TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3
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Author Topic: TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3  (Read 4447 times)
Vosem
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« Reply #25 on: October 27, 2016, 01:13:58 AM »

It should be kept in mind that one of the reasons Texas looks so favorable demographically to Democrats but typically votes safely Republican is that the popular local Republicans are able to perform very well among Latinos, and usually to deliver similar performances to the Republican nominee atop the ticket. Trump has collapsed that, but it should be interesting to observe if this is a one-note aberration (probably likeliest) or if this is a permanent shift. Down-ballot patterns in Florida strongly suggest this is a one-time thing, but of course the Latinos in Texas (largely Mexican) are different from the ones in Florida (where Cubans and Puerto Ricans are the most important groups).
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Badger
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« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2016, 01:16:40 AM »


Those are relatively suburb numbers for Trump among Hispanics.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2016, 01:23:09 AM »

Yes Texan Hispanics are undoubtedly more moderate than most American Hispanics, in 2014 Abbot won Hispanic men according to CNN exit polls
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #28 on: October 27, 2016, 01:26:41 AM »

Yes Texan Hispanics are undoubtedly more moderate than most American Hispanics, in 2014 Abbot won Hispanic men according to CNN exit polls
What were the numbers among  women?
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Holmes
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« Reply #29 on: October 27, 2016, 01:34:23 AM »

If I have to hear one more time that Hispanics in Texas are so moderate because Abbot won Hispanic men and the margin was close in 2004...
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Badger
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« Reply #30 on: October 27, 2016, 01:45:01 AM »

Yes Texan Hispanics are undoubtedly more moderate than most American Hispanics, in 2014 Abbot won Hispanic men according to CNN exit polls

Yes, but "moderate" shouldn't translate to a third of them still supporting someone who repeatedly screams the equivalent of "f$%k you and your families" for a year straight.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2016, 03:19:24 AM »

Yes Texan Hispanics are undoubtedly more moderate than most American Hispanics, in 2014 Abbot won Hispanic men according to CNN exit polls
What were the numbers among  women?
Latino women broke 61-39 in favor of Davis
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #32 on: October 27, 2016, 03:46:45 AM »

texas republicans have been muuuch more savvy regarding treating latinos like human beings. (especially compared to arizona.)

i guess if the GOP doesn't change texas will be big west virginia ....one party rules locally, the other one in presidential years.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2016, 03:51:54 AM »

texas republicans have been muuuch more savvy regarding treating latinos like human beings. (especially compared to arizona.)

i guess if the GOP doesn't change texas will be big west virginia ....one party rules locally, the other one in presidential years.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2016, 03:56:07 AM »


Well, they both love Putin.
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Person Man
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« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2016, 06:06:52 AM »

I can see the next Democratic President win Texas if Hillary loses and Texas is in the single digits.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #36 on: October 27, 2016, 06:11:37 AM »

It is from Yougov.

Texas will be fun to watch.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2016, 06:15:44 AM »

I can see the next Democratic President win Texas if Hillary loses and Texas is in the single digits.
Why? Latino (mostly in CA,TX,AR,NV, FL etc) vs non-college Whites (in all battleground states, in fact) would be a really good [almost perfect] trade-off for Trump, actually. If he didn't lose women that bad.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2016, 07:04:38 AM »

Texas is slowly shifting Democratic.
It was only accelerated this year because of trump.
A "normal" R candidate would still be doing well, but 8 to 12 years from now could be a different picture.
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Cashew
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« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2016, 08:10:31 AM »

I can see the next Democratic President win Texas if Hillary loses and Texas is in the single digits.
Why? Latino (mostly in CA,TX,AR,NV, FL etc) vs non-college Whites (in all battleground states, in fact) would be a really good [almost perfect] trade-off for Trump, actually. If he didn't lose women that bad.
The thing is that the white vote in the south is already maxed out for republicans, unlike other parts of the country.
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afleitch
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« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2016, 08:33:56 AM »

For info the Latino split is 56-33 to Clinton. Latino Decisions has it at 68-18; a 40 point lead not 23. If so, she's likely ahead.
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« Reply #41 on: October 27, 2016, 08:41:30 AM »

New Poll: Texas President by University of Texas on 2016-10-23

Summary: D: 42%, R: 45%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Gass3268
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« Reply #42 on: October 27, 2016, 09:03:02 AM »

For info the Latino split is 56-33 to Clinton. Latino Decisions has it at 68-18; a 40 point lead not 23. If so, she's likely ahead.

Woah!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #43 on: October 27, 2016, 09:30:03 AM »

For info the Latino split is 56-33 to Clinton. Latino Decisions has it at 68-18; a 40 point lead not 23. If so, she's likely ahead.

If 68-18 is the correct split, the lead would be 50, not 40. 
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afleitch
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« Reply #44 on: October 27, 2016, 09:53:07 AM »

For info the Latino split is 56-33 to Clinton. Latino Decisions has it at 68-18; a 40 point lead not 23. If so, she's likely ahead.

If 68-18 is the correct split, the lead would be 50, not 40. 

Thanks for the correction.

This poll has Clinton up 23 on Trump with Latinos. In 2012 Obama was up 41. Clinton is up 50. In 2012 Latinos made up 27% of voters. This poll's sample is quite Trump friendly. If it's an Obama style margin then this poll would be 47-44 to Clinton (assuming no change in turnout). If it's Clinton by 50 then the poll would be 46-41 Clinton.
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afleitch
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« Reply #45 on: October 27, 2016, 09:59:26 AM »

This completely ignores that Trump is also underperforming among Whites.

Which is why Texas is this close a decade too early.
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NUPES Enjoyer
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« Reply #46 on: October 27, 2016, 01:12:21 PM »

Let's make too much of it, but it's clear Texas will be closer this year than it's been in a long time.
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I am gringo not gringx
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« Reply #47 on: October 27, 2016, 02:48:52 PM »

With the cross tabs, I am wondering if Clinton is actually in the lead in Texas.

Let's be real, another Republican would have won Texas fairly easily. But, I doubt Texas will be a solidly Republican state anymore. The demographic swing is too hard now, and new people keep on moving in.

My guess is that in the 2020s, it will be a lean GOP state, but Democrats no longer shut out of statewide contests. The issue at that time would be a lack of bench of the Democrats.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #48 on: October 27, 2016, 04:47:33 PM »

Clinton won huge swathes of rural Texas in 1996, when he lost Texas by around 5 points. He won those East Texas rural deep south counties that border LA. Now those rural counties that Clinton won or was competitive in are deeply Republican. Hillary's county map will look a lot like Obama's map. She will just increase the margins in the big cities and suburbs and the Rio Grande valley.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #49 on: October 27, 2016, 04:53:38 PM »

i think the feeling of "closeness" is polarizing the race again, which should...atm..lead to a "roll call"-election and a trump lead of 5-6 points.

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