Will Iowa and Wisconsin diverge this year?

[mencken]

Iowa:

2012: Obama 52, Romney 46
2008: Obama 54, McCain 44
2004: Kerry 49, Bush 50
2000: Gore 49, Bush 48
1996: Clinton 50, Dole 40
1992: Clinton 43, Bush 37
1988: Dukakis 55, Bush 45
1984: Reagan 53, Mondale 46

Wisconsin:

2012: Obama 53, Romney 46
2008: Obama 56, McCain 42
2004: Kerry 50, Bush 49
2000: Gore 48, Bush 48
1996: Clinton 49, Dole 38
1992: Clinton 41, Bush 37
1988: Dukakis 51, Bush 48
1984: Reagan 54, Mondale 45

Aside from 2008 and 1988 these states have voted pretty closely to one another (and even then, the direction was the same.) Several polls have shown Iowa being in Trump's column, while Wisconsin's sparse polling has indicated a Clinton lead (although Marquette only shows her up 3.) Might Wisconsin follow her southwestern neighbor into Trump's column, or will the trend of the last eight elections be broken?

[Xing]

It seems like there will be a larger gap this year. It makes sense, since Wisconsin has a higher percentage of voters with a college degree, and more large cities.

[Dr. Arch]

No doubt. Our sad cousin is moving away from us.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No doubt. Our sad cousin is moving away from us.

I wouldn't read any kind of trend into it.  Had someone like Mike Pence (who is a really good fit for the Badger State) been the nominee, you'd see WI and IA move in opposite directions.

Wisconsin's left-right divide is entrenched.  Iowa is much more flexible, as far as I can tell.

[Ljube]

They will probably stay close.

[Maxwell]

I suspect Wisconsin votes solidly to Iowa's left this year.

[ursulahx]

Depends how many voters Scott Walker succeeds in suppressing.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Depends how many voters Scott Walker succeeds in suppressing.

Obama's 2012 vote margin in Dane County (132,427) represented over 4% of total votes cast.  Good luck suppressing educated, wealthy liberals.

Trump needs a surge in turnout in the WOW counties to make it even close, and that's not going to happen.

[Sbane]

Iowa and Nevada have been the most surprising states this cycle. I think there will be at least a 5-6 point gap between Iowa and Wisconsin, if not more. It should be noted that Iowa did over perform for Obama in 2012 versus the RCP average. Will that happen again this year for Clinton?

[TC 25]

The Madison and Milwaukee libs should be enough for Hillary to squeak it out, but a Trump win isn't out of the question.  Walker won the state three times.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Depends how many voters Scott Walker succeeds in suppressing.

Almost none, since a federal judge gutted his voter ID law. It's technically still on the books but effectively unenforceable

[elcorazon]

actually while they've been pretty close to each other, I can see an oh so slight divergence going on. Iowa started off slightly left of Wisconsin, and is now slightly right of Wisconsin. Perhaps this year it will be a more dramatic move, but these changes aren't generally linear. I don't think they will be more than 6 points apart, probably less but that's not a huge shift frankly.

Hillary will win both states.