NH-Monmouth: Clinton +9
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  NH-Monmouth: Clinton +9
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Author Topic: NH-Monmouth: Clinton +9  (Read 3356 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: September 21, 2016, 12:04:11 PM »

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from September 17 to 20, 2016 with 400 New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

Clinton 47
Trump 38
Johnson 10
Stein 1

The freiwall holds!

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NH_092116/
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2016, 12:04:55 PM »

BEAUTIFUL!

TN Volunteer vindicated.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 12:05:11 PM »

So many angry women...
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2016, 12:05:22 PM »

Thats a spicy poll.
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bilaps
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2016, 12:06:45 PM »

Wow, didn't see that one coming. Trump chances way down after this one. Huge poll.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2016, 12:08:30 PM »

Wow, this is quite a party ID breakdown: R 23, I 51(!), D 26.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2016, 12:08:53 PM »

Congrats, TN Volunteer
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2016, 12:10:35 PM »
« Edited: September 21, 2016, 12:13:25 PM by dspNY »

Wow, this is quite a party ID breakdown: R 23, I 51(!), D 26.

New Hampshire has an absolute majority of nonaffiliated voters (or close to it) so I think that party breakdown is correct. (PS: In 2012, party ID in NH was 43I/30D/27R and with the general disillusionment towards the major parties, a 51% I electorate is possible in NH)

GREAT poll for Clinton
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2016, 12:11:55 PM »

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2016, 12:15:10 PM »

What do you guys think discredited fraud Nate Silver will unskew this one to? Clinton +2?
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mark_twain
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2016, 12:15:35 PM »

Great poll!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2016, 12:16:15 PM »

This poll really questions the idea that Maine is tied right now. Are they really that different of states?
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2016, 12:17:09 PM »

This poll really questions the idea that Maine is tied right now. Are they really that different of states?

The Maine polling we're seeing is very different than the Maine polling Clinton sees. Otherwise they would have ads up, especially in the 2nd CD
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2016, 12:28:18 PM »

This poll really questions the idea that Maine is tied right now. Are they really that different of states?

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/7786003106044928001/

Estimated share of non-college whites (RV, voter file estimates)

ME 67.5%
NH 51.0%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2016, 12:34:21 PM »

Great poll for Hillary.
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Absolution9
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2016, 12:34:39 PM »

This poll really questions the idea that Maine is tied right now. Are they really that different of states?



Estimated share of non-college whites (RV, voter file estimates)

ME 67.5%
NH 51.0%

Yeah, and I bet CD-2 is more like 75% +.  A huge portion of Maine's non-white and college educated population lives in the Portland metro (I bet CD-2 is something like 96-97% white).  The only concentration of college educated people in CD-2 are near U of Maine and in the small seacoast towns.

Maine as a whole is probably at least +5 for Hillary but I can see CD-2 being for Trump by 5-10 points.  Really different demographics than NH which is very white but also one of the most college educated states in the country.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2016, 12:40:20 PM »

TNVolunteer is the best pundit on this forum.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2016, 12:40:40 PM »

NH does look to be off the map. Then again, I do think this throws a wrench in the idea that states with a decent amount of whites without a college education are bound to trend toward Trump. We're not going to see NH swing 3.5% in Hillary's direction while Maine swings 10-15% in Trump's direction.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2016, 12:41:21 PM »

TNVolunteer is the best pundit on this forum.

Haven't you seen the Senate numbers? Hassan must be crying right now. Three straight polls showing Ayotte ahead, all from different companies too.
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Rand
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2016, 12:50:23 PM »

Oh no, shy Trump voters have returned in New Hampshire.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2016, 12:55:19 PM »

Buhhhhhhhhh Trump had NH in the bag!
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Absolution9
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2016, 01:08:56 PM »

NH does look to be off the map. Then again, I do think this throws a wrench in the idea that states with a decent amount of whites without a college education are bound to trend toward Trump. We're not going to see NH swing 3.5% in Hillary's direction while Maine swings 10-15% in Trump's direction.

Trump won't win Maine as a whole but you really can't compare NH as a whole to Maine's CD-2.  New Hampshire has one of the highest percentage of college educated whites in the country and non-college educated whites are only 51% of total registered voters.  In Maine 67.5% of registered voters are non-college educated whites.  Since the overwhelming majority of non-whites and college educated whites are in the Portland metro area it means 75-80% of CD-2 registered voters are non-college educated whites.

That's a pretty huge difference, CD-2 is like a much larger version of the  Northern most county in NH and I bet that will go for Trump as well.
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Person Man
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2016, 01:23:23 PM »

NH does look to be off the map. Then again, I do think this throws a wrench in the idea that states with a decent amount of whites without a college education are bound to trend toward Trump. We're not going to see NH swing 3.5% in Hillary's direction while Maine swings 10-15% in Trump's direction.

Trump won't win Maine as a whole but you really can't compare NH as a whole to Maine's CD-2.  New Hampshire has one of the highest percentage of college educated whites in the country and non-college educated whites are only 51% of total registered voters.  In Maine 67.5% of registered voters are non-college educated whites.  Since the overwhelming majority of non-whites and college educated whites are in the Portland metro area it means 75-80% of CD-2 registered voters are non-college educated whites.

That's a pretty huge difference, CD-2 is like a much larger version of the  Northern most county in NH and I bet that will go for Trump as well.
As someone who explores Northern New England on the weekends, I can tell you that any rural place outside of the perimeter of Boston has the potential to be SAF(shady as ). I saw in Northern Massachusetts, just a bunch of Trump signs and Hillary for Prison signs. Total Bubba country. New Hampshire and Northern Maine are the same except they have urban areas in NH that vote like Boston, Vermont, or the Berkshires.
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Alcon
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2016, 01:33:40 PM »

NH does look to be off the map. Then again, I do think this throws a wrench in the idea that states with a decent amount of whites without a college education are bound to trend toward Trump. We're not going to see NH swing 3.5% in Hillary's direction while Maine swings 10-15% in Trump's direction.

Trump won't win Maine as a whole but you really can't compare NH as a whole to Maine's CD-2.  New Hampshire has one of the highest percentage of college educated whites in the country and non-college educated whites are only 51% of total registered voters.  In Maine 67.5% of registered voters are non-college educated whites.  Since the overwhelming majority of non-whites and college educated whites are in the Portland metro area it means 75-80% of CD-2 registered voters are non-college educated whites.

That's a pretty huge difference, CD-2 is like a much larger version of the  Northern most county in NH and I bet that will go for Trump as well.
As someone who explores Northern New England on the weekends, I can tell you that any rural place outside of the perimeter of Boston has the potential to be SAF(shady as ). I saw in Northern Massachusetts, just a bunch of Trump signs and Hillary for Prison signs. Total Bubba country. New Hampshire and Northern Maine are the same except they have urban areas in NH that vote like Boston, Vermont, or the Berkshires.

I don't know New Hampshire super well, but doesn't it have virtually no partisanship gap between urban and rural areas?  In fact, maybe rural areas and small towns are a little more Dem?
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Absolution9
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2016, 01:34:58 PM »

NH does look to be off the map. Then again, I do think this throws a wrench in the idea that states with a decent amount of whites without a college education are bound to trend toward Trump. We're not going to see NH swing 3.5% in Hillary's direction while Maine swings 10-15% in Trump's direction.

Trump won't win Maine as a whole but you really can't compare NH as a whole to Maine's CD-2.  New Hampshire has one of the highest percentage of college educated whites in the country and non-college educated whites are only 51% of total registered voters.  In Maine 67.5% of registered voters are non-college educated whites.  Since the overwhelming majority of non-whites and college educated whites are in the Portland metro area it means 75-80% of CD-2 registered voters are non-college educated whites.

That's a pretty huge difference, CD-2 is like a much larger version of the  Northern most county in NH and I bet that will go for Trump as well.
As someone who explores Northern New England on the weekends, I can tell you that any rural place outside of the perimeter of Boston has the potential to be SAF(shady as ). I saw in Northern Massachusetts, just a bunch of Trump signs and Hillary for Prison signs. Total Bubba country. New Hampshire and Northern Maine are the same except they have urban areas in NH that vote like Boston, Vermont, or the Berkshires.

That's true, northern Maine is rural punctuated by tons of former wood/paper industry towns.  It does have U of Maine near Bangor and a fairly wealthy seacoast region.  Most people in NH live in the south, that area is basically a wealthy extension of the Boston burbs.  The Western part of the state has more if a Vermont vibe and Dartmouth U and associated industry mean it has a large proportion of college educated people.
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