What percentage of the PV will Donald Trump get?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 01, 2024, 06:06:11 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  What percentage of the PV will Donald Trump get?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: ?
#1
55%+ (lol)		  
#2
55%		  
#3
54%		  
#4
53%		  
#5
52%		  
#6
51%		  
#7
50%		  
#8
49%		  
#9
48%		  
#10
47%		  
#11
46%		  
#12
45%		  
#13
44%		  
#14
43%		  
#15
42%		  
#16
41%		  
#17
40%		  
#18
39%		  
#19
38%		  
#20
37%		  
#21
36%		  
#22
35%		  
#23
Below 35% (lol)		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 102

Author Topic: What percentage of the PV will Donald Trump get?  (Read 1052 times)
RHTFT
Rookie
**
Posts: 42
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.50, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 14, 2016, 06:21:28 PM »
I predict that Trump will get around 45%. His ceiling is 48% and his floor is 42% I think.

Discuss.
Logged
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,735


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2016, 06:22:49 PM »
Probably around 45-47%.
Logged
Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,310


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2016, 06:24:12 PM »
Are y'all nuts?  He won't get 40.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2016, 06:26:20 PM »
My guess is
Clinton 48
Donald 43
Johnson 3,
McMullin 4,
Stein 1,
Others 1
Logged
RHTFT
Rookie
**
Posts: 42
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.50, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2016, 06:27:27 PM »
What makes you think that Donald Trump won't get over 40%? Even Mondale, McGovern, and Goldwater all got around 40% of the vote, and the electorate is too polarized for a landslide victory larger than 1984. Trump's absolute floor is 40%. 40% of the country will vote Republican no matter what (and another 40% of this country will vote D no matter what)
Logged
amdcpus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 307
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2016, 06:27:54 PM »
Quote from: Spicy Purrito on October 14, 2016, 06:26:20 PM
My guess is
Clinton 48
Donald 43
Johnson 3,
McMullin 4,
Stein 1,
Others 1

It's literally not possible for McMullin to get that much. He is only on the ballot in 11 states compared to Johnson's 50 + DC and Stein's 44 + DC.
Logged
BundouYMB
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 910


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2016, 06:28:12 PM »
42%
Logged
HisGrace
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,556
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2016, 06:35:51 PM »
Clinton around 50 percent

Trump low 40's

3rd Party 6-8 percent
Logged
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,278
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2016, 06:37:59 PM »
About 44%. I expect Clinton to win by around 6% and for third parties to get about 6% in total.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2016, 06:45:23 PM »
Clinton: 52%
Trump: 42%
Johnson: 4%
Other: 2%
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2016, 07:05:46 PM »
Far too high.
Logged
mark_twain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 427
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2016, 07:08:56 PM »
Quote from: RHTFT on October 14, 2016, 06:27:27 PM
What makes you think that Donald Trump won't get over 40%? Even Mondale, McGovern, and Goldwater all got around 40% of the vote, and the electorate is too polarized for a landslide victory larger than 1984. Trump's absolute floor is 40%. 40% of the country will vote Republican no matter what (and another 40% of this country will vote D no matter what)

Two 3rd-party candidates and a host of scandals to bring down his support...
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,527
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2016, 07:19:37 PM »
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,316
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2016, 07:20:34 PM »
42-ish
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,460
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2016, 07:23:04 PM »
Right now, I'm thinking 43-ish.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2016, 07:28:06 PM »
40-41
Logged
Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,714
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2016, 07:34:05 PM »
50-51%.
Logged
RR1997
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,997
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2016, 07:34:18 PM »
45%
Logged
evergreenarbor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 864


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: -8.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2016, 08:27:26 PM »
~42%. I expect Clinton to get ~50, Johnson to get ~6, and Stein and McMuffin to get ~1% each.
Logged
Cashew
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,567
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2016, 08:35:43 PM »
I will be bold with 38%.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,644
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2016, 08:48:49 PM »

LOL, you know you don't actually believe that.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2016, 08:49:59 PM »
I would say around 46%.
Logged
peterthlee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
China


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2016, 12:47:07 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2016, 12:49:28 AM by peterthlee »
Nationwide Likely D
Clinton 53-44-3
[I misclicked '43%', but he actually has a higher probability to get 43% or less instead of 44% if Johnson/ McMullin continue their surge]
Logged
Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,482


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2016, 12:53:18 AM »
35%

Lowballing, because I think the combination of weeks of the unshackled insanity of Sniffy T. Pussygrabber, plus an endless barrage of "minor" scandals that would end the career of anyone less reprehensible to begin with, plus the 1-3 "kill shots" I expect to drop between now and then will erode his support to a core of dumb-as-rocks deplorables and no one else at all. All the other candidates will do a little better than expected. Hillary has a good shot at cracking 50%, but its far from a sure thing.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2016, 01:02:38 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2016, 01:04:15 AM by Interlocutor »
My prediction:

Clinton: 49%
Trump: 43%
Johnson: 6%
Stein/Others: 2%

Trump is gonna fall in the 41-44 range
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 14 queries.