NBC/WSJ/Marist: NH-Clinton +9 NV-Tied
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  NBC/WSJ/Marist: NH-Clinton +9 NV-Tied
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: NH-Clinton +9 NV-Tied  (Read 3107 times)
BoAtlantis
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« on: October 26, 2016, 04:00:23 PM »
« edited: October 26, 2016, 04:19:32 PM by BoAtlantis »

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/791383653301583872

NH
Clinton 45
Trump 36
Johnson 10

NV
Clinton 43
Trump 43
Johnson 10

NH Breakdown

https://www.scribd.com/document/329012099/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2016

NV Breakdown

https://www.scribd.com/document/329012100/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2016
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2016, 04:01:47 PM »

NH looks good but NV is unbelievable based on the early vote.
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TC 25
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2016, 04:02:05 PM »

WOW.  Expected NH to be closer, within 3-4 and Nevada about the same.
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2016, 04:02:17 PM »

NH will certainly go Dem. The early vote in Nevada does not indicate anything close to a tie there since it is mirroring 2012 and in some respects exceeding it in Clark County
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 04:02:22 PM »

The Nevada early voting numbers Jon Ralston has been posting lead me to believe Nevada isnt that close. New Hampshire is nice to see.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2016, 04:02:35 PM »

lol, did they only poll people who haven't voted yet in NV?
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2016, 04:03:26 PM »

NH looks good but NV is unbelievable based on the early vote.

I wouldn't worry about NV. Most polls underestimate Democrats there.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2016, 04:03:47 PM »

Yeah, that NV poll doesn't line up with the early vote.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2016, 04:04:08 PM »

So this confirms pollster don't know what they're doing with Nevada for the most part.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2016, 04:04:21 PM »

NH looks good but NV is unbelievable based on the early vote.

I think you've been here long enough to know about NV polling and why you look at field data and not polling. And since ground game is the game and Clinton has an amazing one and Trump basically has none, it's even more pointless.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2016, 04:05:03 PM »

Why does Nevada polling always suck?
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2016, 04:05:10 PM »

I think that this would confirm that things are kind of settling rather than Trump closing in.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2016, 04:05:43 PM »

BTW, this poll also has Heck lead Cortez Masto by 5 points. LOL, I'm sure Hillary is tied in Nevada.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2016, 04:05:59 PM »

As we've learned Presidential cycle after cycle, it's just tough to poll Nevada, even for pretty good pollsters like Marist.  It's still basically safe for Clinton.  If you want to call it Likely, fine whatever.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2016, 04:06:29 PM »

So this confirms pollster don't know what they're doing with Nevada for the most part.

Pretty much.

Same thing happens every presidential election.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2016, 04:07:05 PM »

The Senate numbers are the ones that should be a cause of concern for Democrats. NV is a must-win Senate race for the GOP.

Nobody buys that Heck is up 7 LOL.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2016, 04:07:30 PM »

Why does Nevada polling always suck?

I read that it's because it has a lot of workers that work night shifts in casinos and hotels.

Pollsters have hard time capturing likely voters that skew Dems.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2016, 04:08:55 PM »

Pretty good for Trump trailing nationally by 7.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2016, 04:10:28 PM »

Nevada polling is always iffy because of high latino population and irregular work shifts.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2016, 04:11:26 PM »

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics

"Among the 87% of likely voters who haven't voted yet, it's Trump 46%, Clinton 42%

In NV, Clinton leads Trump 60%-35% among those who have *already* voted (13% of likely voters) -- per new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of NV"
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2016, 04:11:53 PM »

Good, good, liberal NBC calling it a tie heading into what will be a bloodbath is just the ammo Trump needs to yell #rigged. He will be leader of the counter forces for years to come no doubt.
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Person Man
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2016, 04:13:21 PM »

This is a slight improvement from pre-Deplorables Nevada and a YUUUGGGEE improvement for New Hampshire.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2016, 04:14:07 PM »

So this confirms pollster don't know what they're doing with Nevada for the most part.

Agreed...

We have some some wild swings in Nevada polling numbers over the course of the post-convention era, but the consensus of polls shows NV at more like C +4 which jives better with the EV numbers than this poll.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2016, 04:17:28 PM »

NH looks about right.
But NV is not tied. It is Lean to Likely Dem.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2016, 04:21:34 PM »

"Tightening"
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