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  Talk Elections
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  IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
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Author Topic: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)  (Read 2158 times)
Seriously?
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« on: September 26, 2016, 01:59:58 pm »
« edited: September 26, 2016, 02:07:40 pm by Seriously? »

Iowa: Loras College 2-way (change from June) TIE
Clinton 42.3% (-6)
Trump 42.0% (+8)
Other 6.1% (+2)
Unsure 7.7% (-3)
Refused 1.5% (-1)

491 LV; September 20-22, 2016; MOE +/- 4.4%

Iowa: Loras College 4-way (change from June) TIE
Trump 38.3% (+7)
Clinton 37.7% (-7)
Johnson 9.0% (+3)
Stein 1.2% (-1)
Unsure 13.0% (-2)
Refused 0.8% (-1)

491 LV; September 20-22, 2016; MOE +/- 4.4%
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JJC
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2016, 02:03:32 pm »

The reason I don't buy this has nothing to do with the numbers and everything to do with the Clinton Campaign virtually pulling out of Iowa.

If the state was in play, they would still be fighting for it.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2016, 02:03:56 pm »

LOLras = Junk.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2016, 02:04:36 pm »

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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2016, 02:05:00 pm »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2016, 02:05:24 pm »

Clinton has surged in Iowa!!!!!!!!!! Tongue
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2016, 03:03:27 pm »

The reason I don't buy this has nothing to do with the numbers and everything to do with the Clinton Campaign virtually pulling out of Iowa.

If the state was in play, they would still be fighting for it.

Where's the evidence that they're not?

According to http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending, the Clinton campaign spent more during the week of 9/11-9/17 ($841K) then they have in any week since she clinched the nomination.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2016, 03:27:24 pm »

The reason I don't buy this has nothing to do with the numbers and everything to do with the Clinton Campaign virtually pulling out of Iowa.

If the state was in play, they would still be fighting for it.

Where's the evidence that they're not?

According to http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending, the Clinton campaign spent more during the week of 9/11-9/17 ($841K) then they have in any week since she clinched the nomination.

Yeah, she actually is going to an event in Des Monies later this week after the debate.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2016, 03:41:00 pm »

New Poll: Iowa President by Loras College on 2016-09-22

Summary: D: 38%, R: 38%, I: 10%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Kempros
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2016, 06:59:11 pm »

I trust in 538 more as the distrust in the accuracy of the polls increase.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2016, 07:00:12 pm »

I trust in 538 more as the distrust in the accuracy of the polls increase.
That's not how 538 works though. Their projection is mostly based on polling. If the polls are bad, the 538 projection is going to be bad.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2016, 07:01:27 pm »

Ugh, first half-decent IA poll for Hillary in ages and it's Loras... sigh, next.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2016, 10:26:10 pm »

Remember their caucus polling? lol.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2016, 11:56:55 pm »

Not until I see another poll corroborate this result will I accept that Donald Trump isn't winning Iowa. The debate performance might do that, though.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2016, 10:49:44 am »

So... was it really necessary to add this (and the UT and MN-Gravis poll) to the database?

We already had the last Loras poll in there... so yes.
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cinyc
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2016, 02:00:54 pm »

So... was it really necessary to add this (and the UT and MN-Gravis poll) to the database?

Every non-internal poll should be added to the database, even the alleged outliers.  Some polls are only outliers until they aren't, anyway.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2016, 11:34:11 am »

Or you can do as I do -- restart the polling thread after an event that seems to change the narrative.
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