GALLUP: turnout will be lower in 2016 than in any of the previous 4 elections.

[win win]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/195806/americans-less-sure-vote-president.aspx

What are the implications of the high amount of undecideds/low turnout?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/195806/americans-less-sure-vote-president.aspx

What are the implications of the high amount of undecideds/low turnout?

The early data (caveat on early) isn't telling a story of a low-turnout election.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It all depends on who is and is not turning out.  Usually, low turnout benefits Republicans, but it's impossible to know what it would mean this year.

[Eraserhead]

I can actually believe this.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It all depends on who is and is not turning out.  Usually, low turnout benefits Republicans, but it's impossible to know what it would mean this year.

I will probably never say this again, but I agree. IF GOP turnout is depressed and the Dems are doing a better job of getting more less-likely voters out, then a) the focus on 10/10 voter intentions is silly and b) a lower turnout will not benefit the GOP as it normally would.

[Alcon]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/195806/americans-less-sure-vote-president.aspx

What are the implications of the high amount of undecideds/low turnout?

The early data (caveat on early) isn't telling a story of a low-turnout election.

Early voters are overwhelmingly eventual voters.  It's quite possible to have a polarized electorate in which regular, partisan voters are unusually motivated and excited, but lower-propensity, less partisan voters are bummed out.  This election has consistently had a high rate of attention, but also an unusually high rate of people who identify as not wanting anything to do with it.

[HisGrace]

Lower turnout would generally help Republicans, but since the whole narrative about how Trump can win is based on him supposedly mobilizing a bunch of voters who haven't voted before or seeing a big turnout in the low education white male vote, this isn't good news for him.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

On the other hand it appears that Hispanics will make up a bigger percentage of the electorate. Probably 13%?

[Crumpets]

It means Gallup might not have learned their lesson from 2012...

...I hope.

[Hammy]

It means Gallup might not have learned their lesson from 2012...

...I hope.

Were they predicting reduced turnout?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It means Gallup might not have learned their lesson from 2012...

...I hope.

Were they predicting reduced turnout?

They botched their turnout model something bonkers. Basically an 80% white electorate.

[Yank2133]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/195806/americans-less-sure-vote-president.aspx

What are the implications of the high amount of undecideds/low turnout?

The early data (caveat on early) isn't telling a story of a low-turnout election.

Early voters are overwhelmingly eventual voters.  It's quite possible to have a polarized electorate in which regular, partisan voters are unusually motivated and excited, but lower-propensity, less partisan voters are bummed out.  This election has consistently had a high rate of attention, but also an unusually high rate of people who identify as not wanting anything to do with it.

Not in FL, the majority of the early voters are people who would least likely to vote.

[eric82oslo]

So far we've seen record turnout, which is quite understandable, since we haven't seen any presidential election with higher stakes involved since at least 1964. That could all change on election day, though I think it's quite unlikely, since Clinton (with great help of Trump's antagonism) has helped create an unprecedented registration drive (with good help of taco trucks), while Trump on his part might secure record turnout from the other half of the low-propencity voters; the uneducated white voters. So in other words, the poorly educated across the spectrum have never been more ready to go and fired up than they are this year. It's a more mixed situation with the highly (or medium) educated. Either we're seeing record engagement due to Trump's hatred and constant threats to turn USA into a fascist Fourth Reich, or we're seeing disillusionment with some parts of the Republican establishment.

[izixs]

Point of order, why are we talking about an article/poll from September?

[Yank2133]

Point of order, why are we talking about an article/poll from September?

Didn't even seen the date.

Typical troll thread by SillyAmerican.

[Virginiá]

I guess there really is no good, ironclad way to tell until Nov 8th. As much as I'd like, and I sure did try month(s) ago, drawing conclusions from polls just over the past 4 - 6 elections isn't necessarily the best way to predict turnout.

The early voting data is very promising, and part of me really wants to believe that even if more partisan voters were unusually motivated this cycle that turnout couldn't be that low with early voting similar to 2012 in many areas. However, the disgust of Millennials could definitely drive down turnout and thus hurt Democrats. But could they end up turning out in decent numbers out of fear of Trump?

Who knows. Fear is a powerful motivator, but young voters have long shown the need for feels, not fear, to get them to vote.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Point of order, why are we talking about an article/poll from September?

Didn't even seen the date.

Typical troll thread by SillyAmerican.

Curses! Right before the first debate... next.

[Ebsy]

lol

[Ljube]

I said the same thing without any polling.

It's intuitive. When you have two unpopular candidates and negative only campaign, the turnout suffers.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Two terrible candidates?  Of course!!

[OneJ]

Turnout is a complicated topic.

This year, a majority of voters dislike one of the other (But there is no lesser of two evils though). People are also realizing how wacky the two major third party candidates really are (Third partiers don't go out to vote for them anyway or don't vote at all).

Because of Trump's rhetoric that he uses against Latinos, they sense fear and are now becoming more motivated than ever to vote against that bigot. Early vote numbers seem to be backing this up. Black people strongly dislike him and won't take BS (Source: part of this community).

Early vote counts are beating 2012 and even 2008. Whites are turning out and so are Latinos. Here is what's interesting. Trump is having trouble because undecideds are weary of him. Notice that turnout not only among Democrats and Republicans are up, but so are Independents which could spell trouble for Trump BIG LEAGUE.

I wouldn't worry about African Americans turning out on Election Day. Really nothing we should worry about too much.

College-Educated whites generate high turnout rates (moreso than non-college educated). Because they are rejecting Trump, that's even more trouble for Trump.

Lastly (I might come up with more factors to consider), Trump's support among Republican voters this late in the game have been bad. That is a sign that a good portion of registered Reps might've voted for Hillary (Remember that they won't turn out strongly for third party candidates unless it's Utah).

That's all I have for now!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

IMO, I think early indications are that turnout will be higher this year.

[henster]

Looking at early voting data in 2014 we all thought turnout would be well ahead what it was in 2010.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looking at early voting data in 2014 we all thought turnout would be well ahead what it was in 2010.

Not the same. And I hope you'd know that.

[Speed of Sound]

IMO, I think early indications are that turnout will be higher this year.

Absolutely. Numbers literally in every EV state show that voting is up, and that's not gonna change by election day at all. This old article has a severely outdated take on the election which actual numbers are debunking as we speak.