WA/NE-Emerson (pre-debate): Clinton +6 in WA, Trump +27 in NE
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  WA/NE-Emerson (pre-debate): Clinton +6 in WA, Trump +27 in NE
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Author Topic: WA/NE-Emerson (pre-debate): Clinton +6 in WA, Trump +27 in NE  (Read 3133 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 28, 2016, 04:29:27 PM »

Washington
44% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)
6% Johnson (L)
5% Stein (G)

Nebraska
56% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
7% Johnson (L)
1% Stein (G)

Trump leads 49% to 40% in NE-02.

Link.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2016, 04:31:35 PM »

Junkity junkity junk junk junk.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2016, 04:32:46 PM »

LOL Emerson. Of course, dopey Nate Silver will add these to his model and give them a big weighting because there haven't been many WA and NE polls.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2016, 04:34:26 PM »

both bad for Hillary
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2016, 04:36:23 PM »

What utterly bizarre states to pair together in a poll.

Emerson belongs in a garbage can, not a poll average.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2016, 04:37:41 PM »

Oh nice, NE-02 is going to be really close (other polls have shown that Clinton does 10-15 points better with cell phone samples).
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2016, 04:38:25 PM »

As cool as #BattlegroundWashington would be, I don't trust that number. Nebraska seems about right though.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2016, 04:40:23 PM »

What utterly bizarre states to pair together in a poll.

Emerson belongs in a garbage can, not a poll average.

Emerson is best consumed in a 12 ounce can of generic crap lukewarm beer that is quickly guzzled down with frequent attempts to swallow, while the brain and body are basically rejecting the entire contents of the can.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2016, 04:44:14 PM »

Conducted before the debate, so throw it out. WA still Safe D.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2016, 04:46:32 PM »

What utterly bizarre states to pair together in a poll.

Emerson belongs in a garbage can, not a poll average.

Emerson is best consumed in a 12 ounce can of generic crap lukewarm beer that is quickly guzzled down with frequent attempts to swallow, while the brain and body are basically rejecting the entire contents of the can.

Hahaha!

So Keystone Ice, basically?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2016, 04:47:44 PM »


If it weren't Emerson, I'd agree
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2016, 04:49:29 PM »

Rhode Island, Washington, Arkansas, and Texas aren't ripe for picking.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2016, 04:49:43 PM »

I would imagine that certain states, Washington top of the list, would be particularly bad for landline only polls. The more "young, techy, and urban" the state, the less representative landlines would be.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2016, 04:57:23 PM »

More like Clinton +27 in WA and Trump +6 in NE!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2016, 04:59:56 PM »

More like Clinton +27 in WA and Trump +6 in NE!

Split the difference and I think you'd be close (+16.5) in both!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2016, 05:01:37 PM »

I would imagine that certain states, Washington top of the list, would be particularly bad for landline only polls. The more "young, techy, and urban" the state, the less representative landlines would be.

This too
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2016, 05:01:47 PM »

I would imagine that certain states, Washington top of the list, would be particularly bad for landline only polls. The more "young, techy, and urban" the state, the less representative landlines would be.

I would also imagine that in "Safe D" places like Washington state, there will be greater defection to 3rd party candidates, that come more heavily from the Obama coalition than the Romney coalition.

I still find it hard to believe that Stein will outperform Nader's 2000 4.1% vote share in Washington State.

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darthebearnc
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« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2016, 05:02:51 PM »

More like Clinton +27 in WA and Trump +6 in NE!

Split the difference and I think you'd be close (+16.5) in both!

This.
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Alcon
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2016, 05:15:07 PM »

The Washington Senate result is 48-41 Murary.  The primary was about 59-36, so...no.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2016, 05:31:25 PM »


That would be more believable. Not to get into professional unskewing, but if we apply the same shift to NE-02, then it would be Clinton+1.5
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2016, 05:44:49 PM »

I am increasingly convinced Emerson is just fabricating their numbers.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2016, 06:49:16 PM »

The realignment



Washington decides whether it's a Trump win or a hung EC.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2016, 07:24:36 PM »

The realignment



Washington decides whether it's a Trump win or a hung EC.

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cinyc
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2016, 07:35:24 PM »

I am increasingly convinced Emerson is just fabricating their numbers.

Doubtful.  If Emerson were fabricating their numbers, they'd be herding their polls with other pollsters and conventional wisdom, instead of producing what seem to be outliers.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2016, 07:47:32 PM »

I am increasingly convinced Emerson is just fabricating their numbers.

Doubtful.  If Emerson were fabricating their numbers, they'd be herding their polls with other pollsters and conventional wisdom, instead of producing what seem to be outliers.

I agree.  The problem with Emerson is that they're landline only, which no longer provides a realistic sample of the electorate.
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