NH-PPP: Hassan +1

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/786336536300232704

Not sure there's actually a link to the full poll, but this was conducted on behalf of Americans for Responsible Solutions (gun advocacy group):

Hassan - 44%
Ayotte- 43%

[Ronnie]

Ayotte running 10 points ahead of Trump is really concerning.  She might pull it off after all.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Excuse me but 43 minus 37 is six, not ten.

[Heisenberg]

Ayotte running 10 points ahead of Trump is really concerning.  She might pull it off after all.

I'd rather have Heck, Young, Johnson, Rubio, or Toomey in the Senate than Ayotte in the Senate, but hey, if the GOP holds this, great! Every seat counts!






Oh wait, 13% undecided. We all know who they will overwhelmingly break for. Never mind, still Safe D.

[windjammer]

A lead is a lead, but this is concerning

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Excuse me but 43 minus 37 is six, not ten.

Atlas uses the margin, not the raw % number. Anyways, Hassan only leading by one in an internal for a leftist group is just more evidence that this is a Toss-Up.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It seems like GOP Senate candidates are gaining ground in key states, even as Trump's poll numbers flag. This is a really interesting development.

[Gass3268]

Trump's going to drag Ayotte down.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It seems like GOP Senate candidates are gaining ground in key states, even as Trump's poll numbers flag. This is a really interesting development.

It's only October 12th. I expect to see the effects of Clinton's upcoming landslide in the polls for downballot races only a week and a half or so from election day.

     What, do coattails work on a time-delay now?

[Landslide Lyndon]

     It seems like GOP Senate candidates are gaining ground in key states, even as Trump's poll numbers flag. This is a really interesting development.

It's only October 12th. I expect to see the effects of Clinton's upcoming landslide in the polls for downballot races only a week and a half or so from election day.

     What, do coattails work on a time-delay now?

Come on dude, you're smart. Even in 2006 Webb inched ahead of Allen the last few days of the campaign, not after the Macaca gaffe or the Foley scandal.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It seems like GOP Senate candidates are gaining ground in key states, even as Trump's poll numbers flag. This is a really interesting development.

It's only October 12th. I expect to see the effects of Clinton's upcoming landslide in the polls for downballot races only a week and a half or so from election day.

     What, do coattails work on a time-delay now?

It wasn't apparent just how large the GOP wave would be in 2014 until about two weeks or so before the election. In the end, I expect that almost all of the tossup races will break to the winning party (this year: the Democrats).

     Judging by the reactions of Atlas Dems, it didn't seem too apparent even then.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It seems like GOP Senate candidates are gaining ground in key states, even as Trump's poll numbers flag. This is a really interesting development.

It's only October 12th. I expect to see the effects of Clinton's upcoming landslide in the polls for downballot races only a week and a half or so from election day.

     What, do coattails work on a time-delay now?

Come on dude, you're smart. Even in 2006 Webb inched ahead of Allen the last few days of the campaign, not after the Macaca gaffe or the Foley scandal.

     You're talking about something different here, and not something that really seems generally applicable. I would need a lot more examples than just George Allen to start making predictions based on a theory of time-delayed results, in part because it lies in the face of conventional logic that summer gaffes don't really matter since they have time to be forgotten. Also Allen's case doesn't involve coattails; the candidate himself made the fatal gaffe that sunk his campaign.

[KingSweden]

Dems have been really bad this cycle about responding in kind to GOP attacks

[Landslide Lyndon]

     It seems like GOP Senate candidates are gaining ground in key states, even as Trump's poll numbers flag. This is a really interesting development.

It's only October 12th. I expect to see the effects of Clinton's upcoming landslide in the polls for downballot races only a week and a half or so from election day.

     What, do coattails work on a time-delay now?

Come on dude, you're smart. Even in 2006 Webb inched ahead of Allen the last few days of the campaign, not after the Macaca gaffe or the Foley scandal.

     You're talking about something different here, and not something that really seems generally applicable. I would need a lot more examples than just George Allen to start making predictions based on a theory of time-delayed results, in part because it lies in the face of conventional logic that summer gaffes don't really matter since they have time to be forgotten. Also Allen's case doesn't involve coattails; the candidate himself made the fatal gaffe that sunk his campaign.

Donnelly and Heitkamp in 2012 pulled ahead the last few days before the election.
Also Udall (CO) and Merkley in 2008. That's from the top of my head.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Dems have been really bad this cycle about responding in kind to GOP attacks

And not talking about the Supreme Court.  That should be a winning issue this cycle.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Translation: Ayotte with slight lead.

Dems have been really bad this cycle about responding in kind to GOP attacks

Except for Kirk, who has been really bad this cycle about attacking his opponent to begin with.  Has he quit harping on the Syrian refugees yet?

[Ebsy]

Translation: Ayotte with slight lead.

Conclusion you might come to if you were a literal moron.

[Vosem]

Translation: Ayotte with slight lead.

Conclusion you might come to if you were a literal moron.

The translation can't be done that simply, but, yeah, a Democratic internal showing one of the largest Clinton leads in NH we've seen to date showing Hassan only up 1 is a terrible result. It's terrible because, firstly, internals usually do overstate friendly candidates at least somewhat, but secondly, it pretty strongly implies that Donald Trump's scandals aren't dragging Republican Senate candidates down much or at all. Which should be a very uncomfortable thought for Democrats, even if Hassan does lead by 1 point.

[RINO Tom]

Ayotte running 10 points ahead of Trump is really concerning.  She might pull it off after all.

I'd rather have Heck, Young, Johnson, Rubio, or Toomey in the Senate than Ayotte in the Senate, but hey, if the GOP holds this, great! Every seat counts!






Why?

Oh wait, 13% undecided. We all know who they will overwhelmingly break for. Never mind, still Safe D.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It seems like GOP Senate candidates are gaining ground in key states, even as Trump's poll numbers flag. This is a really interesting development.

It's only October 12th. I expect to see the effects of Clinton's upcoming landslide in the polls for downballot races only a week and a half or so from election day.

     What, do coattails work on a time-delay now?

Come on dude, you're smart. Even in 2006 Webb inched ahead of Allen the last few days of the campaign, not after the Macaca gaffe or the Foley scandal.

     You're talking about something different here, and not something that really seems generally applicable. I would need a lot more examples than just George Allen to start making predictions based on a theory of time-delayed results, in part because it lies in the face of conventional logic that summer gaffes don't really matter since they have time to be forgotten. Also Allen's case doesn't involve coattails; the candidate himself made the fatal gaffe that sunk his campaign.

Donnelly and Heitkamp in 2012 pulled ahead the last few days before the election.
Also Udall (CO) and Merkley in 2008. That's from the top of my head.

     Are these in response to scandals or just late movement? (And by scandals I don't count Mourdock being an awful candidate who should never have beaten Dick Lugar in the primaries. )

[Figueira]

538 is translating this to a tie FWIW.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...this is not a good result.

It seems like Republican candidates are holding just fine. F**k.

[Landslide Lyndon]

    It seems like GOP Senate candidates are gaining ground in key states, even as Trump's poll numbers flag. This is a really interesting development.

It's only October 12th. I expect to see the effects of Clinton's upcoming landslide in the polls for downballot races only a week and a half or so from election day.

     What, do coattails work on a time-delay now?

Come on dude, you're smart. Even in 2006 Webb inched ahead of Allen the last few days of the campaign, not after the Macaca gaffe or the Foley scandal.

     You're talking about something different here, and not something that really seems generally applicable. I would need a lot more examples than just George Allen to start making predictions based on a theory of time-delayed results, in part because it lies in the face of conventional logic that summer gaffes don't really matter since they have time to be forgotten. Also Allen's case doesn't involve coattails; the candidate himself made the fatal gaffe that sunk his campaign.

Donnelly and Heitkamp in 2012 pulled ahead the last few days before the election.
Also Udall (CO) and Merkley in 2008. That's from the top of my head.

     Are these in response to scandals or just late movement? (And by scandals I don't count Mourdock being an awful candidate who should never have beaten Dick Lugar in the primaries. )

Obviously it was late movement. These people had the wind on their backs and that's why they prevailed in those close contests. It's the same reason why Tom Tillis won despite being an awful candidate and trailing consistently during the entire campaign.
Like they say, "“Better to be lucky than good".

[swf541]

Excuse me but 43 minus 37 is six, not ten.

Atlas uses the margin, not the raw % number. Anyways, Hassan only leading by one in an internal for a leftist group is just more evidence that this is a Toss-Up.

Quite frankly I have always found the logic their outdoing someone by the margin vs raw number to be weird.

[Associate Justice PiT]

    It seems like GOP Senate candidates are gaining ground in key states, even as Trump's poll numbers flag. This is a really interesting development.

It's only October 12th. I expect to see the effects of Clinton's upcoming landslide in the polls for downballot races only a week and a half or so from election day.

     What, do coattails work on a time-delay now?

Come on dude, you're smart. Even in 2006 Webb inched ahead of Allen the last few days of the campaign, not after the Macaca gaffe or the Foley scandal.

     You're talking about something different here, and not something that really seems generally applicable. I would need a lot more examples than just George Allen to start making predictions based on a theory of time-delayed results, in part because it lies in the face of conventional logic that summer gaffes don't really matter since they have time to be forgotten. Also Allen's case doesn't involve coattails; the candidate himself made the fatal gaffe that sunk his campaign.

Donnelly and Heitkamp in 2012 pulled ahead the last few days before the election.
Also Udall (CO) and Merkley in 2008. That's from the top of my head.

     Are these in response to scandals or just late movement? (And by scandals I don't count Mourdock being an awful candidate who should never have beaten Dick Lugar in the primaries. )

Obviously it was late movement. These people had the wind on their backs and that's why they prevailed in those close contests. It's the same reason why Tom Tillis won despite being an awful candidate and trailing consistently during the entire campaign.
Like they say, "“Better to be lucky than good".

     Eh, can't disagree with that. I still find it odd that the Republicans would be making October gains in Senate polling if it's going to be a big Democratic year.