TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3
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Author Topic: TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3  (Read 4462 times)
riceowl
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« on: October 27, 2016, 12:01:56 AM »

https://www.texastribune.org/2016/10/27/uttt-poll-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-clinton/
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 12:02:21 AM »

What a joke. Hyping this poll.
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swf541
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2016, 12:02:39 AM »

Lesson learned, I need to stop staying up for polls
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2016, 12:03:16 AM »

I stayed up until 1 am for this?! Smdh.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2016, 12:03:30 AM »

It is hilarious how no one can get excited anymore for a Texas poll when the D is only down 3.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2016, 12:04:08 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 12:06:27 AM by Interlocutor »

Trump still in low single digits? Sad!

Can't wait for Texas on election night!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2016, 12:04:26 AM »

Important that most voters saying that they'll vote for Trump is not because they want Trump. That could very well play into turnout enough to edge out a victory for HRC at the end of it all. But yea, on the brim of competitivity in the toplines.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2016, 12:04:39 AM »

Stein supporters pick Trump over Hillary?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2016, 12:04:53 AM »

It is hilarious how no one can get excited anymore for a Texas poll when the D is only down 3.
Yes this implies that Clinton is up by double digits nationally. Great poll!
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2016, 12:05:50 AM »

It does say something that Trump underperforming Romney in the second largest state by 13 points isn't remarkable to us anymore. This margin would probably suggest a 2-3% win for Hillary in Arizona.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2016, 12:06:11 AM »

lower than I thought, peh
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Figueira
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2016, 12:07:01 AM »

The fact that Clinton supporters aren't getting excited about this poll shows how well she's doing.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2016, 12:07:26 AM »

Quote
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2016, 12:07:39 AM »

And, a few things seem a little D-friendly (the even Party ID, pro-life only having a 3-point lead on pro-choice, etc.), but that could be a product of who is mobilized this year.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2016, 12:07:42 AM »

there's really no way for Trump to win the PV with Hillary blow outs in CA, NY, IL and a narrow Trump win in TX.
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Holmes
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2016, 12:07:46 AM »

It is hilarious how no one can get excited anymore for a Texas poll when the D is only down 3.

Right? If there was a McCain +3 poll in 2008, people would be losing their sh**t. Well, people will be losing their sh**t on election night when the early vote comes in and Clinton is ahead... until the election day votes start being counted and it flips to Trump.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2016, 12:10:45 AM »

Not sure how their numbers work exactly. They say they surveyed 1,200 RVs, but all the graphs only discuss the LV numbers. So, here are those:


Among 959 LVs, Oct 13-24:

Trump 45
Clinton 42
Johnson 7
Stein 2
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2016, 12:11:31 AM »

Enthusiasm gap is pretty wide again, which could spell for a little surprise on Election day:

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2016, 12:12:11 AM »

So I read this right it is an internet only poll that doesn't have a Spanish language option?

Maybe, I read this incorrectly, but potential downsides for both Trump and Clinton if both are the case, in one of the hardest states to poll in the country....

Still, it reinforces other data indicating that Texas is within low single digits, and it could well come down to the enthusiasm gap, GOTV, and "shy Trump" voters vs "hidden Latino" voters.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2016, 12:12:28 AM »

It is hilarious how no one can get excited anymore for a Texas poll when the D is only down 3.

Right? If there was a McCain +3 poll in 2008, people would be losing their sh**t. Well, people will be losing their sh**t on election night when the early vote comes in and Clinton is ahead... until the election day votes start being counted and it flips to Trump.

Obama was actually ahead by a few points in Texas in 2008 with just the early votes counted. McCain won by 11 points, but seeing a Democrat ahead there was pretty cool too see.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2016, 12:13:08 AM »

Texas is the sleeper state this year. I will flip tables in excitement if I see it turn blue on Election Day.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2016, 12:16:04 AM »

I dunno the relationship between the two, but when UT/Texas Politics Poll did a similar looking internet survey of 1,200 in late June, it found

Trump 41
Clinton 33

which would be a bounce of 5 for Clinton in net.

https://www.texastribune.org/2016/06/27/poll-trump-leads-clinton-8-texas/
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Edu
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2016, 12:16:28 AM »

These are the polls recorded on this site from 2008 after the DNC


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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2016, 12:22:25 AM »

If Texas doesn't go Democratic this year, I suspect it will next time there's a decent-sized Democratic victory, barring unusual circumstances (e.g. Republican nominee is from there).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2016, 12:28:34 AM »

These are the polls recorded on this site from 2008 after the DNC




Well Obama did capture almost 44% of the total vote in Texas in 2008, and it's not unrealistic to envision a potential 46-47% Clinton ceiling against the current Republican nominee, and if Tejas Latinos swing hard against Trump, along with suburban Anglos, and depressed enthusiasm among evangelicals in EastTex and elsewhere to see Clinton potentially eking out a narrow win here.

Not necessarily likely, considering that there a bunch of typically Republican voters here that might well close ranks in the final moments of the endgame, BUT unlike Georgia there is a potentially huge wildcard when it comes to Latino turnout levels and voting habits, which does not exists to any major extent in the political dynamics of Georgia when it comes to the final stretch of the race.
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