NH - UNH/WMUR: Clinton +7
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 26, 2024, 05:20:46 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NH - UNH/WMUR: Clinton +7
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NH - UNH/WMUR: Clinton +7  (Read 2444 times)
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 31, 2016, 05:19:03 PM »
« edited: October 31, 2016, 05:22:52 PM by Ozymandias »

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_fall_nhelec103116.pdf

Clinton (D) 46%
Trump (R) 39%
Johnson (L) 6%
Stein (G) 1%

10/26-30, 641 LV, MOE 3.9%

SENATE: Hassan - 46, Ayotte - 44

GOVERNOR: Van Ostern - 43, Sununu - 40
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,993
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2016, 05:19:54 PM »

NEW HAMPSHIRE
President:
Clinton (D) 46%
Trump (R) 39%
Johnson (L) 6%
Stein (G) 1%
(UNH/WMUR, LV, 10/26-30)

NH still likely Dem. The +15 was always a bit of an outlier
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,024


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2016, 05:21:22 PM »

NH is one state where the Johnson number might hold up.
Logged
alomas
Rookie
**
Posts: 237
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 05:22:08 PM »

+7 looks good for Clinton but she lost 8 points so difficult to say.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2016, 05:23:43 PM »

+7 looks good for Clinton but she lost 8 points so difficult to say.

The +15 was a pipe-dream.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2016, 05:25:45 PM »

demos in NH just don't work well for Trump...too many college educated white angry women...should be close to a clinton call at poll closing
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2016, 05:27:23 PM »

+7 looks good for Clinton but she lost 8 points so difficult to say.

The +15 was a pipe-dream.

The always had a D-house effect and were adjusted by 3% last time by 538.

Trend is good, but the number is muh. We'll see, what 538/Upshot models think.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2016, 05:52:26 PM »

Most of the non partisan state polls seem to be settling on a 2012 redux, with a few exceptions.
Logged
BoAtlantis
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2016, 05:53:50 PM »

Good
Logged
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,222
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2016, 06:22:09 PM »

Pussygrabber McTic Tac Breath up 2% then down 7%... Trump sheep be like:

Logged
Old Man Willow
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,693
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2016, 06:23:57 PM »

I predict a Trump victory here similar to Bush 2000.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2016, 06:24:30 PM »

I predict a Trump victory here similar to Bush 2000.

Neat.
Logged
mark_twain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 427
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2016, 06:31:01 PM »

Down to earth from the previous poll, but still going strong.
Logged
Old Man Willow
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,693
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2016, 06:32:32 PM »

I predict a Trump victory here similar to Bush 2000.

And how exactly will Trump be able to match Bush's performance among NH women?

He will over perform with NH men. Romney got 43% of NH women in 2012, Trump won't lose more than 5% of that.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,504
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2016, 06:43:55 PM »

So at this point based on polling NH is looking like a C+ 5-7 % win.

Key question is how are undecided voters likely to break in a relatively elastic state?

Do remaining undecided voter demographics tend to favor Clinton or Trump in a state that doesn't have such a thing as early voting, with a few exceptions?
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2016, 06:53:35 PM »

So at this point based on polling NH is looking like a C+ 5-7 % win.

Key question is how are undecided voters likely to break in a relatively elastic state?

Do remaining undecided voter demographics tend to favor Clinton or Trump in a state that doesn't have such a thing as early voting, with a few exceptions?

IDK, but the fact that Johnson is still at 6% might give a tiny hope to Trump. Nate Silver mentioned that Trump (nationally) gained from Johnson's support fading away.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,702
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2016, 07:11:25 PM »

Given 60% of the poll was taken after the Comey story, it seems that it is indeed having little impact on the race at the moment.


I choked on my dinner when I read that.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2016, 07:15:28 PM »

I look forward to all the countless "Can Kasich/Rubio/<insert random Republican candidate here> beat Clinton in NH and can <insert random Republican sacrificial lamb here> beat Shaheen in NH?" threads in 2019 and 2020.

It's interesting how people always say that Republicans will win NH if they nominate someone who is a "good fit" for the state, when McCain and Romney were both "good fits" for NH and they both lost by a greater margin than they did nationally.
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,629
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2016, 07:42:43 PM »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by University of New Hampshire on 2016-10-30

Summary: D: 46%, R: 39%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,522
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2016, 09:38:10 PM »

I feel comfortable that NH will be in Hillary's column come Nov 8th.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 12 queries.