The rise and rise of Evan McMullin (formerly Egg McMuffin)

[Simfan34]

So we may very well end up with an election where third party candidates receive electoral votes and more than 5% of the popular vote-- and these would be different candidates! I have to say, reading McMullin's bio on Wikipedia I have to say I'm impressed. While I'm not sure this qualifies him to be president-- although he's probably more suited, qualifications-wise, than Trump-- it's a CV that most people could only dream of:

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I mean, that's an impressive career, and this guy's only 40! Now he might be able to add "Was first third-party candidate since 1968 to win a state." If Hatch retires in 2018 I imagine he'd be an early front-runner, as a proven favorite son.

Also, considering he volunteered for the UN in Amman, he's certainly going to know where Aleppo is.

[Pandaguineapig]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

[Lachi]

If he was to run for the senate in 2018, would he join up with the republicans, or run as an independent?

[Associate Justice PiT]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

     President McMullin, eh? Barely knowing anything about him I would take him for President over our other options.

[Simfan34]

Here is his LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/devanmcmullin

I mean, I have no idea what his political positions are, but I can't help but envy his resume. He'd be qualified for basically any kind of professional (non-technical) work. I assume he's pretty conservative, but given what we've seen of Mormons I imagine he has a respectable amount of personal integrity.

Again, bearing in mind I know nothing about his views other than that they comprise "principled conservatism", I'd probably write him in had Sanders been the Democratic nominee and Bloomberg not run.

[Pandaguineapig]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

     President McMullin, eh? Barely knowing anything about him I would take him for President over our other options.

I'm saying that the scenario is very unlikely but I Have no doubt Paul Ryan and other house leaders would throw their support to McMullin in a heartbeat

[Simfan34]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

     President McMullin, eh? Barely knowing anything about him I would take him for President over our other options.

I'm saying that the scenario is very unlikely but I Have no doubt Paul Ryan and other house leaders would throw their support to McMullin in a heartbeat

He should have waited another week to name his VP. If he had he could've reeled in someone big.

He also sounds insufficiently conservative for this guy. That could only be good. It notes that "He’s a big fan of microloans and other ways to make African women into leaders and entrepreneurs." Microfinance may not longer be the hottest thing around but any person who prioritises development cooperation enough to put it on their platform will earn points from me.

To be fair I think his chances of winning Utah are being overrated by this forum. But he is, in my view, far more deserving of our attention than Jill Stein.

[Arbitrage1980]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

No chance in hell because that assumes that the GOP is actually principled. There is NO way that House GOP members will risk arousing the ire of their base back home and potentially lose their primaries by virtue of voting for an independent candidate who received fewer votes than Trump and making him POTUS.

[Arbitrage1980]

Although I don't think it will happen, this could potentially be the first election since 1912 in which 4 candidates receive at least 5% of the popular vote. It would be even crazier if McMullin and Johnson manage to win at least one state, making it the first election since 1860 in which 4 candidates receive electoral votes via winning states (excluding 1872 when a bunch of Horace Greeley electors voted for random people because Greeley passed away before the electoral college met).

[Mr. Morden]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

No chance in hell because that assumes that the GOP is actually principled. There is NO way that House GOP members will risk arousing the ire of their base back home and potentially lose their primaries by virtue of voting for an independent candidate who received fewer votes than Trump and making him POTUS.

As Vosem notes here, in the unlikely event of an electoral college deadlock, there are enough anti-Trump Republicans in the House that there would almost certainly be a deadlock.  Neither Trump nor any other candidate would be able to win a majority of House delegations.  So if the GOP controls the Senate, then the House deadlocks, the Senate elects Pence as VP, and we get President Pence.  OTOH, if the Dems control the Senate, then the House Republicans have a strong incentive to reach a compromise, in order to avoid President Kaine.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

No chance in hell because that assumes that the GOP is actually principled. There is NO way that House GOP members will risk arousing the ire of their base back home and potentially lose their primaries by virtue of voting for an independent candidate who received fewer votes than Trump and making him POTUS.

As Vosem notes here, in the unlikely event of an electoral college deadlock, there are enough anti-Trump Republicans in the House that there would almost certainly be a deadlock.  Neither Trump nor any other candidate would be able to win a majority of House delegations.  So if the GOP controls the Senate, then the House deadlocks, the Senate elects Pence as VP, and we get President Pence.  OTOH, if the Dems control the Senate, then the House Republicans have a strong incentive to reach a compromise, in order to avoid President Kaine.

100% on board with McGinty now

[America Needs R'hllor]

This would be a really fun scenario. Would be ironic too if Johnson/Weld AREN'T the most memorable 3rd party ticket this year.
On a side note, do you think people like Chaffetz/Mike Lee/Huntsman/Mitt Romney may endorse McMullin now?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

Seeing a guy getting one state with single digits popular vote figure ending up as President? That would be... hilarious.

And would destroy the rest of credibility remaining with the U.S. electoral system.

[Simfan34]

Huntsman is exactly the sort of person I'd see endorsing him. I still don't understand what compelled him to endorse Trump in the first place. I also bet Weld is thinking he chose to run on the wrong ticket.

Vosem also said this back in August:

Presumably this is an opening act for either UT-Sen 2018 or UT-Gov 2020? More likely the former.

Well, his chances just got 10 percent higher!

[Simfan34]

Actually, imagine if Jon Huntsman was running as the "independent conservative", with McMullin as his VP. I wonder how much better he'd be doing now.

[SteveRogers]

So if McMullin were to indeed win Utah, how many of his 6 electors would cast their electoral votes for VP for Mindy Flinn and how many would vote for Nathan Johnson (who may or may not be a real person)? Anyone know if Utah has faithless elector laws. It'd be hilarious if that's how we finally got to see one of those challenged in court.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

No chance in hell because that assumes that the GOP is actually principled. There is NO way that House GOP members will risk arousing the ire of their base back home and potentially lose their primaries by virtue of voting for an independent candidate who received fewer votes than Trump and making him POTUS.

As Vosem notes here, in the unlikely event of an electoral college deadlock, there are enough anti-Trump Republicans in the House that there would almost certainly be a deadlock.  Neither Trump nor any other candidate would be able to win a majority of House delegations.  So if the GOP controls the Senate, then the House deadlocks, the Senate elects Pence as VP, and we get President Pence.  OTOH, if the Dems control the Senate, then the House Republicans have a strong incentive to reach a compromise, in order to avoid President Kaine.

Let's take this a step further.  Suppose the House deadlocks and the Senate is 50-50.  It's not at all clear that the sitting VP can break the tie in this case.  This probably goes to the Supreme Court...which is a justice short thanks to the GOP stonewalling since Scalia's death.  The court splits 4-4.  What happens next?  (Apart from liquor sales soaring.)

[Erc]

So if McMullin were to indeed win Utah, how many of his 6 electors would cast their electoral votes for VP for Mindy Flinn and how many would vote for Nathan Johnson (who may or may not be a real person)? Anyone know if Utah has faithless elector laws. It'd be hilarious if that's how we finally got to see one of those challenged in court.

It does, but, of course, they are ambiguous in this case.

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Evan McMullin's party is "Unaffiliated," so who was nominated as his VP?  The person who appears on the ballot (Johnson) or the person he says is his VP (Finn)?  Presumably the 6 electors would just meet in December, jointly decide on someone, and that'd be that.

Look forward to this in December.  (Of course, it doesn't matter in any conceivable scenario, as only the top 2 vote getters adavance to the Senate.)

[SWE]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

No chance in hell because that assumes that the GOP is actually principled. There is NO way that House GOP members will risk arousing the ire of their base back home and potentially lose their primaries by virtue of voting for an independent candidate who received fewer votes than Trump and making him POTUS.

As Vosem notes here, in the unlikely event of an electoral college deadlock, there are enough anti-Trump Republicans in the House that there would almost certainly be a deadlock.  Neither Trump nor any other candidate would be able to win a majority of House delegations.  So if the GOP controls the Senate, then the House deadlocks, the Senate elects Pence as VP, and we get President Pence.  OTOH, if the Dems control the Senate, then the House Republicans have a strong incentive to reach a compromise, in order to avoid President Kaine.

But wouldn't the lame duck Senate make the choice, so either way Pence wins?

[Mr. Morden]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

No chance in hell because that assumes that the GOP is actually principled. There is NO way that House GOP members will risk arousing the ire of their base back home and potentially lose their primaries by virtue of voting for an independent candidate who received fewer votes than Trump and making him POTUS.

As Vosem notes here, in the unlikely event of an electoral college deadlock, there are enough anti-Trump Republicans in the House that there would almost certainly be a deadlock.  Neither Trump nor any other candidate would be able to win a majority of House delegations.  So if the GOP controls the Senate, then the House deadlocks, the Senate elects Pence as VP, and we get President Pence.  OTOH, if the Dems control the Senate, then the House Republicans have a strong incentive to reach a compromise, in order to avoid President Kaine.

But wouldn't the lame duck Senate make the choice, so either way Pence wins?

No, I don't think so.  The new Congress is sworn in at the beginning of January, and that's when the electoral college results are read out.  The old Congress will have left town at that point.

[SteveRogers]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

No chance in hell because that assumes that the GOP is actually principled. There is NO way that House GOP members will risk arousing the ire of their base back home and potentially lose their primaries by virtue of voting for an independent candidate who received fewer votes than Trump and making him POTUS.

As Vosem notes here, in the unlikely event of an electoral college deadlock, there are enough anti-Trump Republicans in the House that there would almost certainly be a deadlock.  Neither Trump nor any other candidate would be able to win a majority of House delegations.  So if the GOP controls the Senate, then the House deadlocks, the Senate elects Pence as VP, and we get President Pence.  OTOH, if the Dems control the Senate, then the House Republicans have a strong incentive to reach a compromise, in order to avoid President Kaine.

But wouldn't the lame duck Senate make the choice, so either way Pence wins?

Under the law as it is now, the electoral votes are opened and counted by the new congress, and by the most straightforward reading of the Constitution that's when there's officially no majority and the House and Senate convene to choose the President and VP, respectively. Congress could pass a law moving back the date for counting the EVs such that the outgoing congress would get to break the deadlock, but of course Obama could veto.

[Erc]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

No chance in hell because that assumes that the GOP is actually principled. There is NO way that House GOP members will risk arousing the ire of their base back home and potentially lose their primaries by virtue of voting for an independent candidate who received fewer votes than Trump and making him POTUS.

As Vosem notes here, in the unlikely event of an electoral college deadlock, there are enough anti-Trump Republicans in the House that there would almost certainly be a deadlock.  Neither Trump nor any other candidate would be able to win a majority of House delegations.  So if the GOP controls the Senate, then the House deadlocks, the Senate elects Pence as VP, and we get President Pence.  OTOH, if the Dems control the Senate, then the House Republicans have a strong incentive to reach a compromise, in order to avoid President Kaine.

Let's take this a step further.  Suppose the House deadlocks and the Senate is 50-50.  It's not at all clear that the sitting VP can break the tie in this case.  This probably goes to the Supreme Court...which is a justice short thanks to the GOP stonewalling since Scalia's death.  The court splits 4-4.  What happens next?  (Apart from liquor sales soaring.)

It's pretty (though not crystal) clear that you need 51 ("the majority of the whole number," per the 12th Amendment) to make a choice, so Biden would not break the tie.

This would mean the Speaker would act as President, unless the House is so chaotic that they can't choose a Speaker, in which case it would pass to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate. That's an election that Biden can break a tie on, so (by custom) Pat Leahy would then act as President.  It's entirely possible they could pick some other Senator; Senate rules seem to indicate it must be a Senator, however.  [It's debatable whether this or a VT write-in campaign is Bernie's most plausible path to the Presidency this year. ]

[Fuzzy Bear]

NBC News just put out a poll for UT.

Clinton (D) 26%
Trump (R) 26%
McMullin (I) 24%

Eegads!

[Young Conservative]

McMullin for senate would be the absolute best

[Pandaguineapig]

Makes me wonder how David French or Tom Coburn could have done had they announced earlier, or how Gary johnson could have done if could act normal