India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

The result of this SP civil war is opportunity for INC and RLD and a disaster for BJP and BSP.  While an alliance between the old SP and INC would likely drive away Upper Caste voters away since  Mulayam Singh Yadav is seen as a Yadav Caste leader, an Akhilesh Yadav SP allied with INC and RLD will be able to target Upper caste votes.  A non-viable SP would mean that Muslim votes drift toward BSP while a viable SP would retain Muslim votes, especially with INC as an ally.  So an united SP allied with INC and RLD would be able to go after the BJP vote base as well as to hold on to the Muslim vote.  Of course there will still be anti-incumbency but if Akhilesh Yadav pulls off an alliance with INC and RLD then it will be a three way battle between BJP, BSP and SP-INC-RLD with BJP with a slight edge but it is totally possible that it will be a hung assembly.

[jaichind]

A look at the smaller UP parties from 2012 finds the following:

RLM - SP splinter founded by Amar Singh.  After 2012 Amar Singh merged RLM into RLD.  In 2016 Amar Singh left RLD to re-join SP.  Amar Singh is a known enemy of Akhilesh Yadav and his return to SP was part of the reason for the recent SP civil war.  With Akhilesh Yadav in complete control of SP Amar Singh might be expelled from SP and perhaps even reconstitute RLM.

AD - Allied with BJP for 2014.  Now has split into pro-BJP (AD(S)) and anti-BJP factions.  AD(S) will be part of BJP+.  Not clear what AD will do.

QED - BSP splinter that was allied with SBSP in 2012 but dominated by the Ansari mafia don family.  Merged into SP by Shivpal Singh Yadav over the objections of Akhilesh Yadav.  Now that Akhilesh Yadav is in complete control the Ansaris might get expelled from SP and QED reconstituted.

SBSP - BSP splinter that was alled with QED in 2012.  Has joined BJP+ for the 2017 assembly elections.

RLD - allied with INC+ in 2012 and 2014 but broke off the alliance after 2014.  Now allied with JD(U) who has no real base in UP.  Has been in talks with SP for a SP-RLD-JD(U) alliance.  Now that Akhilesh Yadav is in charge it is likely that RLD will join a SP-INC-RLD-JD(U) alliance.

JKP - BJP OBC rebel party led by perennial BJP rebel Kalyan Singh folded up JKP and merged it with with BJP in 2013 after Modi took charge of BJP.   Kalyan Singh whose main enemy in BJP are the Upper Caste BJP establishment always had a good relationship with fellow OBC Modi.  Kalyan Singh is now been appointed Governor of Rajasthan by Modi where he can stay out of trouble for BJP.

PECP - A Muslim based party that was allied with AD in 2012.  Will ally with MD this time around.

MD - A Western UP OBC based party that was allied with INC in 2014.  Will ally with PECP this time around.

IEMC - A Muslim based party.  Significant parts of the party has joined SP so most likely will have low impact this time around.

NCP - Not clear if NCP will join SP led grand alliance.

[jaichind]

Third twist within 48 hours of the SP drama.  In the SP Convention called by Ram Gopal Yadav in which the compromise of yesterday Mulayam Singh Yadav agreed to let go ahead for today has been taken over completely by Akhilesh Yadav partisans.  Just before the convention started Mulayam Singh Yadav took another U-turn and announced the convention illegal which did not stop the Akhilesh Yadav partisans from moving ahead. 

The convention then appointed Akhilesh Yadav the SP president and kicked Mulayam Singh Yadav upstairs with the title "Mentor."  It also expelled Akhilesh Yadav's enemy Amar Singh from SP as well as removing  Shivpal Singh Yadav as the head of the UP SP unit.  Akhilesh Yadav gave an emotional speech where he still claimed he was loyal to his father and will win the upcoming election under the mentorship of his father (of course doing so at the same time stabbing his father in the back.)  The Akhilesh Yadav partisans then rushed to the Lucknow SP UP headquarters, took it over, ousting the few Shivpal Singh Yadav partisans that remain there and removed Shivpal Singh Yadav nameplate from the office. 

With almost the entire SP infrastructure going over to Akhilesh Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav is reduced proclaiming the entire SP convention illegal, expelling Ram Gopal Yadav from SP for the second time in 48 hours, and sending a letter to ECI saying that the appointment of Akhilesh Yadav as President of SP is illegal.  The Akhilesh Yadav camp are sending similar letter to ECI to claiming control of SP.  It is now a battle of who has legal control of SP and the SP election symbol.  With few MP and MLA behind him, it is a battle that Mulayam Singh Yadav will lose.

This is a re-run of the 1659 Prince Aurangzeb coup against his father Emperor Shah Jahan and proclaiming himself emperor.  Shah Jahan was then kicked upstairs, declared incompetent, and but under house arrest.   I am pretty such once  Akhilesh Yadav is done with this coup he will also declare his father no longer of sound mind and competent.

I guess this coup has been a long time coming.  If you look at the various ads the Akhilesh Yadav camp has been coming out with in the last few months, like

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaZcnjneeVI

It is clear it is all about Akhilesh Yadav (and his pretty wife Dimple Yadav) with his father and SP head Mulayam Singh Yadav nowhere to be seen.

[jaichind]

One of the reasons the UP assembly election is important to BJP is that NDA does not have a majority in the Upper House or Rajya Sabha which means Modi could not push through major reforms without getting either UPA or other anti-NDA forces on board.  Winning assembly elections are a way to slowly build such a majority.  It is for such a reason that NDA's defeat in Delhi and Bihar in 2015 stung.  

Right now out of 245 seats NDA (BJP TDP SAD PDP BPF NPF RPI SDF) have 73 seats with 4 pro-NDA nominated members.  Also add in AIADMK with 13 and BDP with 8 as possible allies for NDA in the future adds up to 98 out of 245, far from a majority.  Over 2017 and 2018 this number can go up but only if BJP does well in 2017 assembly elections (UP Punjab Uttarakhand Goa HP and Gujarat).  

We can simulate the best and worst case scenarios for NDA in Rajya Sabha over 2017 to 2019.

                                             NDA                    pro-NDA          AIADMK       BJD          Greater
                                                                      nominated                                           NDA
end 2016                               73                          4                    13            8               98

                 Up for         Best        Worse  
              re-election     Case         Case

Goa               1             +1             0
Gujarat          3               0            -1
WB                5               0             0
end 2017                     74            72                   4                    13             8             99-97

Nomin           4                                                 +4
AP                 3             +1          +1
Bihar             6               0           -1
Chhattisgarh 1               0             0
Gujarat         4              -1           -2
Haryana        1             +1          +1
HP                 1              0            -1
Jharkhand     2             +1          +1
Karnataka     4             -1            -1
Kerala           3               0            0
MP                5              0             0
Marharastra  6             +2          +2
Delhi            3               0             0
Odisha          3              0              0                                                           +1
Rajasthan     3            +2           +2
Sikkim          1              0              0
Telangana     3              0              0
UP              10            +5           +2
Uttarakhand 1            +1             0
WB              4               0             0
end 2018                   85           76                      8                  13                 9          115-106

Assam         2            +2            +1
TN               6              0             0                                          -1
end 2019                   87           77                      8                 12                  9          116-106

It seems even if BJP does pretty well in the 2017 assembly elections, at the end of 2019 NDA plus possible allies will be at at most 116 out of 245 seats, still not a majority.   The way for NDA/Modi to have a free hand to do what it wants has to be to well in the 2017 assembly elections and those in 2018 as well, win re-election in 2019 for the Lok Shaba and sometime in 2020 or 2021 UPA will gain a majority in  Rajya Sabha.  Of course that will be just in time for anti-incumbency to settle in for  Modi since the would have been in power for 6-7 years already by then.

Most critical for BJP to even achieve a majority in 2020 in the  Rajya Sabha would for it to win a majority in UP assembly elections in 2017.  If they are held to 1/3 of the seats in UP then they better do well in the 2018 assembly elections (Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh) which would be difficult since they will be running against the weight of double incumbency in those states.  This is why UP assembly elections in 2017 for the BJP is do or die.

[jaichind]

Just to show the disparity between the Lok Shaba and  Rajya Sabha  for the BJP one just has to look at UP.  Out of the 80 UP Lok Shaba seats, NDA has 73 seats (71 BJP 2 AD) with SP holding 5 and INC having 2.  But because BJP did poorly in the 2007 and 2012 UP Assembly elections, BJP only has 3 out of 31  Rajya Sabha seats in UP with BSP 6, INC 3, and SP 19.  But if BJP does well in 2017 UP assembly elections then it can use those numbers to main gains in the 20 UP Rajya Sabha seats that are up for re-election in 2018 and 2020 with 10 each.  If BJP wins a majority then it can gain 5 Rajya Sabha UP seats each in 2018 and 2020 each.
 

[jaichind]

The SP civil war now reaches into ECI today.  Both Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav went to visit ECI today in New Delhi to claim the SP election symbol.  ECI could either 1) Give the symbol to Akhilesh Yadav faction 2) Give the symbol to Mulayam Singh Yadav faction or 3) Freeze the symbol and make both SP factions to run in 2017 with two separate symbols. 

In the meantime right after ousting his father as President of SP and installing himself Akhilesh Yadav tweeted out

"Sometimes to protect the ones you love you must make the right decision. What I did today was a tough decision but one that I had to take."

Which I guess is true.  Although it seems Akhilesh Yadav  seems to be in a pretty good mood yesterday at the SP convention as he made this "tough decision"


And certainly his partisans seems to be pretty excited about this "tough decision."

[FredLindq]

Is BJD back in alliance or supporting BJP and NDA again?
What about AIADAMK now when its leader J. died

[Shadows]

It is probably a good idea for BJP to not get Upper House majority since then it becomes insanely autocratic & does stupid things like demonetization!

[jaichind]

Is BJD back in alliance or supporting BJP and NDA again?
What about AIADAMK now when its leader J. died

BJD right now is not in NDA but is often seen a a party that can do business with BJP.  BJD's main motivation is its continued domination of Odisha(used to be Orissa.)  Right now in Odisha it is a 3 party system where BJD is dominant followed by INC and then BJP.  Given BJD still sees INC as its main enemy  it is more likely to align with BJP if pushed comes to shove.  Of course given the decline of INC in Odisha last couple of election cycles BJD decided that dumping BJP does not hurt and could enhance its domination of Odisha politics as it can then capture the Muslim and Leftist votes for itself.  If INC were the surge again in Odisha then BJD will go back to joining NDA.

For AIADMK the death of Jayalalithaa did give the BJP an opening to pull AIADMK into its orbit.  The BJP hope was that Panneerselvam, who has no mass base, stays on as CM and nominal head of AIADMK and the intra-factional conflicts within AIADMK would then pull AIADMK into NDA.  It seems that what took place was that all AIADMK factions, seeing the danger from BJP and its DMK rival it it does not pull together decided to coalesce around  Jayalalithaa's chief aide, Sasikala Natarajan, who has never given a political speech in her whole life, as leader of AIADMK.  

Sasikala Natarajan


There is also now pressure for Sasikala to become TN CM over the objections of Panneerselvam.  I made this comparison before, but this is like if Hillary Clinton was elected President, then died in office, and then the Democratic Party coalesces around Huma Abedin as leader of Democratic party and then pressure now President Tim Kaine to resign to make way for Huma Abedin to become President.  So powerful was  Jayalalithaa's hold on AIADMK that her chief aide would do as an successor since she has no blood relatives.  Anyway this development is for sure bad news for BJP as it is well known that Sasikala, who is a good behind-the-scenes operator for AIADMK, is pretty negative on BJP.  The fact that Sasikala might become a strong leader for AIADMK will also mean that AIADMK will not fall apart for now and the duopoly of AIADMK-DMK will continue giving BJP no space to grow in TN.

[jaichind]

It is probably a good idea for BJP to not get Upper House majority since then it becomes insanely autocratic & does stupid things like demonetization!

Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 

[Shadows]

It is probably a good idea for BJP to not get Upper House majority since then it becomes insanely autocratic & does stupid things like demonetization!

Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 

That is not true & you know it. Let's not not give a political spin. He ordered a disastrous demonetization on his own without consulting people something which was planned by a fundamental right wing think-tank for a decade who had pitched this to Modi for years.

Besides the opposition has been incredibly supportive - Insurance Bill, Coal Auction, GST etc - BJP used to be like the Republicans opposing everything.

He is incredibly authoritarian, makes cheap attacks @ people & doesn't want to work with people ( & to be honest there are few high quality right wing people). It is better for him to not have Super-majority (although the Upper house has no powers except constitutional amendment, Budgets are passed by lower house controlled by BJP) so that he can become a mini-dictator!

[jaichind]

The UP drama does not end.  Even after the Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav factions both went to ECI to claim the SP symbol,  Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav meet several times to work out a deal to re-unite SP.  The deal Akhilesh Yadav is offering is a 1) Mulayam Singh Yadav restored to position of Mentor-President but Akhilesh Yadav will control the candidate selection and alliance making and 2) Shivpal Singh Yadav moved out of UP politics moving giving him some sort of national role  like a Rajya Sabha seat.  It seems that Mulayam Singh Yadav insist on having control for candidate selection so there is still deadlock. 

The reason why  Akhilesh Yadav wants a deal but insist on candidate selection/alliance making is because one can game out the various election scenarios given different SP configurations since that is the wild card in this election.

1) Strong Old SP.  SP maintains Yadav and Muslims vote while BJP has Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes.  SP and BJP battle it out for lower OBC with BSP trying to scrap Muslims votes from SP and INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.    Result: Very narrow BJP win over SP with BJP far from majority

2) Mediocre Old SP.  SP still has most of the Yadav and Muslim votes but some Muslim vote drift to BSP while BJP has Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes.  SP and BJP battle it out for lower OBC with the BJP having an edge.  INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.   Result: BJP landslide  win with clear majority with both SP and BSP far behind.

3) Weak Old SP.  SP loses a majority of its Muslim base to BSP while  BJP has Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes.    SP and BJP battle it out for lower OBC with the BJP having an edge.   INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.  Losing its Muslim base means SP is not competitive and the election becomes a BJP vs BSP affair.  Some Yadav votes drift from SP to BJP to block BSP. Result: Significant BJP win with narrow majority over BSP with SP far behind.

4) New SP with old SP working against it without INC-RLD alliance.  New SP loses Muslim votes to both Old SP and BSP and loses Yadav votes to Old SP.  New SP is competitive with BJP for Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes but it is not enough to make up the loss of Muslim and Yadav votes.  BJP has the edge over new SP for lower OBC votes although some lower OBC votes goes to Old SP.  INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.  Result: Narrow BJP win over SP with BJP short of majority.

5) New SP with old SP working against it but with INC-RLD alliance.  New SP loses Yadav votes to Old SP but with INC-RLD alliance keeps the Muslim vote with INC alliance and gains Jats vote with RLD alliance.  New SP-INC competitive with BJP for  Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes and makes up for the loss of the Yadav vote to Old SP.  BJP has the edge over new SP for lower OBC votes although some lower OBC votes goes to Old SP.  Result: Neck-to-neck between BJP and New SP-INC-RLD

6) New SP with old SP support without INC-RLD alliance.  United SP consolidates Muslim and Yadav votes and is somewhat competitive with BJP for  Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes  but is more competitive relatively with BJP for lower OBC vote.  Result:  Neck-to-neck between BJP and united SP.

7) New SP with old SP support with INC-RLD alliance.  United SP-INC-RLD consolidates Muslims, Yadav, and Jat vote and is competitive with BJP for  Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes with New SP image and INC part of alliance.  BJP does do better with lower OBCs since the relative strength of Old SP is smaller with this setup but does not make up for the anti-BJP consolidation and losses in its Upper Caste and Higher OBC vote bank.  Result: Narrow victory for United SP-INC-RLD over BJP.

Until the Akhilesh Yadav  coup it looked like scenario #2 or #3 was likely to take place with #3 are more and more likely.   Ideally Akhilesh Yadav wants scenario #7 ergo he is proposing a deal where he still is free to form an alliance with INC-RLD and project a pro-development image but needs to avoid #4.  He needs either an alliance with INC-RLD OR a reunification of the SP under his leadership, ideally both.

[jaichind]

New UP ABP-CSDS Poll which took place right after the SP drama over the weekend.



SP         30%    146
BJP        27%    134
BSP       22%     98
INC        8%      16
Others   13%      9

This is without a SP-INC-RLD alliance.  It seems that  Akhilesh Yadav gambit has worked so far although part of it might be blowback on demonization.  



Only support on who should be CM it is

Akhilesh Yadav                28%
Mayawaiti                        21%
Mulayam Singh Yadav       3%

Here the lack of a CM candidate will hurt BJP if the election become a "Presidential" style election.  BJP needs to balance its Upper Caste and OBC factions ergo it could not project a CM candidate.



On Akhilesh Yadav  vs Modi


Akhilesh Yadav seems a bit more popular than even Modi 34-32



On support on who should lead SP


Akhilesh Yadav is way ahead.  Mulayam Singh Yadav should really read the writing on the wall.



On support by community



SP still retains most of Muslim and Yadav votes although some are going to BSP.    SP needs to win back those votes to have a chance to defeat BJP.  SP does seem to be making some inroads into Upper Caste votes.  Mayawati is a Jadav Dalit.  BSP has alway been the strongest among the Jadav Dailt which is the highest Dalit group.  The lower Dalits are for BSP but less strongly so.  



If SP splits into Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav factions who run separately then it is


BJP                                   163
BSP                                  115
SP(Akhilesh Yadav)             87
INC                                    17
SP(Mulayam Singh Yadav)  12

BJP winning but without a majority.  Although in such a case I think it will be SP(Akhilesh Yadav)-INC-RLD in an alliance.  I suspect that based on this poll in such a case it would be something like

SP(Akhilesh Yadav)-INC-RLD          160
BJP                                               145
BSP                                                85
SP(Mulayam Singh Yadav)               10

[jaichind]

There seems to be a battle within UP INC on whether to ally SP once the dust settles on the SP civil war.  Rahul Gandhi seems to be for an alliance given his good relationship with Akhilesh Yadav.  The local UP INC leadership seems much more negative.  This seems to be because the head of the UP INC committee Raj Babbar himself used to be a SP heavyweight before a falling out with the Yadav clan in 2006 when he  joined INC.  He even beat  Akhilesh Yadav's wife Dimple Yadav in a by-election in 2009.  It seems most of the INC MLAs are for the alliance.  Also the INC CM candidates for UP Sheila Diksh**t who is the former CM of New Delhi also just came out for an alliance with SP saying that Akhilesh Yadav is a better CM candidate than herself and she would be glad to step aside to make way for a SP-INC-RLD alliance.  I suspect Raj Babbar will not be able to block this alliance.

[jaichind]

Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 

That is not true & you know it. Let's not not give a political spin. He ordered a disastrous demonetization on his own without consulting people something which was planned by a fundamental right wing think-tank for a decade who had pitched this to Modi for years.

Besides the opposition has been incredibly supportive - Insurance Bill, Coal Auction, GST etc - BJP used to be like the Republicans opposing everything.

He is incredibly authoritarian, makes cheap attacks @ people & doesn't want to work with people ( & to be honest there are few high quality right wing people). It is better for him to not have Super-majority (although the Upper house has no powers except constitutional amendment, Budgets are passed by lower house controlled by BJP) so that he can become a mini-dictator!

Well, my statement was more under the assumption that the Modi regime has a real vision of neoliberal economic reform which I do not think he really has so the entire statement should be seen as counterfactual.  The Modi agenda has been blocked/delayed in the Rajya Sabha by non-NDA forces although Modi should take a major part of the blame with the way he tried to ram through his changes without negotiation.  Modi trying to topple various local INC  administrations makes it less likely that UPA will cooperate.  Anyway  demonization is really about projecting an image of action.  Modi promised revolutionary changes in 2014 and will be in trouble in 2019 if he is seen as not delivering.  Demonization, even if it is executed poorly, helps project the image of Modi as a man of action and I suspect that even if the economic effects are not positive, and it is not, at least on the short run, that the BJP will not be hurt much by it and in fact could gain. 

[jaichind]

ECI came out with election schedule

UP 7 phases
First phase: 73 constituencies, 15 districts go to polls on 11 February
Second phase: Polling date 15 February
Third phase: 69 constituencies go to polls on 19 February
Fourth phase: 53 constituencies to go to polls on 23 February
Fifth phase: 53 constituencies 27 February
Sixth Phase: 49 constituencies include 7 districts and they go to polls on 4 March
Seventh Phase: 40 constituencies to include 7 districts go to polls on 8 March

Goa 1 phase on 4 February

Punjab 1 phase on 4 February

Uttarakhand 1 phase on 15 February

Manipur 2 phases on 4 March and 8 March

Votes counted 11 March

[jaichind]

Latest Today-Axis Opinion Poll for UP shows a BJP lead with a narrow majority



It has

BJP      33%   206-216     211
SP       26%     92-97        94
BSP     26%     79-85        82
INC       6%       5-9           7
Others   9%      7-11          9

Caste/Community breakdown are


            Brahmin  Thakor    Yadav   Other OBC     Muslim
BJP         59           60         14         53                  4
BSP          9             9           6         15                 21
SP          14           14         67         13                 58
INC          9             6           2           7                   5
other        9           11         11         12                12

Brahmin and Thakor are large Upper Castes groups which make up 10% and 8% of UP population which together is pretty much all of the Upper Castes..  Yadavs are another 8%.  Muslims are around 20% of the population and other OBC around 30%. Somehow this poll did not publish exact Dalit numbers which are another 20% of the population other than to say that BSP wins majority of Dalit votes, which is expected.

The key to BJP's lead is that according to this poll the BJP is winning the battle over SP for the non-Yadav OBCs.  For SP to reverse this they have to either with this bloc of make inroads with Upper Castes.  Most likely both.

As far as who is best for CM it has



It is

Akhilesh Yadav            33
Mayawati                    25
BJP's Rajnath Singh     20   (he is from the Moderate wing of the BJP)
BJK's Yogi Adityanath   18   (he is from the Hindutva wing of BJP)

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis survey on Punjab has INC ahead of AAP and on the edge of majority with SAD+ far behind

INC      35%   56-62  59
AAP      29%   36-41  38
SAD+   24%   18-22  20

But ABP-CSDS survey on Punjab finds it is INC and SAD-BJP neck-to-neck




SAD+    34%  50-58  54
INC       31%   41-49  45
AAP       21%  12-18  16


One way or another AAP has lost a lot of ground from last year when polls show AAP way out in front and winning almost 100 out of 117 seats.

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis survey on  Uttarakhand has BJP ahead  of INC.


BJP      45%   41-46   44
INC     33%   19-23   21
Others 22%    2-6       5

Note that INC might end up forming an alliance with PDF (which includes BSP, UKD and 3 pro-INC independents.)  If so that might change some of the equations of the elections in INC's favor.

[Shadows]

Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 

That is not true & you know it. Let's not not give a political spin. He ordered a disastrous demonetization on his own without consulting people something which was planned by a fundamental right wing think-tank for a decade who had pitched this to Modi for years.

Besides the opposition has been incredibly supportive - Insurance Bill, Coal Auction, GST etc - BJP used to be like the Republicans opposing everything.

He is incredibly authoritarian, makes cheap attacks @ people & doesn't want to work with people ( & to be honest there are few high quality right wing people). It is better for him to not have Super-majority (although the Upper house has no powers except constitutional amendment, Budgets are passed by lower house controlled by BJP) so that he can become a mini-dictator!

Well, my statement was more under the assumption that the Modi regime has a real vision of neoliberal economic reform which I do not think he really has so the entire statement should be seen as counterfactual.  The Modi agenda has been blocked/delayed in the Rajya Sabha by non-NDA forces although Modi should take a major part of the blame with the way he tried to ram through his changes without negotiation.  Modi trying to topple various local INC  administrations makes it less likely that UPA will cooperate.  Anyway  demonization is really about projecting an image of action.  Modi promised revolutionary changes in 2014 and will be in trouble in 2019 if he is seen as not delivering.  Demonization, even if it is executed poorly, helps project the image of Modi as a man of action and I suspect that even if the economic effects are not positive, and it is not, at least on the short run, that the BJP will not be hurt much by it and in fact could gain. 

Again the Upper house can't do anything because Modi controls both Lower House & PM office. And Upper house has no jurisdiction over budget & financial matters. Upper House has almost no power except in constitutional amendment which is VERY VERY rare.

Demonetization is a disaster, you can't do anything for the sake of it - People were rationed money - Most small business came to a close, daily workers went hungry, people died & almost the entire money came back into the system from what I heard proving it a failure.

Based on the exit poll, I think the current government could sail through if they solve the feud & form an alliance with INC as the extra Voting % will give decisive victories in many marginal seats. Also, there's a huge fall in votes of the BJP as per your data from national polls.

[jaichind]

Indians Said to Deposit 97% of Notes Banned to Curb Graft

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indians-deposit-97-of-notes-banned-to-curb-graft-reports/articleshow/56336107.cms

If this is true then this entire demonetisation would have been a huge fiasco.   The whole point was that a good chunk of the 500 and 1000 notes were black money which would have to be destroyed since they cannot be deposited without getting the tax authorities involved.  Now it seems 97% of all such bills have been deposited by the 12/30 deadline.  Of course it could be that the tax authorities still has to review the deposits and then go after the black money.  But unless there is a large chunk of them this entire exercise was for nothing.  Of course a lot of these deposits are fraudulent in the sense that they might be deposited by non-black money people who are depositing them for a fee.  If so all this did was a transfer of wealth from one section of the economy (those involved in large black economic sector to a large number of regular joes that are being paid to deposit the money.)

Again, even if this is true I think the impact the BJP would be limited although clearly negative.  Modi/BJP still own the image/message of "we are trying to do something, anything to try to change the system."

[OSR stands with Israel]

i know i am not nearly interested enough in indian politics between elections but seeing the lvel of decline of the INC is just breathtaking.

Yes, the fall for INC from 2009-now is quite large and mostly to the benefit of the BJP.  But we should not overstate it.  INC and BJP always overperform in LS elections while BSP and SP always overperform in Assembly elections.   This makes sense since INC and BJP are national parties while BSP and SP are UP regional parties (in de facto terms.) So when INC+ gets 19% in the 2009 LS election it was always not realistic to expect it to win 19% in an  UP assembly election.  In 2002 and 2007 INC only got around 9% in UP Assembly elections.  Now it is polling around 6%-8% which is bad but not that terrible relative to 2002 and 2007.  Remember in 1998 LS election during the INC nadir it only won ~6% of the vote.  Taken in that context INC is weaker than it ever was since 1999 but is still a bit better than 1998.

But the macro story is that since 2013 BJP has taken over as the natural party of governance in India and natural party to maintain national unity from INC.  INC has to either reverse this or  become a large regional party in several states with alliance with other regional forces to counter BJP, a role BJP played in the 1990s against INC.

why do the BJP and INC not do so well in state wide elections as national election but the tories and labour in uk tend to do well in both(except Scotland of course)

[jaichind]

why do the BJP and INC not do so well in state wide elections as national election but the tories and labour in uk tend to do well in both(except Scotland of course)

Because there are at lot of regional parties in India so when the Indian voter votes for Lok Shaba elections they are thinking about which party to vote for to get a stable majority or at least a stable ruling bloc.  That really means INC or BJP for a lot of people.  For regional elections the focus is a lot lower since voting for a regional party can lead to a stable ruling bloc at the local level.

BTW, I would argue that in Uk the same thing takes place.  If you look at UK council elections there are a lot of independents and various Residents' Association getting elected as councillors even while very little independents or such  Residents' Association  gets elected for MP.

[jaichind]

Anonymous INC sources in UP indicates that a SP Akhilesh Yadav faction - INC talks has resulted in a basic framework for an SP-INC alliance.  It will be INC getting around 100 seats and (RLD, JD(U), AD Krishna Patel faction) will get around 30 seats with around 275 going to SP.  Akhilesh Yadav will be projected as the CM candidate for this alliance and there will be joint campaign for this alliance.  If so it will be a SP-INC-RLD-AD(Krishna Patel)-JD(U) alliance which should lock up the Muslim votes, might lose some Yadav votes depending on how strong SP Mulayam Singh Yadav faction is and quiet competitive with Upper Caste and higher OBC votes.   

[FredLindq]

Interesting split in the UP SP. But what will happen with SP elsewhere? And what happened with the merger off SP, JD (U), JD (S), RJD, BJD, INLD etc.