IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2

[BoAtlantis]

wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

Among the major pollsters, ABC/Washington Post poll and Pew Research came the closest in 2012. They predicted +3 Obama when the actual result was +3.9.

IBD/TIPP may have been the most accurate if you average past 3 elections but that's due to their performance in 2004 and 2008. In 2012, they had nearly +3 Republican bias.

Pew Research for the past 3 elections has not been off by more than 1.2 and they showed +7 Clinton in their last poll.

[BoAtlantis]

wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

Among the major pollsters, ABC/Washington Post poll and Pew Research came the closest in 2012. They predicted +3 Obama when the actual result was +3.9.

IBD/TIPP may have been the most accurate if you average past 3 elections but that's due to their performance in 2004 and 2008. In 2012, they had nearly +3 Republican bias.

Pew Research for the past 3 elections has not been off by more than 1.2 and they showed +7 Clinton in their last poll.

It maybe down to different methodology,
Do you think a higher turnout among white working class voters and latino voters, may result in different regional results then polls may been illustrating?

Polls in the states do a fairly good job of capturing who is likely to turn out regardless of demographics and regions.

General election in the US has not been off by more than 2.5 points since 2000.

2000 +2.2 Republican bias
2004 +1 Democrat bias
2008 +0.1 Democrat bias
2012 +2.5 Republican bias

When the bias was somewhat significant, it was more likely to have Republican bias. Pollsters would have to be way off if Trump outperforms the aggregate by 6 or 7 this year. Possible but unlikely imo.

The fact that their margin is even more favorable than Republican-leaning Rasmussen is a red flag for me.

[BoAtlantis]

IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

2012 is not a good example because most polls showed the race as dead heat so I checked out 2008.

IBD herded hard-core in 2008. They were, on average, showing lower margin for Obama only to join the crowd toward the end.

Check out 2008 numbers for the last few weeks.

Diageo/Hotline   10/20 - 10/22   769 LV   3.5   48   43   Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby   10/20 - 10/22   1206 LV   2.9   52   40   Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post   10/19 - 10/22   1335 LV   2.5   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP              10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
GWU/Battleground   10/16 - 10/22   1000 LV   3.5   49   45   Obama +4
FOX News   10/20 - 10/21   936 LV   3.0   49   40   Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times   10/19 - 10/22   771 LV   --   52   39   Obama +13


ABC News/Wash Post   10/23 - 10/26   1314 LV   2.5   52   45   Obama +7
Pew Research           10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
IBD/TIPP              10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
GWU/Battleground   10/20 - 10/26   1000 LV   3.5   49   46   Obama +3
Newsweek                    10/22 - 10/23   882 LV   4.0   53   41   Obama +12

But somehow their average became more realistic toward the end.

Rasmussen Reports        11/1 - 11/3   3000 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby  11/1 - 11/3   1201 LV   2.9   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP                   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
FOX News                        11/1 - 11/2   971 LV   3.0   50   43   Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   11/1 - 11/2   1011 LV   3.1   51   43   Obama +8