What would the Cook PVI of New Mexico be in this scenario?
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  What would the Cook PVI of New Mexico be in this scenario?
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Author Topic: What would the Cook PVI of New Mexico be in this scenario?  (Read 421 times)
AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 05, 2016, 08:15:23 PM »

I am not saying that this will occur, but let's start with this hypothetical election result:

Clinton wins nationally 51-45, a margin of 6 points. In New Mexico, she wins 50-40, a margin of 10 points, with Johnson picking up about 10% of the vote. Since Clinton won by a higher margin in New Mexico than she did nationally, New Mexico voted to the left of the nation, but what would the Cook PVI of New Mexico be? Clinton got 1 percentage point less in New Mexico than she did nationwide, so would the PVI then be D-1?
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2016, 08:17:48 PM »

I don't think so.  I think that it also looks like R-5 from the Republican side.  Averaging them out (to come from both sides), you get D+2.  Then, they average it with the 2012 numbers (D+4), so they would publish it with New Mexico as a D+3 state
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2016, 08:37:16 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2016, 08:39:42 PM by cinyc »

Cook PVI is calculated using the 2-party percentage, not the overall percentage.  It is also an average of the last two cycles.  I think NM In the 2012 cycle (i.e. the difference for just 2012, not 2008+2012) was D+3.33.  Under your hypothetical, the 2016 cycle would be D+2.43.  (51/(51+45)=.5313; 50/(50+40)=.5556; .5556-.5313=.0243).  Averaging the two would come up with a hypothetical 2018 National PVI of D+2.88. Cook would round that up to D+3, which is pretty much what ExtremeRepublican said.
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2016, 09:05:11 PM »

I see. Thanks for the explanations.
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