538: Here's how the election would look if only one gender voted

[angus]

"Whom" is mostly going the way of "thee" and "thou".

exactly, as is good governance, and for the same reasons.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Nice joke.

He's not wrong.

He's absolutely wrong, most of those states are pathetic in every statistic, and vile culturally.

Alabama and Wyoming are 2 of the top 5 or 6 states in the country, but yeah the rest are pretty dire

[OSR stands with Israel]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

worst as they are not that business friendly and too rural

[Young Conservative]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Nice joke.

He's not wrong.

He's absolutely wrong, most of those states are pathetic in every statistic, and vile culturally.

I think you're statements quantify as bigotry.

[Mr. Morden]

Similarly, a YouGov poll last week found that there is a gap between who married men think their wives will vote for, and how married women plan to vote:



Shy Hillary voters? Discuss.

How is that a shy Clinton effect?  A "Shy X" effect is when people are reluctant to tell pollsters their true voting intentions.  Here they are telling the pollsters their voting intentions.  They're just not telling their husbands.

Presumably some people are answering polls in front of their family members, so there will be some women who don't tell pollsters their true intentions because they don't want their husbands to hear.

However, the opposite effect might still exist, and in some cases it could simply be couples not talking about politics with each other.

So you're saying that the fact that there's a gap between what married women say their voting intentions are and what their husbands think suggests that the gap is even bigger, because there might be additional women who are lying to pollsters, who actually support Clinton?

I don't think there's any way to tell if that's the sense in which there's lying going on.  For all we know, the husbands are the ones telling pollsters the truth about their wives' voting intentions, and the discrepancy occurs because some Trump-supporting women don't want to tell pollsters that they support Trump.  So this could just as easily indicate a "Shy Trump" effect as a "Shy Clinton" effect.  How can we possibly know which way these effects are running from the data at hand?

[Figueira]

For the record, I love Kentucky, Louisiana, and Utah.

Similarly, a YouGov poll last week found that there is a gap between who married men think their wives will vote for, and how married women plan to vote:



Shy Hillary voters? Discuss.

How is that a shy Clinton effect?  A "Shy X" effect is when people are reluctant to tell pollsters their true voting intentions.  Here they are telling the pollsters their voting intentions.  They're just not telling their husbands.

Presumably some people are answering polls in front of their family members, so there will be some women who don't tell pollsters their true intentions because they don't want their husbands to hear.

However, the opposite effect might still exist, and in some cases it could simply be couples not talking about politics with each other.

So you're saying that the fact that there's a gap between what married women say their voting intentions are and what their husbands think suggests that the gap is even bigger, because there might be additional women who are lying to pollsters, who actually support Clinton?

I don't think there's any way to tell if that's the sense in which there's lying going on.  For all we know, the husbands are the ones telling pollsters the truth about their wives' voting intentions, and the discrepancy occurs because some Trump-supporting women don't want to tell pollsters that they support Trump.  So this could just as easily indicate a "Shy Trump" effect as a "Shy Clinton" effect.  How can we possibly know which way these effects are running from the data at hand?

Like I said, it also depends on whether it's a case of women being afraid of openly disagreeing with their domineering sexist husbands, or simply men assuming that their wives agree with them even though they don't.

Either way, we clearly don't have enough information to know.

[Kalimantan]

The first map is plausibly the actual map, or close to it, which suggests the level of Trump's collapse amongst women may drown out the gap in the male vote

[Likely Voter]

Via Guardian

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[Kingpoleon]

Similarly, a YouGov poll last week found that there is a gap between who married men think their wives will vote for, and how married women plan to vote:



Shy Hillary voters? Discuss.

Women and men had gaps there. Oops.

[Blackacre]

The Atlas-red states in the second map are literally the best states in America.

Fix'd for you

[Hydera]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

I can see you were typing that without a straight face.