CBS/NYT National: Clinton +6/+4

[heatcharger]

Link.

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 41%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3%

Poll was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 2. 1501 LV.

[Ronnie]

Yeah, I think it's clear we're dealing with a mid-single digit race right now.  Clinton hasn't put Trump away just yet, but she's in the driver's seat.

[Dr. Arch]

Yeah, I think it's clear we're dealing with a mid-single digit race right now.  Clinton hasn't put Trump away just yet, but she's in the driver's seat.

We've yet to see the full effects of the tax scandal and his most recent string of absurd comments.

[Ebsy]

Great growth for Clinton.

[Maxwell]

No way that's accurate if Clinton is up 11 in CO, 5 in FL, etc.

Unless Florida is now a left of center state and some other states are trending Trump (see: Ohio, Iowa).

Great news is now Clinton voters are more excited about voting for her than Trump's voters are about voting for him. Yuge development.

also notable - third party voters are not excited at all about voting for them, which means they will probably evaporate fast on election day as is normal. Sticking with my prediction of Johnson at 2.5-3% then.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[Mr. Morden]

[Ebsy]

The black voter crosstab is bullsh**t.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No way that's accurate if Clinton is up 11 in CO, 5 in FL, etc.

Expecting all the polls to be in some kind of lockstep with each other is simply ridiculous.  The polls are conducted by different pollsters -- which means different methodologies and models -- over possibly different time periods.  And even if they were all by the SAME pollster, it would be normal for the polls to vary somewhat around the mean.  It's more normal than all of them clustering together! 

None of these results are inconsistent with a Clinton lead of 4 points (+/-1) at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The black voter crosstab is bullsh**t.

I can't get to the original results right now, but with a total sample of 1501 this subsample is probably in the 250-300 range, so the subsample MOE is going to be quite large.

[ApatheticAustrian]

regarding the last few weeks, we should be more than happy if those +4 results are real.

[dspNY]

Link.

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 41%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3%

Poll was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 2. 1501 LV.

This is a shift of 4 points in both the 2 and 4 way trial heats

[Ebsy]

If Clinton is only down 12 with white voters and up by 12 with White College Grads, assuming roughly equal turnout and support with black voters and Latinos (favorable assumption for Trump), Clinton will win by double digits.

[Classic Conservative]

If Clinton is only down 12 with white voters and up by 12 with White College Grads, assuming roughly equal turnout and support with black voters and Latinos (favorable assumption for Trump), Clinton will win by double digits.

Unskewing

[Ebsy]

If Clinton is only down 12 with white voters and up by 12 with White College Grads, assuming roughly equal turnout and support with black voters and Latinos (favorable assumption for Trump), Clinton will win by double digits.

Unskewing

I'm just commenting on demographics. There has been a lot of interesting discussion on how poll could show Clinton improving with white voters across the board relative to Obama and yet not be ahead by a lot.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Clinton is only down 12 with white voters and up by 12 with White College Grads, assuming roughly equal turnout and support with black voters and Latinos (favorable assumption for Trump), Clinton will win by double digits.

Unskewing

No, that's logic.

You'd need non-white turnout to not just drop, but tank.

[dspNY]

Clinton leads slightly on the enthusiasm question: 76% of her supporters are extremely or mostly enthusiastic. 73% of Trump's are extremely or mostly enthusiastic

[DrScholl]

If Clinton is only down 12 with white voters and up by 12 with White College Grads, assuming roughly equal turnout and support with black voters and Latinos (favorable assumption for Trump), Clinton will win by double digits.

Unskewing

Not at all. If Trump trails with college educated white voters by that much, he would lose big.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hillary can not be up 4 with white women but only up 4 nationally. If she's winning white women or even drawing even that's a major swing.

[bilaps]

Pretty confident that the race nationaly is now 4pts Clinton. It's really isn't that bad for Trump given everything that happened. I think if Trump would pool out of remaining debates he would actualy do better and the race would be tighter.

[ProudModerate2]

OK.
Was hoping for a +7 or +8, but if we account for further erosion to trump's numbers in the next week due to the tax and veteran PTSD issues/debacle, it looks promising.

[Gustaf]

She's probably up by more than 4% would be my guess but this is within MoE of where I suspect the race is.

[OwlRhetoric]

No way do third parties get over 10% combined in the final result. I think it could be important which way those voters break in the end. Or do they just become non-factors with half of them staying home?

[GeorgiaModerate]

No way do third parties get over 10% combined in the final result. I think it could be important which way those voters break in the end. Or do they just become non-factors with half of them staying home?

All of the above.  My (purely unscientific) guess is that those responding for Johnson will probably break about evenly between Clinton, Trump, staying with Johnson, or staying home.  The Stein respondents will likely have a lower percentage going to Trump.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd like to see her lead consistently by 5 or more, but can't be too picky I guess.