Last minute expand map megathread - Spending & visits in AZ, GA, WI, NM, MI, MN

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/786020762553647105
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/us/politics/donald-trump-gop.html?referer=https://www.google.com/

We've heard this a million times already but with her polling advantage, in person early voting starting soon, and Trump at war with the GOP, seems like now or never.

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[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, we'll see. GA looked possible for Obama in 2008, until undecideds broke overwhelmingly for McCain. It looked like it would be decently close in 2014, even with the wave, until undecideds broke overwhelmingly for Perdue and Deal.

[Dr. Arch]

This might be the year given the difficulty of undecideds breaking for Trump.

[ApatheticAustrian]

obviously it gets easier each year and cycle....on the long run, at the moment, inevitable in presidential years.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, we'll see. GA looked possible for Obama in 2008, until undecideds broke overwhelmingly for McCain. It looked like it would be decently close in 2014, even with the wave, until undecideds broke overwhelmingly for Perdue and Deal.

Obama pulled out of Georgia in October and McCain was ahead in literally all but one poll in Georgia in 2008.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/alexburnsnyt/status/786024376877588480

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Give us some Georgia polls please 😎

[mark_twain]

Let's go Georgia!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRgWBN8yt_E

[HillOfANight]

In terms of field support, earlier would have been better, but I think turning on the ads now, informing swing voters of other Trump gaffes, as everyone talks gropegate, is perfect timing. In person voting starts in 6 days.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, we'll see. GA looked possible for Obama in 2008, until undecideds broke overwhelmingly for McCain. It looked like it would be decently close in 2014, even with the wave, until undecideds broke overwhelmingly for Perdue and Deal.

The situations are not comperable.

[pppolitics]

Stop talking and do it already!

[Xing]

THIS is the year to flip these states. Trump is the right candidate to put both of these states in play.

[Young Conservative]

THIS is the year to flip these states. Trump is the right candidate to put both of these states in play.

Even if they swing left this year it won't last. Even a candidate like Ted Cruz or Rand Paul can easily win both states and Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio would win both against any democrat easily. Emphasis on Paul Ryan.

[Xing]

THIS is the year to flip these states. Trump is the right candidate to put both of these states in play.

Even if they swing left this year it won't last. Even a candidate like Ted Cruz or Rand Paul can easily win both states and Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio would win both against any democrat easily. Emphasis on Paul Ryan.

These states could be trending Democratic, which would mean that a win in them this year would be "ahead of schedule", similar to North Carolina going for Obama in 2008. That might mean that a more generic R would win them back in 2020, but that there would be precedent for them to flip in the future.

[Adam Griffin]

Well, we'll see. GA looked possible for Obama in 2008, until undecideds broke overwhelmingly for McCain. It looked like it would be decently close in 2014, even with the wave, until undecideds broke overwhelmingly for Perdue and Deal.

Obama pulled out of Georgia in October and McCain was ahead in literally all but one poll in Georgia in 2008.

Actually, the campaign pulled out all of its paid field resources around Labor Day in 2008. There were still volunteers and a few TV spots I think, but the bulk of the campaign's work was gone well before October.

[Dr. Arch]

If Trump has to spend the last month of the campaign + resources defending states like GA, AZ, SC, AK, and UT, he's already toast.

[BoAtlantis]

I read a study somewhere that spending hundred millions of dollars in campaign net you maybe 1 % higher vote than you'd otherwise have gotten. It isn't worth it.

I'd like to see her run up the score on her blue firewall. GA and AZ are nice but empirically, states that flirt with low margins usually end up nodding it to the favorite. Republicans always get excited at tight margins in WI, MI, and PA in some noisy polls but they always nod blue in the end. AZ and GA are the same, conceptually.

I'd love to be proven wrong but Hillary won't win those two.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I read a study somewhere that spending hundred millions of dollars in campaign net you maybe 1 % higher vote than you'd otherwise have gotten. It isn't worth it.

I'd like to see her run up the score on her blue firewall. GA and AZ are nice but empirically, states that flirt with low margins usually end up nodding it to the favorite. Republicans always get excited at tight margins in WI, MI, and PA in some noisy polls but they always nod blue in the end. AZ and GA are the same, conceptually.

I'd love to be proven wrong but Hillary won't win those two.

I think this is exactly the wrong election to be relying too much on patterns and normal election practices.

[Lyin' Steve]

I read a study somewhere that spending hundred millions of dollars in campaign net you maybe 1 % higher vote than you'd otherwise have gotten. It isn't worth it.

I'd like to see her run up the score on her blue firewall. GA and AZ are nice but empirically, states that flirt with low margins usually end up nodding it to the favorite. Republicans always get excited at tight margins in WI, MI, and PA in some noisy polls but they always nod blue in the end. AZ and GA are the same, conceptually.

I'd love to be proven wrong but Hillary won't win those two.

I think this is exactly the wrong election to be relying too much on patterns and normal election practices.

If I was Clinton I'd be going hard hard hard in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida, because time spent in those states is worth double due to it helping Senate candidates (the Portman race is over).  Although Pat Murphy doesn't deserve help from anyone, lying bastard.  I'd target Missouri and Indiana over Arizona and Georgia for similar reasons, help Kander and Bayh with your presence (McCain race is also over).

Go after Republicans, tie the whole party to Trump.  Throw as many wrenches in the works as possible to troll them.  The best outcome of this election isn't taking the house, it's leading the deplorables to break away from the normal Republicans and either form their own party or just not turn out to vote for Paul Ryan and company.  After all, if the Sanders children won't turn up to vote because they think Hillary and Trump are both equally bad, surely the idiots on the Trump side can be convinced to not turn up in the midterm election because both the Republicans and the Democrats are equally bad?

Of course it's all a little nerve-wracking because the stakes for the presidential election are far, far higher than for the senate election.  So if she loses by one point because she tried to help the senate candidates rather than going 100% all-in on her own campaign, I don't know how you ever get over that.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Usher, Tyra Banks among celebs stumping for Hillary Clinton this weekend
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/27/usher-tyra-banks-among-celebs-stumping-for-hillary-clinton-this-weekend/

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http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/27/donald-trumps-campaign-scouting-locations-saturday-rally/92534068/

[ProudModerate2]

It would be great to see trump lose Arizona after wasting so much time and resources there.
Come-on AZ .... Vote Clinton !

[Gass3268]

Trump is campaigning in Arizona for the 7th time in the general election, while Hillary currently has nothing scheduled for the weekend.

[Rand]

She is reaping the benefits of A) Winning, and B) Having popular surrogates like Bill, Joe Biden, Tim Kaine, and President Obama on her side--all of whom are campaigning on her behalf this weekend. When she takes downtime she has an army far more popular than herself to deploy. When Donald takes downtime...who's he going to deploy? Pence? Giuliani? Gingrich? Please.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is campaigning in Arizona for the 7th time in the general election, while Hillary currently has nothing scheduled for the weekend.

That's because Trump is the most energetic, healthiest person ever to run for President, while Hillary Clinton doesn't have any stamina, and has to nap all weekend to recover from her low-energy femininity.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Trump is campaigning in Arizona for the 7th time in the general election, while Hillary currently has nothing scheduled for the weekend.

I believe she'll be in Florida on Sat...  but having that much flexibility and cash gives me pause to think they're not going to play the next week completely safe.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

That's because Trump is the most energetic, healthiest person ever to run for President, while Hillary Clinton doesn't have any stamina, and has to nap all weekend to recover from her low-energy femininity.

Best words!