Juming on the bandwagon

[Emsworth]

How do you think I would do as a candidate? You may assume that I am a natural-born citizen, etc., and that I am the incumbent Governor of New Jersey.

Let's assume that my opponent is an evangelical, socially conservative Republican.

[A18]

How many years as governor at the time of the election?

[Emsworth]

How many years as governor at the time of the election?

Let's say about five years (NJ elections are in odd-numbered years).  Also assume that I previously served in the House of Representatives for, say, three terms.

[Emsworth]

Here's a very optimistic prediction:

[Erc]

Here's a very optimistic prediction:

Unless you have Schweitzer on the ticket, no way that happens.  And even then, it still doesn't happen.


To all Democrats:  Just Because You Won Montana In 1992 (winning less of the vote than you did in 2004, I might add) Does Not Mean You Will Win The State In The Next Twenty Years Unless Your Name Is Schweitzer.

[jokerman]

Here's a very optimistic prediction:

Unless you have Schweitzer on the ticket, no way that happens.  And even then, it still doesn't happen.


To all Democrats:  Just Because You Won Montana In 1992 (winning less of the vote than you did in 2004, I might add) Does Not Mean You Will Win The State In The Next Twenty Years Unless Your Name Is Schweitzer.

I have to agree with Erc.  One thing I also can't understand is that libertarian=winning Montana.  If anything Montana is neutral between libertarian/populist and is moving populist (because of corporate abuses and things like that).  Schweitzer campaigned among the people.  He looks like a rancher.  He's a down to earth populist, that's how he won.

[jokerman]

[Democratic Hawk]

Here's a very optimistic prediction:

I think you could add Minnesota and Wisconsin to your states - possibly Iowa, as well. You'll have to campaign hard there. I'm not sure how well you'd play in the south west. Against an evangelical, socially conservative Republican you can write the South off

Dave

[Rob]

The Republican wins 279-259.

[Emsworth]

The Republican wins 279-259.

Nothing in the Southwest? Hmm...

[Rob]

Nevada is a strong possibility, but Arizona is too Republican and New Mexico is too populist.

[Adam Griffin]

Under certain conditions that I don't feel like writing right now:



Dem: 278 EVs
Rep: 260 EVs