Fairleigh Dickinson National: Clinton +10/+9

[Wiz in Wis]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
If you squint, you can see it is weighted 1.03 (low due to only 385 likely voters).

Yeah... these morons split their sample and then asked the other 350 plus people to choose between Clinton, Trump, and two non-candidates. Thanks for nothing FDU!

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is an A poll? Wow.

Still probably an outlier, but... those are the kind of outliers you want to have.

[pbrower2a]

Change in the reality of polling often appears as outliers.

I just saw a poll that showed Clinton up 1 in Iowa and tied in Georgia.

[windjammer]

That margin seems too favourable for Clinton.

[ProudModerate2]

Great poll!
A-rated, and excellent result!

[BlueSwan]

Still probably an outlier, but... those are the kind of outliers you want to have.

I don't see why. MoE is 5%, so the poll has Clinton leading by 4%-14%. The lower part of that spectrum seems in line with general polling.

[Fargobison]

Interesting...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Still probably an outlier, but... those are the kind of outliers you want to have.

I don't see why. MoE is 5%, so the poll has Clinton leading by 4%-14%. The lower part of that spectrum seems in line with general polling.

MoE applies to their results, not to their spread.  So with a 50-40 result, MoE of 5% means that there is 95% confidence that Clinton is between 45 and 55, while Trump is between 35 and 45.

[BlueSwan]

Still probably an outlier, but... those are the kind of outliers you want to have.

I don't see why. MoE is 5%, so the poll has Clinton leading by 4%-14%. The lower part of that spectrum seems in line with general polling.

MoE applies to their results, not to their spread.  So with a 50-40 result, MoE of 5% means that there is 95% confidence that Clinton is between 45 and 55, while Trump is between 35 and 45.

True, I was taking a mental nap there. But that makes the possible spread even wider with a Clinton lead anywhere from 0% to 20% in the 2-way and from 19% to actually being behind by 1 point in the 4-way. Shame about the small sample size.