMAO.

But at least there's some pro-D outliers to balance out the crap from Remington et al. lately.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2016, 11:21:50 PM »

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2016, 11:22:57 PM »

Outperforming Hillary? Wow.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2016, 11:24:30 PM »

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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2016, 11:28:49 PM »

Obvious junk, but McGinty is definitely favored now. Looks like PA doesn't like to reelect one-term Republicans (Corbett, Toomey) anymore. Hilarious considering that they reelected Santorum while voting for Gore, lol.

Not really comparable to 2000. Back then Dems nominated low energy underfunded loser Ron Klink to try to appeal to muh Western populists. He conceded Eastern PA to Santorum.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2016, 11:29:44 PM »

McGinty might've been the most underestimated Congressional candidate this whole cycle. Remember when everyone thought that the PA Dems were blowing away a perfect pickup opportunity by backing her over Sestak?

Honestly I think the reason McGinty pulled it off, assuming she does indeed win, was her DNC speech.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2016, 11:32:47 PM »

McGinty might've been the most underestimated Congressional candidate this whole cycle. Remember when everyone thought that the PA Dems were blowing away a perfect pickup opportunity by backing her over Sestak?

Why did the national Democratic establishment keep meddling with the elections for this Senate seat? It shouldn't matter if Joe Sestak or Katie McGinty gets nominated as long as it stays in Democratic hands.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2016, 11:41:14 PM »

Obvious junk, but McGinty is definitely favored now. Looks like PA doesn't like to reelect one-term Republicans (Corbett, Toomey) anymore. Hilarious considering that they reelected Santorum while voting for Gore, lol.

Not really comparable to 2000. Back then Dems nominated low energy underfunded loser Ron Klink to try to appeal to muh Western populists. He conceded Eastern PA to Santorum.

Okay, but there is no reason for Toomey to not do better than Trump. Is PA going the way of IL?

I guarantee he will in the end, even if it's only slightly. As for PA going the way of IL, I can only hope. Smiley
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Figueira
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2016, 11:48:38 PM »

McGinty might've been the most underestimated Congressional candidate this whole cycle. Remember when everyone thought that the PA Dems were blowing away a perfect pickup opportunity by backing her over Sestak?

That is definitely true. No one expected Ross, McGinty, Heck and Kander to do so much better than Strickland, Murphy, Kirkpatrick, Toomey and Bayh.

I don't think I ever thought Bayh was the great candidate everyone expected him to be. I mean, obviously he's good by Indiana standards, but he was never going to win comfortably.

And I was skeptical of Atlas's opinions on the PA race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2016, 11:51:25 PM »

I guarantee he will in the end, even if it's only slightly.

Why? Virtually every poll shows him trailing, sometimes by a lot. He's being outspent by a lot and hasn't really run an effective campaign like Portman.

I meant I guarantee Toomey will outperform Trump, not win. Most polls still show him doing so, and even in the ones where he isn't it is MoE stuff.

F&M: -1
Gravis: -1
YouGov: +5
Siena: +4
Morning Call: +6
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2016, 11:56:52 PM »

no one pointed out the fact that this poll has 22% undecided?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2016, 11:59:17 PM »

I guarantee he will in the end, even if it's only slightly.

Why? Virtually every poll shows him trailing, sometimes by a lot. He's being outspent by a lot and hasn't really run an effective campaign like Portman.

I meant I guarantee Toomey will outperform Trump, not win. Most polls still show him doing so, and even in the ones where he isn't it is MoE stuff.

F&M: -1
Gravis: -1
YouGov: +5
Siena: +4
Morning Call: +6

Ah, I see. (You still have him winning in your prediction, so that's why I wondered. Tongue)

Those are still from August. Tongue Every time I've gone to update them it's right after a major event (pussygrabber, debate, emails) and I decide to wait for the dust to settle on that first. I'll probably just do one final update the day before the election, might as well delay it a bit more with only a week left.
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SWE
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2016, 05:33:33 AM »

Unsurprising results. This is not a competitive race.
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Rocky Rockefeller
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2016, 06:00:29 AM »

Junk
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2016, 06:43:00 AM »

Junk poll but wait McGinty is ahead so its legitimate.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2016, 06:56:07 AM »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Franklin and Marshall College on 2016-10-30

Summary: D: 47%, R: 35%, I: 3%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2016, 08:12:29 AM »

Yeah....no.
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