NJ-Stockton University: Clinton+6
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 21, 2024, 04:23:32 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NJ-Stockton University: Clinton+6
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: NJ-Stockton University: Clinton+6  (Read 2956 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 01, 2016, 11:05:43 AM »
« edited: October 01, 2016, 02:47:52 PM by Likely Voter »

46% Clinton
40% Trump
  9% Third Party
  1% Nobody
  1% Refused
  3% Undecided

The survey was conducted by the Stockton Polling Institute of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy (www.stockton.edu/hughescenter). Live interviewers on the Stockton University campus called both landlines and cell phones from Sept. 22-29, 2016. The poll was conducted with 638 adults who are likely voters in New Jersey. The poll's margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. MOE is higher for subsets. Data are weighted based on United States Census Bureau demographics for the New Jersey population.

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Polling/2016%20Polling/NJ16%20poll%201%20WFs%20(2)(1).pdf
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2016, 11:07:51 AM »

Tender, for the love of all that is holy stop putting political commentary into the header.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2016, 11:15:09 AM »

>University Poll
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,926


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2016, 11:15:45 AM »

Tender, for the love of all that is holy stop putting political commentary into the header.

Tender must be sweating LIKE A DOG as his candidate, Trump, collapses nationally.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,816
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2016, 11:19:17 AM »

I guess Trump and Republicans must start campaigning at New Jersey.
Do it folks!!!
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2016, 11:20:03 AM »

Tender, for the love of all that is holy stop putting political commentary into the header.

Tender must be sweating LIKE A DOG as his candidate, Trump, collapses nationally.

Ehh no, Trump is not my candidate. Once again, you are misstating things Lief.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,686
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2016, 11:20:23 AM »

NJ clearly not safe for Clinton. There are going to be some weird trends this year.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2016, 11:21:45 AM »

wow these cross tabs are not representative of NJ...blacks at only 10% of the electorate; men and women split at 50/50; democrats with an 8 point advantage in partisan ID...
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2016, 11:22:34 AM »

Junk. Hillary will win NJ by double digits, though probably by a bit less than Obama did in 2012.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2016, 11:34:36 AM »

A poll in October showing a close race in New Jersey for a Republican candidate that eventually loses by double-digits? That NEVER happens. And a university poll to boot..... Color me shocked.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,886
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2016, 11:56:54 AM »

NJ clearly not safe for Clinton. There are going to be some weird trends this year.



And before you say it, just because Stockton Obama/Romney had a better poll 2~ weeks into October doesn't mean anything. The point here is that Clinton is currently at a double-digit average on RCP, and while we don't have many polls for NJ besides that Emerson garbage, a poll showing her up by only 6 is not that surprising given how many polls Obama had showing him by a similar margin in 2012.

If we get numerous polls from different outfits over the next 3 weeks showing Clinton up by only single digits, then I'll worry.
Logged
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,738


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2016, 11:58:27 AM »

NJ has a very large blue collar population that is incredibly pro-Trump. I put his odds of actually winning the state at roughly between 1-5%, but this is one of the states likeliest to be drastically closer than expected.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,094
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2016, 12:00:44 PM »

who care
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2016, 12:12:30 PM »

Doesn't this happen every year
Logged
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,131
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2016, 12:51:47 PM »

Hillary is collapsing!  Looks like Donald's 3 AM tweet attack is working.  At this rate Maryland will be in single digits, but the media won't report it!  Sad they are protecting Hillary!  #BattlegroundNewJersey #TrumpPence16 #MAGA
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,463
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2016, 01:59:03 PM »

I could see racist eye-talians making it a bit closer than expected.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2016, 02:27:48 PM »

I could see racist eye-talians making it a bit closer than expected.

Where? Essex County (Nutley, Belleville, Bloomfield). Middlesex County (Fords, Jamesburg, Woodbridge)?
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,441
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2016, 02:49:24 PM »

A poll in October showing a close race in New Jersey for a Republican candidate that eventually loses by double-digits? That NEVER happens. And a university poll to boot..... Color me shocked.

Quoted for truth....

NJ will swing a bit Republican this year, with Trump gains with WWC non-college types, although he'll probably underperform a bit in Bergen County with angry Independent/Republican white women but yeah this poll seems a bit junk.

If it gets close, The Boss needs to start doing a statewide free concert tour to reassure, and I'll create a separate thread to link to the youtube vids of all his concerts. Wink

Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,415
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2016, 02:52:27 PM »

A poll in October showing a close race in New Jersey for a Republican candidate that eventually loses by double-digits? That NEVER happens. And a university poll to boot..... Color me shocked.

Quoted for truth....

NJ will swing a bit Republican this year, with Trump gains with WWC non-college types, although he'll probably underperform a bit in Bergen County with angry Independent/Republican white women but yeah this poll seems a bit junk.

If it gets close, The Boss needs to start doing a statewide free concert tour to reassure, and I'll create a separate thread to link to the youtube vids of all his concerts. Wink


Why did Bush do so well in NJ in 2004?
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,441
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2016, 03:19:40 PM »

A poll in October showing a close race in New Jersey for a Republican candidate that eventually loses by double-digits? That NEVER happens. And a university poll to boot..... Color me shocked.

Quoted for truth....

NJ will swing a bit Republican this year, with Trump gains with WWC non-college types, although he'll probably underperform a bit in Bergen County with angry Independent/Republican white women but yeah this poll seems a bit junk.

If it gets close, The Boss needs to start doing a statewide free concert tour to reassure, and I'll create a separate thread to link to the youtube vids of all his concerts. Wink


Why did Bush do so well in NJ in 2004?

9/11....  47.4% in Bergen County
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,415
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2016, 03:26:06 PM »

A poll in October showing a close race in New Jersey for a Republican candidate that eventually loses by double-digits? That NEVER happens. And a university poll to boot..... Color me shocked.

Quoted for truth....

NJ will swing a bit Republican this year, with Trump gains with WWC non-college types, although he'll probably underperform a bit in Bergen County with angry Independent/Republican white women but yeah this poll seems a bit junk.

If it gets close, The Boss needs to start doing a statewide free concert tour to reassure, and I'll create a separate thread to link to the youtube vids of all his concerts. Wink


Why did Bush do so well in NJ in 2004?

9/11....  47.4% in Bergen County
Just that?
Logged
mark_twain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 427
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2016, 03:45:26 PM »


I doubt the poll is accurate, as at least 2 other organizations conducted polls in mid-September with Clinton leading by +15 or higher.

Even if the poll is accurate, though, +6 is a solid lead for Clinton, especially this close to the election.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,449
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2016, 03:46:27 PM »

I guess Trump and Republicans must start campaigning at New Jersey.
Do it folks!!!

Please, please trump !
Please begin to waste .... I mean invest ..... money, time and resources in New Jersey.
It should be an easy win for your campaign.
LOL.
( 100% fools gold )
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,441
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2016, 03:55:17 PM »

A poll in October showing a close race in New Jersey for a Republican candidate that eventually loses by double-digits? That NEVER happens. And a university poll to boot..... Color me shocked.

Quoted for truth....

NJ will swing a bit Republican this year, with Trump gains with WWC non-college types, although he'll probably underperform a bit in Bergen County with angry Independent/Republican white women but yeah this poll seems a bit junk.

If it gets close, The Boss needs to start doing a statewide free concert tour to reassure, and I'll create a separate thread to link to the youtube vids of all his concerts. Wink


Why did Bush do so well in NJ in 2004?

9/11....  47.4% in Bergen County
Just that?

No... obviously a lot more than just that.

NJ has long been a Republican state in Presidential elections until recent election cycles. Moderate Republicans have historically done quite well in both statewide and national elections. (George Bush Sr won the State +13 in '88 with Bergen going +17 R).

Bill Clinton narrowly won NJ by only 2.5% in '92, despite losing Bergen County, but dramatically improved his performance in 1996 for a yuuge swing.

http://americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/new-jersey-likes-incumbents-learning-love-democrats

Additionally, Trump for whatever reason, has performed exceptionally well with Italian-American voters in the primaries. that represent almost 20% of the population of RI, CT, and NJ, as well as in heavily Italian-American neighborhoods and precincts within NY state.

9/11 did play a major factor no doubt, and in particular Bush won 51-48 among White Women and overall won the white vote 54-46, not to mention only losing Latinos 46-53 statewide, which most people don't realize has one of the highest raw numbers of Cuban Americans outside of Florida...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NJ/P/00/epolls.0.html

Needless to say, I have been predicting for awhile that Trump will overperform in places like RI and NJ contrary to statements that others have made on the forum....





Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2016, 06:04:30 PM »

I could see racist eye-talians making it a bit closer than expected.
Because that comment in and of itself wasn't racist or anything. Just sayin'

The quota of "close polls" has been met for the cycle. Emerson and this one.

That is, if you choose to discard the Google Consumer Survey polls, which have the race consistently within the MOE.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 13 queries.