Poland General Discussion

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Millward Brown SA:

PiS: 41%
PO: 21,5%
Nowoczesna: 8,5%
SLD: 8,5%
Kukiz: 6,5%
------------------------
PSL: 4,3%
Razem: 4,3%
Wolność: 3,2%
Ruch Narodowy: 1,1%

Undecided: 5%
Not telling you: 3%


Fake news and junk poll I say. Facebook told me Razem will win next time around. Why would Zuckerberg like to me lie this?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Fake news and junk poll I say. Facebook told me Razem will win next time around. Why would Zuckerberg like to me lie this?

Man, where do you find these people who think Razem will win? I've never seen any of them, and I literally have a member of the national executive as one of my Facebook friends...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Btw will SLD run as a coalition (meaning they need to cross the higher threshold) or as a unified party next time around?

Also has Miller stepped down yet?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Btw will SLD run as a coalition (meaning they need to cross the higher threshold) or as a unified party next time around?

Also has Miller stepped down yet?

1. No idea. They could run with other parties, but not as a coalition, but an "voters' electoral committee", in which case all they would need is 5%. However, by not running as a party/coalition they won't be eligible for budget funds.

2. Back in 2016. This is the new SLD overlord, lacking en wiki page:

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Btw will SLD run as a coalition (meaning they need to cross the higher threshold) or as a unified party next time around?

Also has Miller stepped down yet?

They have enough trouble getting over 5% in most polls as it is, I doubt they'll be that stupid.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Btw will SLD run as a coalition (meaning they need to cross the higher threshold) or as a unified party next time around?

Also has Miller stepped down yet?

They have enough trouble getting over 5% in most polls as it is, I doubt they'll be that stupid.

If only ZL ran as a voters' committee instead of a coalition...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Btw will SLD run as a coalition (meaning they need to cross the higher threshold) or as a unified party next time around?

Also has Miller stepped down yet?

They have enough trouble getting over 5% in most polls as it is, I doubt they'll be that stupid.

If only ZL ran as a voters' committee instead of a coalition...

But then they wouldn't get that sweet sweet money, Kalwejt.

I wonder what the money Twój Ruch are getting is going towards.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The Senate has passed PiS' changes to the election code which gives the Minister of the Interior much more influence over the appointment of election officials, curtails postal voting and dramatically changes the definition of a spoiled ballot, Morawiecki has announced a 500mln zl investment programme into biotechnology to develop the Polish pharmaceutical industry (at least it's actual state investment this time and not just giving out massive corporate tax cuts and throwing money at foreign companies who were going to invest in Poland anyway), the Defence Ministry is buying three new ships (which we all know is going to end up taking forever and probably being an excuse for massive corruption), and Ziobro has asked the Constitutional Tribunal to rule on the constitutionality of an article of the penal code which bans discrimination by service providers (basically trying to sneak those stupid American 'religious objections' laws in through the back door).

Meanwhile, Ein Kredyt Ein Debet Ein Ryszard has given an interview to Rzeczpospolita in which he basically confirms that he's going to continue throwing a hissy fit over being removed as .N leader, criticises every decision Lubnauer has made since becoming leader, and announces that he has stopped soliciting donations to the party from his friends and will not resume until he is assured of an unspecified degree of influence over the direction of the party. Also, the chairman of Kielce .N shared a graphic on Facebook basically calling 500+ recipients alcoholics.

I'm beginning to think the weakness of the opposition might not just be down to the Polish people being dumb ungrateful proles who want free money, guys.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Btw will SLD run as a coalition (meaning they need to cross the higher threshold) or as a unified party next time around?

Also has Miller stepped down yet?

They have enough trouble getting over 5% in most polls as it is, I doubt they'll be that stupid.

If only ZL ran as a voters' committee instead of a coalition...

But then they wouldn't get that sweet sweet money, Kalwejt.

I wonder what the money Twój Ruch are getting is going towards.

Your post prompted me to google TR and I found, with surprise, they still exists.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Btw will SLD run as a coalition (meaning they need to cross the higher threshold) or as a unified party next time around?

Also has Miller stepped down yet?

They have enough trouble getting over 5% in most polls as it is, I doubt they'll be that stupid.

If only ZL ran as a voters' committee instead of a coalition...

But then they wouldn't get that sweet sweet money, Kalwejt.

I wonder what the money Twój Ruch are getting is going towards.

Your post prompted me to google TR and I found, with surprise, they still exists.

I've seen polls this year where they still got 1%!

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

There was a government reshuffle today and this is how it went: (WARNING: LOTS OF OPINIONS AHEAD)

- Antoni Macierewicz (Defence Minister) out and replaced with Mariusz Błaszczak (previously Interior). Macierewicz is a far-right lunatic who's probably the worst defence minister we've ever had so his replacement by a slightly less far-right stable person is a welcome development.
- Deputy Speaker of the Sejm and lead Kaczyński sycophant Joachim Brudziński moves to Interior. Sigh.
- Witold Waszczykowski (Foreign Affairs) out and replaced by Jacek Czaputowicz. Waszczykowski is a moron and Czaputowicz is an academic with a background in international relations, so this is also a welcome development.
- Jan Szyszko (Environment) out and replaced by Henryk Kowalczyk, previously minister without portfolio (interdepartmental fixer, basically). Szyszko is a hilariously corrupt moron and Kowalczyk is literally just a man so I'll take it.
- Konstanty Radziwiłł (Health) out and replaced by Łukasz Szumowski, cardiologist and former Deputy Minister of Science and Higher Education. Radziwiłł was a massively incompetent so-con and I don't have a clue about Szumowski.
- Finance and Development Ministries staffed with Teresa Czerwińska and Jerzy Kwieciński respectively. Boring technocratic Morawiecki loyalists about whom there isn't much to write.
- Ministry of Digitalisation gone as expected.
- Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing transformed into just the Ministry of Infrastructure despite rumours that the minister, Andrzej Adamczyk, might be sacked for the delays on PiS' flagship house-building programme.
- New Ministry of Business and Technology with Jadwiga Emilewicz, previous deputy minister of development and Gowin loyalist as the minister.

tl;dr PiS have ditched all their dead weights and are going after the liberal centre(-right) and PO are rubbish enough that they might actually pull it off. We're ed.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

RIP PSL parliamentary club.

[Lord Halifax]

RIP PSL parliamentary club.

What happened? Too many defections?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

RIP PSL parliamentary club.

What happened? Too many defections?

Actually, it just took one MP defecting (to the government; technically he joined Gowin's party, but it's the same club as PiS) for PSL to fell short of 15 MPs, required to have a parliamentary club. They are now "koło" (caucus).

I'm too lazy to check but is it the first time PSL, or preceding parties, are left without a proper club?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Crisis averted, PSL will now have joint parliamentary club with UED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_European_Democrats

In the long run it might be bad idea.

[Lord Halifax]

RIP PSL parliamentary club.

What happened? Too many defections?

Actually, it just took one MP defecting (to the government; technically he joined Gowin's party, but it's the same club as PiS) for PSL to fell short of 15 MPs, required to have a parliamentary club. They are now "koło" (caucus).

What is the difference between a club and a caucus?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

RIP PSL parliamentary club.

What happened? Too many defections?

Actually, it just took one MP defecting (to the government; technically he joined Gowin's party, but it's the same club as PiS) for PSL to fell short of 15 MPs, required to have a parliamentary club. They are now "koło" (caucus).

What is the difference between a club and a caucus?

Club is bigger (15 MPs) and thus can do more. Club have right to issue their own legislative projects. 15 MPs is also necessary to for example sign in their own candidate for the Sejm speaker (marshal) and other posts. There are also other major and minor issues but also prestige etc.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Crisis averted, PSL will now have joint parliamentary club with UED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_European_Democrats

In the long run it might be bad idea.

Michal 'Pinochet' Kaminski brings misfortune to every party he hooks up with. RIP PSL, you won't be missed.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

WARNING! BREAKING NEWS!!!


Janusz Korwin-Mikke is resigning from being MEP.

[Former President tack50]

WARNING! BREAKING NEWS!!!


Janusz Korwin-Mikke is resigning from being MEP.

Oh, too bad
For some reason he was always bullying a Spanish MEP. I guess those times have ended. Plus we'll miss other of his best interventions in the EU parliament.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I made a separate thread on the local elections, because why not: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=283164.msg6027298#msg6027298

WARNING! BREAKING NEWS!!!


Janusz Korwin-Mikke is resigning from being MEP.

Oh, too bad
For some reason he was always bullying a Spanish MEP. I guess those times have ended. Plus we'll miss other of his best interventions in the EU parliament.

[PSOL]

Progressive politician tests appetite for less religious Poland

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Well that sounds nice, his party sounds much better than PO and more electable than Razem. Can anyone give me the Polish scoop on the ground for this development?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Progressive politician tests appetite for less religious Poland

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well that sounds nice, his party sounds much better than PO and more electable than Razem. Can anyone give me the Polish scoop on the ground for this development?

At this point the best (or rather only real) chance to prevent an outright PiS victory again is Wiosna performing well, and KO not f**king up too much, the latter I'm not being optimistic about. PO had been attacking recently announced pension increases for teachers, nurses and soldiers, which is not going to work. PiS does have problems with recent scandals, but I fear come autumn they will rebound, if Wiosna collapses and KO keep shooting themselves in the foot. PiS is very good at playing economic issues and the other side just doesn't get the memo. The best course of action for Biedroń would be to somehow combine both socially liberal and economic messages.

As of Razem, they're basically dead, although they try to stay afloat by entering into a coalition with PPS and UP, which is pretty much irrelevant.

On a lol-related news, the Greens joined KO (causing many prominent members to leave), probably destined to end up as a fig leaf with no seats in the EP (hey, at least IP managed to secure a job for one of its leaders at Łódź aquapark. I'm not making this up.


Bottom line: too early to see, but given how things are going about here, I'm not optimistic.

[Lord Halifax]

Who is most likely to win the Euros. PiS or KE?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Who is most likely to win the Euros. PiS or KE?

Some polls are close, but personally I thinkd PiS will win the most votes, but it won't be by a big margin.

One of the last polls:

United Right (PiS and small satelite parties): 37,9%
KE (PO, .N, PSL, SLD and some other minor entities): 34,7%
Wiosna: 7,6%
Kukiz 15: 5.5%
Konfederacja (a bunch of far right nutjobs): 5.5%

-----5% Threshold-----

Left Together (Razem, Labor Union and PPS): 2,2%

I must say I really have no idea how to vote. Wiosna is essentially turning out the same way as Palikot. Razem was never a serious consideration for me for a number of reasons (which aren't about the policy, but their lack of ability to actually matter).