OH/FL/PA/NC-Auto Alliance/ESA/POR: Portman +11, Rubio +8, McGinty+3, Burr +1

[The Other Castro]

Ohio
Portman - 49%
Strickland - 38%

Florida
Rubio - 47%
Murphy - 39%

Pennsylvania
McGinty - 44%
Toomey - 41%

North Carolina
Burr - 46%
Ross - 45%

Polls of likely voters conducted over October 13-20. Numbers taken from the 538 update board.  This poll is a little weird because it has options for 3 day tracker and 5 day tracker, and what the numbers would look like under strong Democratic or Republican turnout.

http://www.allianceesapoll.com/new-poll-results.html

Edit: Updated title due to error from 538's pollster description.

[Skye]

Florida polls sure are weird.

[heatcharger]

If this is the best Toomey and Burr can do in Rasmussen polls, they're in big trouble.

[DavidB.]

Except for the FL one they actually look pretty believable, but this is Rassy, so you never know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

McGinty running even with Clinton in PA? Fabulous news!

[Phony Moderate]

Best poll for Strickland for some time.

[heatcharger]

Best poll for Strickland for some time.

He was never going to lose by 15-20 points. My somewhat bold prediction is that Strickland breaks 45% on Election Day.

[Figueira]

Great poll for McGinty, and it's good to know that NC is still a tossup.

[TarHeelDem]

The Democratic GOTV operation is going to get Ross into the Senate. Beautiful poll!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this is the best Toomey and Burr can do in Rasmussen polls, they're in big trouble.

Under the "stronger than expected R turnout" scenario, both win by 3.

[heatcharger]

If this is the best Toomey and Burr can do in Rasmussen polls, they're in big trouble.

Under the "stronger than expected R turnout" scenario, both win by 3.

And under the "Strong D turnout" the Democrats win. Your point? All signs point to the latter being more likely especially with Trump's chances in the tank.

[Gass3268]

One poll doesn't prove that Strickland will keep it close or that Toomey won't outperform Trump. Still, good numbers for Democrats in PA and maybe NC as well (thought I expect Burr to win once again, but not by much).

11% is close? lol

I think some Democrats are coming home, obviously not enough to win.

[Gass3268]

If this is the best Toomey and Burr can do in Rasmussen polls, they're in big trouble.

Under the "stronger than expected R turnout" scenario, both win by 3.

Which isn't going to happen, polling and early vote are showing the opposite.

[Young Conservative]

Great poll for McGinty, and it's good to know that NC is still a tossup.

NC and PA are both tossups.

[Green Line]

RIP Dereich.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If this is the best Toomey and Burr can do in Rasmussen polls, they're in big trouble.

Under the "stronger than expected R turnout" scenario, both win by 3.

Stronger than expected turnout requires voter enthusiasm and a well-oiled GOTV machine.
So far none of them is present.

[Figueira]

Great poll for McGinty, and it's good to know that NC is still a tossup.

NC and PA are both tossups.

Yes. But I was worried that NC was moving into Lean R territory.