2016: President Mitt Romney vs Sec. Hillary Clinton

[dw93]

Best case for Romney:



Worst case for Romney:



I think something closer to the Best case for Romney, give or take a few states with a narrow Romney PV win by 1.5-2.5% is the likeliest scenario, thus Romney wins.

[dw93]

I don't think Romney would win Minnesota and even Michigan is pushing it, but other than that this is a conceivable or even likely map.

[dw93]

I don't think Romney would win Minnesota and even Michigan is pushing it, but other than that this is a conceivable or even likely map.

I think it depends on if the email scandal plays out in a similar way or not

Possibly. I'd still replace MN and MI with NM.

Even New Mexico is stretching it. Bush was a good fit for the state, thus why he won it in 2004 and kept it very close in 2000, and while Trump kept it close in 2016 he got beat the  out there in 2020. Romney was definitely a worse fit for NM than Bush and was arguably a worse fit than Trump, so I don't see him winning it, even in the best circumstances.