What is the safest Liberal riding in Canada?
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  What is the safest Liberal riding in Canada?
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Author Topic: What is the safest Liberal riding in Canada?  (Read 2223 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 24, 2016, 11:14:54 PM »

I'll say St. Paul's.  Other major contenders include Westmount, St. Laurent-Cartierville, Ottawa South and Vanier and Vancouver Quadra. 

And pretty much anything in PEI and rural Newfoundland. 
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Zioneer
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2016, 11:28:42 PM »

I wonder what the safest riding for each of the three major parties? And of course the safest riding for the PQ?
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2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2016, 11:37:00 PM »

Depending how electoral reform goes, we may have to dispense of the whole notion of safe seats in Canada. But even then, I wouldn't say St. Paul's. It narrowly avoided going Conservative in 2011 because Carolyn Bennett's personal popularity is so high. But to answer the OP's question, probably somewhere in western Newfoundland.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 12:04:09 AM »

I disagree.  I think the Conservatives pretty much hit their ceiling there in 2011 - it's pretty much the epicenter of the "too educated to vote Tory too bourgeois to vote NDP" demographic. 

Maybe #1 outside Atlantic Canada is more accurate though.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 01:34:28 AM »

Some other Toronto ridings would be York West and Etobicoke North.  I'm not sure why the 2011 orange wave (from a York South-Weston beachhead) wasn't as big as in Scarborough. 

Incidentally what became known as "Bloc Scarberia" in the 90s broke down in 2011 but ironically it seems to me that Agincourt - where the "orange wave" didn't hit and the Liberals won by their biggest margin - is the most likely to fall of the Scarborough ridings today (to the Conservatives).
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2016, 08:09:32 AM »

The trick in deciding what is safe IMO, is to look at what a party would hold onto if they lost in a massive landslide. i.e. Their opponent getting ~50% of the vote. If we take the expected seats and then add a margin of safety to account for popular incumbents, we get a rough idea of the 'true safe seats'. Since the Tories haven't won that big since 1984 we have to do some guess work.

Let's suppose the Tories got 50% of the vote in 2011. The Liberal share of the vote was already pretty low, so most of that gain would have to come from the NDP, with the remainder mainly coming from the Liberals with a little bit of the Bloc and Green thrown in.

In my scenario here are the Liberals 2011 seats that would be retained:
1) Winnipeg North, MB
2) Guelph, ON
3) York West, ON
4) Toronto Centre, ON
5) Ottawa Vanier, ON
6) St. Laurent-Cartierville, QC
5) Westmount-Ville Marie, QC
6) Saint Leonard-Saint Michel, QC
7) Bourassa, QC
Cool Cardigan, PEI
9) Cape Breton-Canso, NS
10-12) The three western Newfoundland ridings.

If we take out some of the incumbent based ones like Winnipeg North, that gives us about 10 seats to choose from. I'd say any of the francophone, federalist Montreal ridings or rural Newfoundland ones fit the bill.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2016, 08:17:27 AM »

I disagree with Kensington' pick because St. Paul's doesn't have the tribal element I'd want from a safe seat. Obviously it's still a very Liberal friendly riding, but if we're choosing the safest seat, I'd want a place where the typical voter has deep seated reasons to hold onto the party. That would limit elasticity in a wave year.

Put another way, Maxime Bernier won ~60% of the vote in Beauce last year, but I'd call a rural prairie seat with a similar Tory vote share safer.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2016, 08:27:41 AM »

No seat is truly safe in Canadian politics.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2016, 10:05:33 AM »

For fun, we can take a look at the Liberal's best ridings per election:

2015: Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, NL (82%) [Winner: Judy Foote]
Liberal since: 2000
What would it take for the Liberals to lose? Screw over Newfoundland and have a moderate Tory leader.

2011: Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, NL (58%) [Winner: Scott Simms]
Liberal since: 1974
Current riding: Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
What would it take for the Liberals to lose? Screw over Newfoundland and have a moderate Tory leader.

2008: Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, NL (70%) [Winner: Scott Simms]
(see 2011)

2006: Scarborough-Rouge River, ON (66%) [Winner: Derek Lee]
Liberal since: 2015
Current riding: Scarborough North
What would it take for the Liberals to lose? Well, they lost it in 2011 due to a popular Tamil candidate, and they just lost it provincially due to socially conservative wedge issues. Definitely not safe anymore!

2004: Mount Royal, QC (76%) [Winner: Irwin Cotler]
Liberal since: 1940
What would it take for the Liberals to lose? Tories came close to winning it in 2011. So, a popular Jewish candidate could win it with a very unpopular Liberal Party.

2000: Mount Royal, QC (81%) [Winner: Irwin Cotler]
(see 2004)

1997: Scarborough-Rouge River, ON (75%) [Winner: Derek Lee]
(see 2006)

1993: Mount Royal, QC (83%) [Winner: Sheila Finestone]
(see 2004)

1988: Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, ON (81%) [Winner: Don Boudria]
Liberal since: 2015
What would it take for the Liberals to lose? Well, it's a swing riding now, so not much.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2016, 11:51:22 AM »

I wonder what the safest riding for each of the three major parties? And of course the safest riding for the PQ?

The Conservatives: pretty much everything that they currently hold in the rural Prairies (as long as there's a united small-"c" conservative party).  As they basically "own" the 30% of the vote on the right, there are more safe Conservative seats than for any other party.

The NDP:  A total wipeout isn't impossible.  I'd say the safest include Hamilton Centre, Windsor West, Timmins-James Bay and Skeena. 
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2016, 04:13:04 PM »

You're forgetting Vancouver East, which is safer than any of those ridings. It did go Liberal in 1993 though.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2016, 06:41:52 PM »

You're forgetting Vancouver East, which is safer than any of those ridings. It did go Liberal in 1993 though.

Yeah, I don't think any of the 9 ridings won by the NDP in 1993 are held by them now, except for equivalent areas in Regina and Saskatoon (though the boundaries today are rather different).
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2016, 06:53:56 PM »

Here's an attempt to list every riding held by the Liberals since 1993:

Long Range Mountains NF (formerly Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte)
Cardigan PEI
Charlottetown PEI
Malpeque PEI
Lac Saint Louis QC
Mount Royal QC
NDG-Westmount QC (formerly Westmount-Ville Marie)
Saint Laurent QC
Saint Leonard-St. Michel QC
Etobicoke North ON
Guelph ON
Humber River-Black Creek ON (formerly York West)
Kingston and the Islands ON
Ottawa South ON
Ottawa-Vanier ON
St. Paul's ON
Scarborough-Agincourt ON
Scarborough-Guildwood ON (formerly Scarborough East)
Toronto Centre ON (with and without Rosedale)
Wascana SK
Vancouver Centre BC
Vancouver Quadra BC

1993 seems to be a fair starting point as it was the end of the old PCs as a major political force - and the year the "too educated to vote Tory too rich to vote NDP" phenomenon really came into play.  It also helps filter out some 2011 incumbency survivors.  The only seat that's more of a personal seat than a Liberal seat to me is Wascana held by Ralph Goodale.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2016, 10:13:36 PM »

You're forgetting Vancouver East, which is safer than any of those ridings. It did go Liberal in 1993 though.

Yeah, I don't think any of the 9 ridings won by the NDP in 1993 are held by them now, except for equivalent areas in Regina and Saskatoon (though the boundaries today are rather different).

The mid-section of Burnaby also went NDP in both 1993 and 2015.  In fact, the area around Burnaby Lake Regional Park has gone NDP since 1972. I'm fairly certain that's the longest any part of the country has voted NDP.
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Blue3
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2016, 10:19:25 PM »

Excuse my American ignorance, but what is a "riding"?

And is the Liberal Party or NDP considered more progressive nowadays?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2016, 06:09:50 AM »

Excuse my American ignorance, but what is a "riding"?

And is the Liberal Party or NDP considered more progressive nowadays?

A riding is a congressional district. And the NDP is and always has been more left wing.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2016, 10:39:00 AM »

Ottawa-Vanier (formerly Ottawa East) has been held by the Liberals since 1935.  Mount Royal since 1940.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2016, 11:27:41 AM »

Ottawa-Vanier (formerly Ottawa East) has been held by the Liberals since 1935.  Mount Royal since 1940.

I guess this is the longest streak?

I wonder how many streaks were broken in 2011? I know Hull-Aymer had voted Liberal continuously from 1891 before the NDP won it in 2011.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2016, 11:29:17 AM »

Excuse my American ignorance, but what is a "riding"?

A third of Yorkshire or a one three hundred and thirty eighth of Canada.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2016, 04:41:55 PM »

For the Tories, it really depends on whether you count the Socreds as a predecessor of the modern Tories like you would Reform.

If the Socreds don't count, then the oldest Tory area is the Souris part of Brandon-Souris in Manatoba. It's been Tory since 1940.

If the Socreds do count, then the oldest Tory area is Lethbridge, Alberta stretching back to 1930.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2016, 05:01:00 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2016, 05:02:50 PM by 🍁 Hatman »

Brandon-Souris went Liberal in 1993.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2016, 05:08:30 PM »


Damn you're right. It would be parts of Calgary I think then.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: September 27, 2016, 07:24:44 PM »

My favorite 1993 fluke was the Liberal victory in Souris-Moose Mountain!
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2016, 09:45:28 AM »
« Edited: September 28, 2016, 09:47:48 AM by 🍁 Hatman »

Yeah, in looking at the 1993 results, the Liberals did well in a few rural Saskatchewan seats (only winning in Souris-Moose Mountain but weren't far behind in most ridings). But, those days are long over.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2016, 01:28:04 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2016, 03:40:51 PM by King of Kensington »

That's for sure!  

Lowest Liberal vote, 2015:

Battle River-Crowfoot AB  9.37%
Victoria BC  11.81%
Peace River-Westlock AB  12.84%
Foothills AB  13.36%
Red Deer-Mountain View AB  13.43%
Souris-Moose Mountain SK  13.53%
Bow River AB  13.68%
Lakeland AB  13.69%
Yellowhead AB  14.22%
Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek SK  14.37%
Grande Prairie-Mackenzie AB  14.66%
Cypress Hills-Grasslands SK  14.86%

Not surprisingly, it lines up closely with the top Conservative ridings.

Highest Conservative vote, 2015:

Battle River-Crowfoot AB  80.91%
Bow River AB  77.42%
Foothills AB  75.7%
Red Deer-Mountain View AB  74.33%
Grande Prairie-Mackenzie AB  72.91%
Lakeland AB  72.81%
Yellowhead AB  72.25%
Red Deer-Lacombe AB  70.71%
Sturgeon River-Parkland AB   70.23%
Souris-Moose Mountain SK  70.14%
Peace River-Westlock AB  69.35%
Cypress Hills-Grasslands SK  69.19%

ETA:  Added Victoria, which is the real outlier.  All the rest are Conservative strongholds in AB/SK.
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