Why are Ohio and Pennsylvania diverging so much?

[Xing]

Pennsylvania has been consistently to the left of Ohio in presidential elections, but generally not by more than 5 or 6%. They were only 2.5% apart in 2012. They're demographically fairly similar, and while Pennsylvania has a slightly higher percentage of college graduates, that wouldn't seem to be an explanation by itself. Why is it looking like the gap between these two states could be 10% or possibly even more?

[MasterJedi]

Philadelphia

[Sbane]

I don't think they are. A few weeks ago when Ohio was looking like it was about Trump +2-3, we had a few polls come out showing Clinton leading Pennsylvania by only 2-3. We have got a spate of Pennsylvania polls come out after the debate but only one out of Ohio, which might be an outlier. Yes, there has been movement since 2012, but Pennsylvania being about 6 points more Democratic than Ohio isn't unprecedented. That is where I feel the race is right now. According to Fivethirtyeight's nowcast, Ohio would be tied if the election was today, and Clinton would win Pennsylvania by 6. Sounds about right.

[dspNY]

I don't think they are. A few weeks ago when Ohio was looking like it was about Trump +2-3, we had a few polls come out showing Clinton leading Pennsylvania by only 2-3. We have got a spate of Pennsylvania polls come out after the debate but only one out of Ohio, which might be an outlier. Yes, there has been movement since 2012, but Pennsylvania being about 6 points more Democratic than Ohio isn't unprecedented. That is where I feel the race is right now. According to Fivethirtyeight's nowcast, Ohio would be tied if the election was today, and Clinton would win Pennsylvania by 6. Sounds about right.

I don't think they are either. I think the media is trying to pump up this "Trump invincible in Ohio" narrative to keep interest in the horserace. They won't diverge by more than 7-8 points come Election Day, especially with the early vote and Clinton's ground game cutting the margins

[Sbane]

I don't think they are. A few weeks ago when Ohio was looking like it was about Trump +2-3, we had a few polls come out showing Clinton leading Pennsylvania by only 2-3. We have got a spate of Pennsylvania polls come out after the debate but only one out of Ohio, which might be an outlier. Yes, there has been movement since 2012, but Pennsylvania being about 6 points more Democratic than Ohio isn't unprecedented. That is where I feel the race is right now. According to Fivethirtyeight's nowcast, Ohio would be tied if the election was today, and Clinton would win Pennsylvania by 6. Sounds about right.

I don't think they are either. I think the media is trying to pump up this "Trump invincible in Ohio" narrative to keep interest in the horserace. They won't diverge by more than 7-8 points come Election Day, especially with the early vote and Clinton's ground game cutting the margins

I think Clinton wins Ohio in the end. I am not as confident about Iowa but it should be close either way.

[BlueSwan]

The apparent OH-PA split and IA-WI split this year has been very crious this election cycle. It will be interesting to see the final results because the polls are not lining up with usual expectations for how these states vote in comparison to each other. Also, North Carolina already seemingly being to the left of Ohio and Iowa is quite surprising.

[Mallow]

The apparent OH-PA split and IA-WI split this year has been very crious this election cycle. It will be interesting to see the final results because the polls are not lining up with usual expectations for how these states vote in comparison to each other. Also, North Carolina already seemingly being to the left of Ohio and Iowa is quite surprising.

Yep, on a list of surprising mismatched-polling-pairs so far, I'd definitely include IA/WI, OH/PA, OH&IA/NC, ME/NH, and NV/CO.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ohio has a R-leaning metro in Cincinnati.  It might be the most right-leaning major metro in the northern US.  The only Democrats Hamilton County ever voted for were LBJ and Obama, and in 2000, 2004, and 2012 the number of GOP votes in the county (usually around 200k) has been larger than the margin of victory statewide.

Take Cincy away, and Republicans would have a much harder time picking it up.

[elcorazon]

southern Ohio is southern. Southeastern Ohio is coal country. What's the minority population in Ohio relative to Pennsylvania?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

southern Ohio is southern. Southeastern Ohio is coal country. What's the minority population in Ohio relative to Pennsylvania?

The white population of Cincinnati is conservative German Catholic.  It's more like Milwaukee or St. Louis than anything else.  Note how Republican the white populations of those two cities vote, and I'm guessing you'll see a similar pattern.

[dspNY]

So much for Ohio being on the back burner. President Obama will rally for Hillary next Friday (October 14) in OH

[Ljube]

I don't think they are. I think the pollsters are wrong and we'll see if they are wrong about PA and WI, or about OH and IA.