Is New Hampshire officially a blue state?

[The Arizonan]

New Hampshire seems like a blue state, albeit a lean blue one, on the presidential election level. However, the Democrats can't seem to lock down the House and Senate seats. What's your take?

[Holmes]

It's a Democratic state but it swings wildly depending on the national mood.

[Fusionmunster]

After this election it will be if you go by the "4 elections in a row" idea.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

At the presidential level.

[Green Line]

Lets ask TnVolunteer.  Until then I dont know.

[Bismarck]

Depends on how you define a blue state. I think it's a lean dem swing state.

[RINO Tom]

Great topic, bro.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Yes. It is 50.7% female, and we all know how NH females vote.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's a Democratic state but it swings wildly depending on the national mood.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If Hillary wins nationally by 8 and wins NH by 10-11 it would only be 2-3 points to left of the national average. It is a tossup/tilt Democratic state right now. This insane obsession with NH being solid blue is crazy. That may change in the future, but it is nowhere close to being solid D. Republicans have been doing poorly in NH, because they have lost the national PV the last 5 of 6 elections. If they start winning nationally by a few points, then they will win NH.

[Heisenberg]

Not a swing state at all, but noticeably more Democratic. There are many liberal ex-Rockefeller Republicans who really don't want to give up their loyalty to the GOP. It can also make maps look really ugly at times.

[Seriously?]

No. Money and time would not be spent contesting NH if it was a blue state. Additionally, the R/D/I numbers are about even and always have been.

[Virginiá]

The state-level trends are more convincing than the presidential trends.

What I see is a state trending Democratic slowly (but not too slow), and while the GOP probably could win it, they are most likely going to keep putting up candidates that are completely unpalatable there. This will give the illusion that it is safe or likely D, yet in reality it's just a perpetual screw-up on the part of the GOP.

By the time they field someone reasonable, I'd bet it will then be unreachable regardless of the candidate.

[NOVA Green]

NH is acting like Oregon back in the late '80s and 1990s.

OR went Dukakis in '88 by huge margins (check out the PVI).

Meanwhile the state keeps electing Moderate Republican Senators for awhile longer, and now Oregon won't elect a Republican for dogcatcher, although there is an outside chance they might actually be able to take the SoS office for the first statewide win in something like 15 years.

This is how it starts.... voters increasingly reject the top of the ticket and next thing you know both Senators and virtually all Reps are gone, and you're lucky to get elected for any statewide election...

This scenario happens in both traditionally Republican and Democratic states.... I'm still curious about WTF is going on in Maine, but it looks a heck of lot like Oregon in terms of traditionally electing two Republican Senators with a moderate record that will likely become two Dem Senators for decades.

[Virginiá]

This is how it starts.... voters increasingly reject the top of the ticket and next thing you know both Senators and virtually all Reps are gone, and you're lucky to get elected for any statewide election...

I know what you're talking about, but I just wanted to add that it doesn't always work out in that order. California's legislature flipped to Democrats long before it went reliably Democratic at the statewide/presidential level. For many other states, particularly Southern states up to 2010, the legislature was the last to flip, many decades later. Then you have funny states, like Wisconsin/Michigan, whose legislatures flipped (mid-90s) just at the time they went reliably Democratic at the presidential level. I think this has more to do with the generational voting patterns and geographical distributions of the party's voters in those states, though.

New Hampshire Democrats got boned with redistricting in 2010, but regardless, the legislature looks set to flip any year now, perhaps even this year. Once that happens and once Ayotte is out, it'll just be a sea of blue.

[Lolasknives]

Yep. W will forever be the last Rethug to win NH, thank God. New England is just too educated to ever revert back to Medieval ignorance.