NBC/WSJ National: Clinton +7/+6
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ National: Clinton +7/+6  (Read 1634 times)
heatcharger
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« on: September 21, 2016, 04:01:16 PM »
« edited: September 21, 2016, 04:09:50 PM by heatcharger »
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-leads-trump-ahead-first-debate-n652141

https://www.scribd.com/document/324821200/16804-NBCWSJ-September-Poll-9-21-Release?secret_password=gKkeD7pKqo5rYoSPNmfU

LV:

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 41%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

RV:

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 41%

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

This is their first poll among likely voters. The survey was conducted from Sept. 16-19.

She's doing as well or better with likely voters. Very interesting.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2016, 04:01:36 PM »
Whoa! More than I expected
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 04:02:10 PM »
7 point lead in a 2 way race.
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2016, 04:02:35 PM »
Nate Silver will unskew this to Clinton +1 or tie for clicks

But NBC usually has the electorate within a point or two. Great poll!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2016, 04:02:54 PM »
Is this LV or RV?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2016, 04:02:56 PM »
Pew poll's credbility: +50
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2016, 04:03:02 PM »
Uh...

Hopefully.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2016, 04:03:22 PM »
whoa!!! Big numbers, looks like national polls are swinging back since the revival of "Birthergate" and the end of "pneumoniagate" in the MSM horse race cycle.

Was just going to post this.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2016, 04:03:44 PM »
This has been one of Clinton's better polls but this is surprising because of the swing state polls
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2016, 04:03:48 PM »
I'm reading online that these numbers are LV.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2016, 04:03:53 PM »
It's happening .gif!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2016, 04:04:53 PM »
ABSOLUTELY MAGNIFICENT

NATE SILVER ON SUICIDE WATCH
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2016, 04:05:18 PM »
Quote from: Classic Conservative on September 21, 2016, 04:03:44 PM
This has been one of Clinton's better polls but this is surprising because of the swing state polls

leading versus lagging indicators....

State polls will start to catch up if this number is close to accurate.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2016, 04:05:54 PM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on September 21, 2016, 04:03:48 PM
I'm reading online that these numbers are LV.

Thanks!
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2016, 04:06:07 PM »
Just in on MTP Daily: NBC/WSJ used the 2012 electorate as their LV screen
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2016, 04:06:38 PM »
Thank you sweet baby Jesus!
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2016, 04:07:08 PM »
Quote from: Representative dfwlibertylover on September 21, 2016, 04:06:07 PM
Just in on MTP Daily: NBC/WSJ used the 2012 electorate as their LV screen

Thats better than 2004 as a LV screen.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2016, 04:07:42 PM »
Great!!! Makes me feel a little better after seeing all the crappy state polls today.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2016, 04:08:47 PM »
And everyone was pissing themselves over nothing last week lol.
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dspNY
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2016, 04:08:54 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on September 21, 2016, 04:05:18 PM
Quote from: Classic Conservative on September 21, 2016, 04:03:44 PM
This has been one of Clinton's better polls but this is surprising because of the swing state polls

leading versus lagging indicators....

State polls will start to catch up if this number is close to accurate.

This is true. National polls are leading indicators and state polls are lagging indicators

Full #s

2-way H2H: Clinton 48, Trump 41 (both LV and RV)
4 way (LV): Clinton 43, Trump 37, Johnson 9, Stein 3
4 way (RV): Clinton 42, Trump 37, Johnson 9, Stein 3
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mencken
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2016, 04:09:38 PM »
Quote from: dspNY on September 21, 2016, 04:08:54 PM
National polls are leading indicators and state polls are lagging indicators

President Romney is not amused.
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dspNY
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2016, 04:11:28 PM »
On MSNBC they are saying that people who are interested in voting early have a "heavy Democratic lean"
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2016, 04:12:11 PM »
Quote from: mencken on September 21, 2016, 04:09:38 PM
Quote from: dspNY on September 21, 2016, 04:08:54 PM
National polls are leading indicators and state polls are lagging indicators

President Romney is not amused.

Damn! This made me literately bust out laughing.

Well done sir.... Smiley
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2016, 04:12:31 PM »
Quote from: mencken on September 21, 2016, 04:09:38 PM
Quote from: dspNY on September 21, 2016, 04:08:54 PM
National polls are leading indicators and state polls are lagging indicators

President Romney is not amused.
But 2012 was pretty consistent in all polls after the conventions. National polls showed tie to Obama plus 3, state polls put him on somewhat higher ground.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2016, 04:12:39 PM »
Wait Trumps only at 29% favorable while most polls show him at in the 40's
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