NH - UNH/WMUR: Clinton +7

[Ozymandias]

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_fall_nhelec103116.pdf

Clinton (D) 46%
Trump (R) 39%
Johnson (L) 6%
Stein (G) 1%

10/26-30, 641 LV, MOE 3.9%

SENATE: Hassan - 46, Ayotte - 44

GOVERNOR: Van Ostern - 43, Sununu - 40

[dspNY]

NEW HAMPSHIRE
President:
Clinton (D) 46%
Trump (R) 39%
Johnson (L) 6%
Stein (G) 1%
(UNH/WMUR, LV, 10/26-30)

NH still likely Dem. The +15 was always a bit of an outlier

[GeorgiaModerate]

NH is one state where the Johnson number might hold up.

[alomas]

+7 looks good for Clinton but she lost 8 points so difficult to say.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

+7 looks good for Clinton but she lost 8 points so difficult to say.

The +15 was a pipe-dream.

[psychprofessor]

demos in NH just don't work well for Trump...too many college educated white angry women...should be close to a clinton call at poll closing

[Erich Maria Remarque]

+7 looks good for Clinton but she lost 8 points so difficult to say.

The +15 was a pipe-dream.

The always had a D-house effect and were adjusted by 3% last time by 538.

Trend is good, but the number is muh. We'll see, what 538/Upshot models think.

[IceSpear]

Most of the non partisan state polls seem to be settling on a 2012 redux, with a few exceptions.

[BoAtlantis]

Good

[Rand]

Pussygrabber McTic Tac Breath up 2% then down 7%... Trump sheep be like:

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I predict a Trump victory here similar to Bush 2000.

[Speed of Sound]

I predict a Trump victory here similar to Bush 2000.

Neat.

[mark_twain]

Down to earth from the previous poll, but still going strong.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I predict a Trump victory here similar to Bush 2000.

And how exactly will Trump be able to match Bush's performance among NH women?

He will over perform with NH men. Romney got 43% of NH women in 2012, Trump won't lose more than 5% of that.

[NOVA Green]

So at this point based on polling NH is looking like a C+ 5-7 % win.

Key question is how are undecided voters likely to break in a relatively elastic state?

Do remaining undecided voter demographics tend to favor Clinton or Trump in a state that doesn't have such a thing as early voting, with a few exceptions?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So at this point based on polling NH is looking like a C+ 5-7 % win.

Key question is how are undecided voters likely to break in a relatively elastic state?

Do remaining undecided voter demographics tend to favor Clinton or Trump in a state that doesn't have such a thing as early voting, with a few exceptions?

IDK, but the fact that Johnson is still at 6% might give a tiny hope to Trump. Nate Silver mentioned that Trump (nationally) gained from Johnson's support fading away.

[Hammy]

Given 60% of the poll was taken after the Comey story, it seems that it is indeed having little impact on the race at the moment.

Pussygrabber McTic Tac Breath

I choked on my dinner when I read that.

[Figueira]

I look forward to all the countless "Can Kasich/Rubio/<insert random Republican candidate here> beat Clinton in NH and can <insert random Republican sacrificial lamb here> beat Shaheen in NH?" threads in 2019 and 2020.

It's interesting how people always say that Republicans will win NH if they nominate someone who is a "good fit" for the state, when McCain and Romney were both "good fits" for NH and they both lost by a greater margin than they did nationally.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by University of New Hampshire on 2016-10-30

Summary: D: 46%, R: 39%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ProudModerate2]

I feel comfortable that NH will be in Hillary's column come Nov 8th.