Competitive House Predictions: NJ-03 and One Week Notice

[ElectionsGuy]

Update/Vote in the previous threads. There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall results!

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6 Part 7 Part 8

Predictions



Safe R: 200
Safe D: 177

Competitive R: 29
Competitive D: 28

Republicans: 229✔
Democrats: 205

Gains

CA-25 (D+1)
CO-06 (D+1)
FL-02 (R+1)
FL-10 (D+1)
FL-13 (D+1)
IL-10 (D+1)
IA-01 (D+1)
MI-01 (D+1)
MN-02 (D+1)
NV-03 (D+1)
NV-04 (D+1)
NH-01 (D+1)
NJ-05 (D+1)
NY-19 (D+1)
NY-22 (D+1)
PA-08 (D+1)
TX-23 (D+1)
VA-04 (D+1)
VA-10 (D+1)

Overall: D+18

Once again, you have just one week before I lock this thread and the eight other ones before I make a final results thread. For some reason, Cook moved NJ-03 out of the safe column yesterday, so I'm doing a last minute poll (my prediction is MacArthur winning), but I will not do any others. What do you think of the series? Did it fulfill any puporse or interest?

Votes by thread

1: 41
2: 44
3: 37
4: 30
5: 32
6: 39
7: 31
8: 23

[Heisenberg]

Before I vote, does "Freedom/Horrible Series" refer to the entire series of all your prediction posts, or is it a joke referring to this this "series" (to be a series it can't be just one) of competitive races?
Never mind, I read the poll question.

Thank you so much ElectionsGuy for putting in all the work into these. It's been a lot of fun. Massive Freedom Series!

(Commentary): I think MacArthur wins, the move out of the Safe column is probably just a move out of caution.

[Figueira]

So beyond this map, the Democrats would need 13 more seats to win a majority. It probably won't happen, but what do people think the Democrats' path is?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

MacArthur wins and Freedom Series!

So beyond this map, the Democrats would need 13 more seats to win a majority. It probably won't happen, but what do people think the Democrats' path is?

If I had to guess I'd say the next 10 to fall would be:

CA-10
CA-21
CA-49
FL-07
FL-26
ME-02
NY-01
NY-24
UT-04
WI-08

After that, they'd probably have to win three out of these:

AZ-02
IN-09
IA-03
MI-07
PA-16

[ElectionsGuy]

All threads are now locked.

[Xing]

Thanks so much for doing these threads, ElectionsGuy!