NH-Monmouth: Clinton +9

[Absolution9]

This poll really questions the idea that Maine is tied right now. Are they really that different of states?

Estimated share of non-college whites (RV, voter file estimates)

ME 67.5%
NH 51.0%

Yeah, and I bet CD-2 is more like 75% +.  A huge portion of Maine's non-white and college educated population lives in the Portland metro (I bet CD-2 is something like 96-97% white).  The only concentration of college educated people in CD-2 are near U of Maine and in the small seacoast towns.

Maine as a whole is probably at least +5 for Hillary but I can see CD-2 being for Trump by 5-10 points.  Really different demographics than NH which is very white but also one of the most college educated states in the country.

[Absolution9]

NH does look to be off the map. Then again, I do think this throws a wrench in the idea that states with a decent amount of whites without a college education are bound to trend toward Trump. We're not going to see NH swing 3.5% in Hillary's direction while Maine swings 10-15% in Trump's direction.

Trump won't win Maine as a whole but you really can't compare NH as a whole to Maine's CD-2.  New Hampshire has one of the highest percentage of college educated whites in the country and non-college educated whites are only 51% of total registered voters.  In Maine 67.5% of registered voters are non-college educated whites.  Since the overwhelming majority of non-whites and college educated whites are in the Portland metro area it means 75-80% of CD-2 registered voters are non-college educated whites.

That's a pretty huge difference, CD-2 is like a much larger version of the  Northern most county in NH and I bet that will go for Trump as well.

[Absolution9]

NH does look to be off the map. Then again, I do think this throws a wrench in the idea that states with a decent amount of whites without a college education are bound to trend toward Trump. We're not going to see NH swing 3.5% in Hillary's direction while Maine swings 10-15% in Trump's direction.

Trump won't win Maine as a whole but you really can't compare NH as a whole to Maine's CD-2.  New Hampshire has one of the highest percentage of college educated whites in the country and non-college educated whites are only 51% of total registered voters.  In Maine 67.5% of registered voters are non-college educated whites.  Since the overwhelming majority of non-whites and college educated whites are in the Portland metro area it means 75-80% of CD-2 registered voters are non-college educated whites.

That's a pretty huge difference, CD-2 is like a much larger version of the  Northern most county in NH and I bet that will go for Trump as well.

As someone who explores Northern New England on the weekends, I can tell you that any rural place outside of the perimeter of Boston has the potential to be SAF(shady as ). I saw in Northern Massachusetts, just a bunch of Trump signs and Hillary for Prison signs. Total Bubba country. New Hampshire and Northern Maine are the same except they have urban areas in NH that vote like Boston, Vermont, or the Berkshires.

That's true, northern Maine is rural punctuated by tons of former wood/paper industry towns.  It does have U of Maine near Bangor and a fairly wealthy seacoast region.  Most people in NH live in the south, that area is basically a wealthy extension of the Boston burbs.  The Western part of the state has more if a Vermont vibe and Dartmouth U and associated industry mean it has a large proportion of college educated people.