NBC/WSJ National Poll: Clinton +9 4Way Clinton +10 2Way

[Wiz in Wis]

Yeah... this is going to have to be stated clearly... this is not a new poll, this is just another day added to the old poll.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Yeah... this is going to have to be stated clearly... this is not a new poll, this is just another day added to the old poll.

yeah, but nearly double the number of people participating.

[Seriously?]

the first sample was too small....this here is "rightish"

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/post-debate-poll-shows-clinton-holding-9-point-lead-over-n664541

Special sauce from an extra special pollster that is paid hundreds of thousands of dollars by Hillary Clinton Super Pacs.

Put out a dishonest poll, have the media create a false narrative then revise the poll with "another day" of polling.

[john cage bubblegum]

The initial +11 poll had a very small sample size for a national poll (approximately 450 LVs, I believe?), so this is pretty much statistical noise.  With the Pussygate video, the debate, and now Trump going nuclear on the Republican Party all happening in just a few days, we're in a very fluid situation.  Voters are still absorbing all of this, and it will take a bit more time for the polls to fully "price in" all the information people have received.

Overall, I think we can say that Hillary is in a fantastic position, and I eagerly wait further high-quality polling to see how strong her lead is.

Based on standard polling conventions and statistical practices, the Clinton +9 3 day average is the only number that should have ever been reported for this poll.  One-day polls of a presidential race are statistical malpractice.

I agree.  I suppose NBC saw an opportunity to release an additional "poll" that was perfectly timed to capture the "response" to Pussygate.  But I think the better thing to do was wait until they had the full poll, and if they want to reveal the single day post-debate subsample, then fine.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Put out a dishonest poll, have the media create a false narrative then revise the poll with "another day" of polling.

i am quite sure, ryan knows why he is panicking

[Dr. Arch]

the first sample was too small....this here is "rightish"

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/post-debate-poll-shows-clinton-holding-9-point-lead-over-n664541

Special sauce from an extra special pollster that is paid hundreds of thousands of dollars by Hillary Clinton Super Pacs.

Put out a dishonest poll, have the media create a false narrative then revise the poll with "another day" of polling.

What happened to the data points? You're all over the place now.

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav %:
Clinton 38/51% for -13%
Trump 30/63% for -33%

“What do you think Republican candidates for Congress should do on [the issue of the Trump hot mic]?”
Responses from Republican voters:
-continue to support Trump as the nominee 74%
-call on Trump to drop out of the race 10%
-say they can’t support him anymore 8%
-not sure 8%

[ApatheticAustrian]

cri cra crosstabs

https://de.scribd.com/document/327216789/Public-161027-NBCWSJ-October-N900-Poll-10-11-RELEASE

[Fusionmunster]

This poll is a mess. I'll wait for the polls later this week with proper polling cycles.

[ApatheticAustrian]

nobody should wait for more clinton +10 polls...but i guess we are in for stone-solid +5 to +7.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

nobody should wait for more clinton +10 polls...but i guess we are in for stone-solid +5 to +7.

That's basically where the national polls were before Pussygate, actually a few were there even before the debate. I was expecting 7-9%, but maybe it was too much to wish for.

[Dr. Arch]

nobody should wait for more clinton +10 polls...but i guess we are in for stone-solid +5 to +7.

That's basically where the national polls were before Pussygate, actually a few were there even before the debate. I was expecting 7-9%, but maybe it was too much to wish for.

If not 7-9, then the 5-7 would bake in at the least, essentially.

[mark_twain]

Great news, even though the margin is lower from the previous poll.

It just means that the Clinton's actual margin is beginning to stabilize at around +9 or +10, which is a great improvement over the previous week.

[ApatheticAustrian]

you are all correct, that the polls were at that level before but that was with a more volatile elecorate and many waves in the one or the other direction.

if my assumption is correct, this +5% lead should be solid and not vulnerable to big bounces.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This looks like regression toward the mean - which implies that Clinton's lead IS around +9. Which is great news.

[ApatheticAustrian]

well, this always has been one of her stronger polls....if the other polls, which show her tied a month ago, adjust to +6/+7, i will sleep better.


Clinton is winning all college grads by 21 points in our new poll. Romney won them by 4 points in 2012.
https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/785926144222597121?lang=de

[Gass3268]

Trump/Pence has never polled above 40% in the 4 way...

Also Clinton has never seen her personal number decline and it only was level between the switch from RV to LV.

[ApatheticAustrian]

thanks to "morning trump" twitter is filled with RIGGED NUMBERS shouters regarding this poll.

[Ronnie]

"Among only those respondents contacted after the debate, Clinton leads Trump by seven points in both a 4-way matchup and in a H2H"

https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/785905959482847236

That's about what I expected.  Trump's second debate performance increased his floor by bringing disaffected Republicans back into the fold, but also lowered his ceiling.

[Eraserhead]

They polled the race again already? Weird.

[Likely Voter]

They polled the race again already? Weird.

Not "again" more like "kept going". Essentially they did a 3 day poll (SAT/SUN/MON) but they released the first two days worth of data (from before the debate) yesterday and a complete set (with extra large Monday sample) today. It is a bit weird.

I guess the Monday released version of the poll is an interesting data point for an idea how bad it can get in the middle of a horrible s--tstorm.  But I still think they should have done a clean 2 or 3 day sample entirely after the debate and not mixed the samples.

[dspNY]

This sounds a lot more plausible than Clinton +14

[Badger]

There are fairly few undecided/persuadable voters left in America, by they still add up to a few percentage. Is there any serious doubt which way they're ultimately going to break hard towards?