MI - The Detroit News/WDIV-TV/Glengariff: Clinton +7
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  MI - The Detroit News/WDIV-TV/Glengariff: Clinton +7
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Author Topic: MI - The Detroit News/WDIV-TV/Glengariff: Clinton +7  (Read 2142 times)
heatcharger
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« on: September 29, 2016, 10:41:49 PM »
« edited: September 29, 2016, 10:43:31 PM by heatcharger »

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/29/clinton-leads-michigan-poll-trump/91304744/

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 35%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

Who won the debate:

Clinton - 52%
Trump - 20%

Poll was conducted from Sept. 27-28. 600 LV.

This pollster has a B rating on 538 with an R+0.1 house effect.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2016, 10:42:37 PM »

Safe D. No surprises here.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2016, 10:50:58 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2016, 11:22:48 PM by cinyc »

Clinton - 42% (+1 from poll ending August 1)
Trump - 35% (+3.4)
Johnson - 9% (+1.5)
Stein - 3% (-0.4)
Other Candidate 1% (+0)
Undecided/Refused 10% (-5.5)

I'm not sure why Glengariff loved decimals for their August poll but not this time.

Trump is supposedly up 20 in Macomb County but down 20 in neighboring Oakland County.  The MoE on those subsamples must be huge, but it sort of confirms the blue collar/white collar trends, I guess.  I doubt there will be that large a difference come election day, though.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2016, 11:04:52 PM »

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/29/clinton-leads-michigan-poll-trump/91304744/

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 35%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

Who won the debate:

Clinton - 52%
Trump - 20%

Poll was conducted from Sept. 27-28. 600 LV.

This pollster has a B rating on 538 with an R+0.1 house effect.

where is party id % in the poll?

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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2016, 11:41:05 PM »

In case anyone has forgotten: Michigan is Safe D.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2016, 04:36:11 PM »

This is a good indicator that Wisconsin is likely swinging back towards Clinton as well, after a few bad weeks of polling there for her.

Really interested in seeing a post-debate poll from WI and OH as well to see if things are swinging back in the industrial MidWest / Heartlands.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2016, 10:10:35 PM »

Here are the numbers from the City of Detroit:

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2016, 10:16:18 PM »

lol, Trump at 0%
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2016, 10:18:14 PM »

All those posts claiming Trump could get over 10% of the black vote are hilarious now.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2016, 11:25:08 PM »

Damn!!! If Trump isn't clearing even 5% of Black voters in Detroit, it's not not looking good in Macomb, let alone places like Flint and Lansing.....
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2016, 11:32:51 PM »

Damn!!! If Trump isn't clearing even 5% of Black voters in Detroit, it's not not looking good in Macomb, let alone places like Flint and Lansing.....

Trump is supposedly up 20 points in Macomb County, according to this poll - and supposedly down 20 in Oakland.  The swing between the two counties seems too high to be true.  Small sample size, high MoE.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2016, 12:02:41 AM »

Damn!!! If Trump isn't clearing even 5% of Black voters in Detroit, it's not not looking good in Macomb, let alone places like Flint and Lansing.....

Trump is supposedly up 20 points in Macomb County, according to this poll - and supposedly down 20 in Oakland.  The swing between the two counties seems too high to be true.  Small sample size, high MoE.

That'a always the drill and CW...

Macomb County Dems and Oakland County /indies and Reps..

Still, regardless of breakdowns it looks like overall Team Hillary is dominating in Metro Detroit, and performing very well in metro areas downstate, as well as rural counties elsewhere in Michigan.

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chrisras
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2016, 01:26:10 AM »

Not surprised Trump's African American outreach is falling on deaf ears.  It's really bad. His pitch is very insulting and he doesn't even realize it.

Hillary is going to be awful in rural areas.  Zero appeal
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Seriously?
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2016, 12:56:24 PM »

2-way numbers from WDIV (Clickondetroit.com)
Clinton 46.0%
Trump 39.1%
Other 3.5%
Undecided 9.3%
Refused 2.0%

http://www.clickondetroit.com/news/clinton-won-the-debate-leads-trump-by-7-in-michigan-wdivdetroit-news-poll-finds
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