What is the safest Liberal riding in Canada?

[King of Kensington]

I'll say St. Paul's.  Other major contenders include Westmount, St. Laurent-Cartierville, Ottawa South and Vanier and Vancouver Quadra. 

And pretty much anything in PEI and rural Newfoundland. 

[King of Kensington]

I disagree.  I think the Conservatives pretty much hit their ceiling there in 2011 - it's pretty much the epicenter of the "too educated to vote Tory too bourgeois to vote NDP" demographic. 

Maybe #1 outside Atlantic Canada is more accurate though.

[King of Kensington]

Some other Toronto ridings would be York West and Etobicoke North.  I'm not sure why the 2011 orange wave (from a York South-Weston beachhead) wasn't as big as in Scarborough. 

Incidentally what became known as "Bloc Scarberia" in the 90s broke down in 2011 but ironically it seems to me that Agincourt - where the "orange wave" didn't hit and the Liberals won by their biggest margin - is the most likely to fall of the Scarborough ridings today (to the Conservatives).

[King of Kensington]

I wonder what the safest riding for each of the three major parties? And of course the safest riding for the PQ?

The Conservatives: pretty much everything that they currently hold in the rural Prairies (as long as there's a united small-"c" conservative party).  As they basically "own" the 30% of the vote on the right, there are more safe Conservative seats than for any other party.

The NDP:  A total wipeout isn't impossible.  I'd say the safest include Hamilton Centre, Windsor West, Timmins-James Bay and Skeena. 

[King of Kensington]

You're forgetting Vancouver East, which is safer than any of those ridings. It did go Liberal in 1993 though.

Yeah, I don't think any of the 9 ridings won by the NDP in 1993 are held by them now, except for equivalent areas in Regina and Saskatoon (though the boundaries today are rather different).

[King of Kensington]

Here's an attempt to list every riding held by the Liberals since 1993:

Long Range Mountains NF (formerly Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte)
Cardigan PEI
Charlottetown PEI
Malpeque PEI
Lac Saint Louis QC
Mount Royal QC
NDG-Westmount QC (formerly Westmount-Ville Marie)
Saint Laurent QC
Saint Leonard-St. Michel QC
Etobicoke North ON
Guelph ON
Humber River-Black Creek ON (formerly York West)
Kingston and the Islands ON
Ottawa South ON
Ottawa-Vanier ON
St. Paul's ON
Scarborough-Agincourt ON
Scarborough-Guildwood ON (formerly Scarborough East)
Toronto Centre ON (with and without Rosedale)
Wascana SK
Vancouver Centre BC
Vancouver Quadra BC

1993 seems to be a fair starting point as it was the end of the old PCs as a major political force - and the year the "too educated to vote Tory too rich to vote NDP" phenomenon really came into play.  It also helps filter out some 2011 incumbency survivors.  The only seat that's more of a personal seat than a Liberal seat to me is Wascana held by Ralph Goodale.

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa-Vanier (formerly Ottawa East) has been held by the Liberals since 1935.  Mount Royal since 1940.

[King of Kensington]

My favorite 1993 fluke was the Liberal victory in Souris-Moose Mountain!

[King of Kensington]

That's for sure!  

Lowest Liberal vote, 2015:

Battle River-Crowfoot AB  9.37%
Victoria BC  11.81%
Peace River-Westlock AB  12.84%
Foothills AB  13.36%
Red Deer-Mountain View AB  13.43%
Souris-Moose Mountain SK  13.53%
Bow River AB  13.68%
Lakeland AB  13.69%
Yellowhead AB  14.22%
Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek SK  14.37%
Grande Prairie-Mackenzie AB  14.66%
Cypress Hills-Grasslands SK  14.86%

Not surprisingly, it lines up closely with the top Conservative ridings.

Highest Conservative vote, 2015:

Battle River-Crowfoot AB  80.91%
Bow River AB  77.42%
Foothills AB  75.7%
Red Deer-Mountain View AB  74.33%
Grande Prairie-Mackenzie AB  72.91%
Lakeland AB  72.81%
Yellowhead AB  72.25%
Red Deer-Lacombe AB  70.71%
Sturgeon River-Parkland AB   70.23%
Souris-Moose Mountain SK  70.14%
Peace River-Westlock AB  69.35%
Cypress Hills-Grasslands SK  69.19%

ETA:  Added Victoria, which is the real outlier.  All the rest are Conservative strongholds in AB/SK.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals in the Prairies in 1993 is a good example of this. So is the Tories in parts of Quebec in 2006. What would be the equivalent example for the 2015 Liberals?

It's kind of tough to tell, since we don't know whether an unusual result is part of a realignment/demographic trend or just a fluke. I'd guess the nationalist parts of Quebec or rural BC.

Kelowna?  Or has it reached "big city" status?