The polling is pretty clear in both of these states.
I think Trump hangs on in Texas but the margin should be embarrassing.
I'll agree with this...
I'm still really curious what the final distribution of the vote is in Texas, if it ends up only going Republican by 3-5% in November.
Assuming that much of the swings are happening among Latino, that live in large numbers in most parts of Texas, excepting EastTex and parts of the plain areas of NorthTex that county swing map should be relatively even in most parts of the state, excepting perhaps SouthTex along the Rio Grande counties and El Paso that are already overwhelmingly Democratic.
I would expect to see major swings in Harris County and other places with a large population of Middle and Upper-Middle Class Republican leaning Latino voters (Bexar County?)
The other unknown is college educated Anglo voters that is the next most likely cause for the dramatic shift in Texas between 2012 results and the 2016 recent Texas polling. This vote will likely be heavily concentrated in suburban counties/areas around Houston, DFW, SA/Austin, and maybe some miscellaneous college towns scattered around the state.
Question #2 Likelihood of Voting
96% of Latinos, 95% of Blacks, and only 93% of Anglos say that have already voted or definitely will vote.
Q #4: Intended voting method
Again Latinos lead the pack in terms of early voting with 69% of Latinos, 66% of Blacks, and only 62% of Anglos saying they will vote early.
Q #6: Motivation to Vote
Latinos again lead with 85% very/somewhat motivated to vote versus only 82% of Anglos.
We could go further through the list by ethnicity, but it does seem clear that there is strong motivation and enthusiasm to vote among Texas Latinos, and it does not bode well for Mr Trump in Tejas, or as he is more frequently referred to in Spanish El Payaso, and that's the nicer term.
