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  Talk Elections
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  IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2  (Read 11507 times)
AOC Stan
dfwlibertylover
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« on: October 20, 2016, 06:05:21 am »
« edited: November 08, 2016, 08:18:30 am by Senator dfwlibertylover »

10/20:
Trump - 41 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (+/-)
Stein - 5 (+/-)
Other - 2 (+/-)
Not Sure - 5 (+/-)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

This will be updated daily at 6 AM Eastern
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2016, 06:11:54 am »

Oh god, another one?
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AOC Stan
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2016, 06:12:58 am »

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2016, 06:15:07 am »

Head-to-head, 10/20::
Clinton     43.1% (-0.5%)
Trump     41.0%  (+0.4%)
Other       5.0%   (-0.5%)
Not Sure 10.8%   (+0.5%)
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2016, 06:35:33 am »

If it has a name that is almost 'TPP' or 'TTIP' then it's going to be crap. Smiley
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2016, 06:40:09 am »

Best thing about them going to a tracker, like Rassy, is they essentailly diminish their impact on the various election projection models (538, upshot, etc).
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2016, 06:43:51 am »

I'm glad that SOMEONE is giving Seriously? and StatesPoll something to jack off to every morning.  Don't want those two backed up on election day and then feeling the need to volunteer as poll monitors in their nearest "urban" precinct.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2016, 06:48:19 am »

Best thing about them going to a tracker, like Rassy, is they essentailly diminish their impact on the various election projection models (538, upshot, etc).
Ehm, no. They will have exactly the same impact. But it will be spread out the impact on each day rather than once in a month.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2016, 06:52:08 am »

Best thing about them going to a tracker, like Rassy, is they essentailly diminish their impact on the various election projection models (538, upshot, etc).
Ehm, no. They will have exactly the same impact. But it will be spread out the impact on each day rather than once in a month.

Nate Silver has said in the past that trackers are weighted less than regular polls.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2016, 07:06:45 am »

Best thing about them going to a tracker, like Rassy, is they essentailly diminish their impact on the various election projection models (538, upshot, etc).
Ehm, no. They will have exactly the same impact. But it will be spread out the impact on each day rather than once in a month.

Nate Silver has said in the past that trackers are weighted less than regular polls.

Just look at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/. Daily trackers have descent weights.
If you compare similar polls, for example Ipsos and Quinnipac (they have the same rating A-, approximately the same sample size and the dates) have almost the same weights, even though Ipsos is a daily tracker. Nate probably meant that they threat them as a weekly trackers.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2016, 10:18:45 am »

I'm glad that SOMEONE is giving Seriously? and StatesPoll something to jack off to every morning.  Don't want those two backed up on election day and then feeling the need to volunteer as poll monitors in their nearest "urban" precinct.
Excuse you? Was that really necessary?
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Scott🦋
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2016, 07:05:09 pm »

I'm glad that SOMEONE is giving Seriously? and StatesPoll something to jack off to every morning.  Don't want those two backed up on election day and then feeling the need to volunteer as poll monitors in their nearest "urban" precinct.
Excuse you? Was that really necessary?

You know, you're cute when you're angry.  Has anybody ever told you that?
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2016, 06:02:18 am »
« Edited: October 21, 2016, 06:18:32 am by StatesPoll »

10/20:
Trump - 41 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (+/-)
Stein - 5 (+/-)
Other - 2 (+/-)
Not Sure - 5 (+/-)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

This will be updated daily at 6 AM Eastern



IBD/TIPP  10/21
Total TRUMP 41.1% | Hillary 40.2% | Johnson 7.7% | Stein 4.4%

Look at the Catholics!

Catholics (25% shares of Total voters.)
2012: Obama 50% | Romney 48%. Obama +2%
IBD/TIPP : TRUMP 49% | Hillary 36%.   TRUMP +13%

#PodestaEmailsEffect  (mocked catholics)
#CatholicsDontLikeHillary
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Lok
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2016, 06:14:29 am »

10/20:
Trump - 41 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (+/-)
Stein - 5 (+/-)
Other - 2 (+/-)
Not Sure - 5 (+/-)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

This will be updated daily at 6 AM Eastern



IBD/TIPP  10/21
Total TRUMP 41.1% | Hillary 40.2% | Johnson 7.7% | Stein 4.4%

Look at the Catholics!

Catholics (25% shares of Total voters.)
2012: Obama 50% | Romney 48%. Obama +2%
IBD/TIPP : TRUMP 49% | Hillary 36%.   TRUMP +13%


#PodestaEmailsEffect  (mocked catholics)
#CatholicsDontLikeHillary



mods pls ban
obama pls drone
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2016, 06:18:08 am »

mods pls ban
obama pls drone
[/quote]

your reaction becuz of TRUMP flipped catholic voters?

lol

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Lok
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2016, 06:24:58 am »


your reaction becuz of TRUMP flipped catholic voters?

lol


2 things:

1: FTFY
2: the opposite is actually the case, clinton is currently leading catholics 61-34

SOURCE: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/18/white-catholic-vote-turns-on-donald-trump-handing-hillary-clinto/
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AOC Stan
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2016, 06:32:49 am »

10/21:
Trump - 41 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 8 (+1)
Stein - 4 (-1)

Head to Head:
Clinton - 43
Trump - 41

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2016, 10:57:35 am »

do all trackers include such strange samples?

still trump +1 but....

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

clinton leading in the northeast by 9, midwest by 1, west by 6...trails south by 11 and this results into a trump lead?

other nuggets:

catholics are more anti-clinton than evangelicals, old people like clinton more those between 45 and 64, hispanics are closer than the last 2 elections.
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AOC Stan
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2016, 05:49:12 am »

10/22:

4 way:
Trump - 42 (+1)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (-1)
Stein - 4 (+/-)

2way:
Trump - 42 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (-1)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
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Ljube
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2016, 05:54:49 am »

do all trackers include such strange samples?

still trump +1 but....

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

clinton leading in the northeast by 9, midwest by 1, west by 6...trails south by 11 and this results into a trump lead?

other nuggets:

catholics are more anti-clinton than evangelicals, old people like clinton more those between 45 and 64, hispanics are closer than the last 2 elections.

All of that is normal and expected.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2016, 06:08:20 am »

do all trackers include such strange samples?

still trump +1 but....

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

clinton leading in the northeast by 9, midwest by 1, west by 6...trails south by 11 and this results into a trump lead?

other nuggets:

catholics are more anti-clinton than evangelicals, old people like clinton more those between 45 and 64, hispanics are closer than the last 2 elections.

All of that is normal and expected.


How? You get weird sub-samples, but dude, c'mon.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2016, 06:19:34 am »

10/22:

4 way:
Trump - 42 (+1)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (-1)
Stein - 4 (+/-)

2way:
Trump - 42 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (-1)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

RIP KILLARY!!!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2016, 06:52:41 am »
« Edited: October 22, 2016, 06:54:33 am by Happy Sad Trumpista »

do all trackers include such strange samples?

still trump +1 but....

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

clinton leading in the northeast by 9, midwest by 1, west by 6...trails south by 11 and this results into a trump lead?

other nuggets:

catholics are more anti-clinton than evangelicals, old people like clinton more those between 45 and 64, hispanics are closer than the last 2 elections.

All of that is normal and expected.


How? You get weird sub-samples, but dude, c'mon.
Small subsampbles. Poll has ~700LV, meaning that each subsample is about 100-200 LV. And this should be weighted as well. By chance can 5 old African-Americans all coming from Northeast etc. Trump's African American from LA Times is an extreme example of that. He got a 30 weight which is a methodological issue, but even in "normal" "A" pollsters some groups get 3-4 weights (young non-whites), while others (old whites) get 0.3.

This together with small samples gives weird results. Ipsos 50-nationall survey is a good example, some small states with small samples give strange result, while on average nationall lead is consistent with 538 average. Monmouth and subsamples of SUSA are another good examples. Monmouth is one of the best pollsters on average, but their small samples caused sometimes weird swings.

Upshot wrote a good article http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/19/upshot/introducing-the-new-york-times-upshot-siena-college-poll.html

Pollsters do not publish subsamples to give some deeper insights, no. They publish it in first place for transparency.


I'm not defending this particular poll. I believe in average and think that 538/Upshot gives a fair picture of where the race stands.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2016, 11:03:58 am »

wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

according to the their homepage it was the most accurate for the last 3 elections but they have never been so different from the general average.

let's wait for the new weekend polls.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2016, 11:04:14 am »

TBT to when IBD/TIPP was crazy in 2008, but got credit and auto-fellated because it had a good final poll:



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/hitting_a_bullet_with_a_bullet_b_725707.html
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