Explain to me again why Clinton can't reasonably approach the mid-30's performance Obama had in 08? If she does, she probably wins.
Mixture of several factors: Bill having been especially unpopular here in the '90s, this being one of Sanders' absolute strongest states in the primary, the Democratic Party here being unusually left-wing relative to the national party and there being a disproportionate number of #BernieOrBust types (for example, Democratic sacrificial-lamb Senate nominee Misty Snow refused to endorse Hillary back in June, and simply said she was a former Bernie supporter without mentioning Hillary at her debate with Senator Lee, who didn't press the point since he has also refused to say who he is voting for presidentially), along with some amount of tactical voting for McMullin among the moderate Dems that do exist. A mixture of all these factors mean Hillary is not meaningfully improving over Obama '12 numbers here.
