Emerson: UT (McMullin +4), NH (Clinton +8), PA (Clinton +4), MO (Trump +8)
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  Emerson: UT (McMullin +4), NH (Clinton +8), PA (Clinton +4), MO (Trump +8)
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Author Topic: Emerson: UT (McMullin +4), NH (Clinton +8), PA (Clinton +4), MO (Trump +8)  (Read 5975 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: October 19, 2016, 02:04:58 PM »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_98fe8b3559f64960a573ecad7dc22ec9.pdf

NH
Clinton 44
Trump 36
Johnson 10
Stein 6

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 41
Johnson 4
Stein 4

MO
Clinton 39
Trump 47
Johnson 5
Stein 2

UT
Clinton 24
Trump 27
Johnson 5
McMullin 31
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2016, 02:05:42 PM »

BAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH IT'S HAPPENNING!!!!

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 02:06:30 PM »

Emerson is a crap pollster. That being said, holy sh*t.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2016, 02:07:12 PM »

Emerson is junk...landlines only - but this is BAD NEWS for trump if McMullin is beating him in Utah with landlines...oy vey
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 02:07:50 PM »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_98fe8b3559f64960a573ecad7dc22ec9.pdf

NH
Clinton 44
Trump 36
Johnson 10
Stein 6

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 41
Johnson 4
Stein 4

MO
Clinton 39
Trump 47
Johnson 5
Stein 2

UT
Clinton 24
Trump 27
Johnson 5
McMullin 31

If we're winning NH by 8 in a landlines-only poll and PA, good night
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2016, 02:08:16 PM »

Probably junk but will love it anyways lol
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2016, 02:08:59 PM »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_98fe8b3559f64960a573ecad7dc22ec9.pdf

NH
Clinton 44
Trump 36
Johnson 10
Stein 6

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 41
Johnson 4
Stein 4

MO
Clinton 39
Trump 47
Johnson 5
Stein 2

UT
Clinton 24
Trump 27
Johnson 5
McMullin 31

If we're winning NH by 8 in a landlines-only poll and PA, good night

but IBD says Trump leading nationally but losing Utah hahahahaha
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2016, 02:09:18 PM »

Emerson is junky, but still, this is incredible. Then again, I'm sure that many McMullin voters are homeowners and relatively affluent, so landlines might help him
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2016, 02:09:30 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2016, 02:36:51 PM by Likely Voter »

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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2016, 02:13:28 PM »

Mmmmmmmmm
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2016, 02:15:44 PM »

Gotta love those favorability #s for Clinton and Trump in Utah...

fav/unfav %:
Trump 24/72% for -48%
Clinton 23/74% for -51%
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2016, 02:16:00 PM »

Not even Emerson can show Trump ahead in NH and PA. Now add him falling behind in Utah to the mix.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2016, 02:16:43 PM »

God please yes.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2016, 02:16:53 PM »

Would it surprise anyone if I say that I like McMullin, from my interactions (very little) with him.

But, I voted for Hillary Clinton. She is the only credible candidate in this race.

And Missouri is not going to be a swing state anymore, but Trump will win with less then 50% of the votes and I doubt Democrats will ever be locked out of MO.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2016, 02:19:08 PM »

I'd love to see McMullin take UT but I want another pollster showing him the lead.

Emerson is not a good pollster. They've done poorly since 2014.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2016, 02:20:26 PM »

Let's be clear: Emerson sucks big time.

That being said, this race in particular is starting to look like the '08 Democratic Primary. Once people realized Obama could actually win, his momentum couldn't be stopped.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2016, 02:21:09 PM »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_1991b4a7afe8464ba2afee10485c5d20.xlsx?dn=ECP_UT_10.18.xlsx
Just for fun, I looked at the crosstabs.

Clinton has 84% of Dems.
Trump has 44% of GOP.
McMullin gets 35% of GOP.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2016, 02:22:16 PM »

UT by CDs:

UT-01: McMullin 34%, Trump 26%, Clinton 21%, Johnson 6%
UT-02: Clinton 27%, McMullin 27%, Trump 26%, Johnson 6%
UT-03: McMullin 43%, Trump 28%, Clinton 17%, Johnson 2%
UT-04: Clinton 35%, Trump 28%, McMullin 19%, Johnson 6%

2012 Romney voters: McMullin 41%, Trump 35%, Clinton 6%, Johnson 5%

McMullin/Trump/Clinton/Johnson among:
Cruz voters: 51/29/2/3
Kasich voters: 53/4/22/8
Rubio voters: 53/15/10/6
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jamestroll
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2016, 02:24:58 PM »

UT by CDs:

UT-01: McMullin 34%, Trump 26%, Clinton 21%, Johnson 6%
UT-02: Clinton 27%, McMullin 27%, Trump 26%, Johnson 6%
UT-03: McMullin 43%, Trump 28%, Clinton 17%, Johnson 2%
UT-04: Clinton 35%, Trump 28%, McMullin 19%, Johnson 6%



The bolded text shows  how clever the GOP was to split the Democratic bases in Salt Lake County, literally in half. Basically Salt Lake City proper was placed with Davis County and a large area of rural Utah and Democratic Cities and swing states (South Salt Lake, West Valley, Murray) were placed with a very conservative part of Salt Lake County plus part of Utah County.

Though UT-04 is overall better and more likely of a Clinton win. Salt Lake County dominates it, and they are use to voting or being governed by Democrats.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2016, 02:25:40 PM »

I'd vote for McMuffin in Utah, just to see Trump lose the state.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2016, 02:31:26 PM »

I'd vote for McMuffin in Utah, just to see Trump lose the state.

If you were an actual Utah voter that wanted Clinton to win though, letting McMullin win, and in the event she's short of 270, lets the House vote for President, and they'll probably vote Trump.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2016, 02:33:53 PM »

Modz, my post of 30+ McMuffins is an art piece designed to represent the McMuffin revolution in Utah and the significance of the first 3rd party win outside of Southern racists since the early 20th century.  An attack on me is an attack on art and America.  Plus, I have more posts than these newbs. 

Go MCMUFFIN!!!
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dspNY
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2016, 02:37:19 PM »

I will eat six Egg McMuffins on November 9 if Clinton wins the Oval Office and McMuffin wins Utah
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Person Man
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2016, 02:38:23 PM »

I will eat six Egg McMuffins on November 9 if Clinton wins the Oval Office and McMuffin wins Utah

MMMmmmm....this election is going to make me fat between the McMuffins and Taco trucks.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2016, 02:38:37 PM »

rofl lmao mcmullin-mentum
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