IN-WTHR/HPI: Bayh +1

[Skye]

Bayh (D) 42
Young (R) 41
Brenton (L) 8

http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-senate-battle-a-dead-heat

Still a tossup for me.

[Skye]

Wow... encouraging! Come on, Young!

Bayh hasn't really been the best candidate... and even with the +$10M and name ID he isn't polling really well. I guess being a Democrat in Indiana leaves little room for errors.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If Bayh can really only overperform Clinton by 6, he is toast.

[Slow Learner]

Bottler Bayh.

[windjammer]

Well it's a toss up lol

[KingSweden]

Whoa! So much for Safe D Indiana

[Xing]

Yeah, this is a toss-up.

[windjammer]

Honestly,
Had Trump no imploded, I would be thinking that Bayh would be likely toast.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, this is a toss-up.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I would be very interested to see a Clinton administration with a Republican Senate (a result fairly likely if Bayh can't take IN-SEN).

[SATW]

Go Young! Both are Massive FFs, but #PartyLoyalty

[Ebsy]

I think Bayh wins comfortably. I doubt the internals are showing a close race.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think Bayh wins comfortably. I doubt the internals are showing a close race.

Internals aren't reliable.

[Pandaguineapig]

I think Bayh wins comfortably. I doubt the internals are showing a close race.

Internals aren't reliable.

Both parties have moved money into this race, but feel free to pretend bayh is still up 20

[jamestroll]

I hope Bayh wins.

Yes, I understand that he is being seen as somewhat of an opportunist, but I certainly think he will win. It would be a great night if the only two rust belt states*** that vote for Trump, also elect Democratic Senators.

It has not been since 2004 that Bayh has won a statewide election in Indiana, so I am not entirely surprised that this race has closed. He is not my style of "moderate Democrat", but he is better then the Republican.

***Due to national climate and state of the race, I am inclined to believe Ohio will vote for Clinton, just by a very narrow margin. Indiana will be +10 for Trump , and Missouri will close but will be a Trump victory.

[KingSweden]

Should be pointed out that even if Bayh is not steamrolling Young like he was initially, this race was a Safe R ahold before he got in

[heatcharger]

I just can't imagine what a Trump/Gregg/Young voter looks like. Wouldn't ticket splitters want a name they know like Bayh and then a Republican to replace their beloved Mike Pence? It just seems odd.

[Gass3268]

I think Bayh wins comfortably. I doubt the internals are showing a close race.

Internals aren't reliable.

This is a lie, especially on the Dem side.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I just can't imagine what a Trump/Gregg/Young voter looks like. Wouldn't ticket splitters want a name they know like Bayh and then a Republican to replace their beloved Mike Pence? It just seems odd.

Want Trump to have power to enact his agenda + not opposed to the state democratic party (state parties are often seen as separate enitities from the National party). Or maybe they  don't like that Bayh was installed as the nominee vs. a proper primary or the fact that Bayh is a lobbyist.

[jamestroll]

Should be pointed out that even if Bayh is not steamrolling Young like he was initially, this race was a Safe R ahold before he got in

Yes! This is often overlooked.

I am inclined to believe Bayh would win. But, I think he was over hyped at first. It has been 12 years since has has won a statewide contest in Indiana and about six since he actually held office.

But he is favored, even if slightly.

[Gass3268]

I think Bayh wins comfortably. I doubt the internals are showing a close race.

Internals aren't reliable.

This is a lie, especially on the Dem side.

Democrats wouldn't be spending so much money here if their internals were showing a wide Bayh lead.

I don't disagree with that, I'm calling out the idea that internals aren't reliable.

[Figueira]

This isn't surprising. Indiana is not a race that Democrats have in the bag.

On the bright side (for Bayh) this is a Republican-leaning pollster apparently.

[Figueira]

If Bayh can really only overperform Clinton by 6, he is toast.

Not toast (because the presidential race in Indiana may well be close) but this race probably won't decide Senate control. Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and possibly Missouri could easily be more Democratic than this.

If Trump manages to tighten the race nationwide, then yeah, I can't see Bayh winning.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If Bayh can really only overperform Clinton by 6, he is toast.

Not toast (because the presidential race in Indiana may well be close) but this race probably won't decide Senate control. Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and possibly Missouri could easily be more Democratic than this.

If Trump manages to tighten the race nationwide, then yeah, I can't see Bayh winning.

I think Trump will probably lose, but that it will be closer than 2012.  So, this poll and the fundamentals of Indiana makes me call this race Tilt R.  I expected Young to be down more at this stage.

[Heisenberg]

I think Young will narrowly win. Glad to see the race within one point, I would have expected Young to be down by about 4.