FL - Monmouth: Clinton +5

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It's time to move on. Hopefully, we just get President Tim Kaine and that's that.

[KingSweden]

The Siena Poll is Clinton +3 or Clinton +4 if you apply different LV screens. This may be at the outer edge, but it's not ridiculous, especially if we're correcting from an artificial blip for Trump.

And it could be Trump +1

Hence averages

[Brittain33]

The Siena Poll is Clinton +3 or Clinton +4 if you apply different LV screens. This may be at the outer edge, but it's not ridiculous, especially if we're correcting from an artificial blip for Trump.

And it could be Trump +1

Also true.

Clinton +9 in Florida would be an outlier. If we assume Clinton's recovering, as it looks like she is, Clinton +5 is a reasonable result. If she's not recovering and the race is still Clinton +1/2 nationally, with Trump having big problems with Hispanics, Clinton +5 looks like outer edge of reasonable range.

[Lief 🗽]

RIP TRUMP. Looks like the angry Puerto Ricans are giving him a good thrashing here.

[StatesPoll]

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

I'll update as I get more.

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Oh sh**t....


But '400' LV = Not enough Sample size for Yuge State FL

[ProudModerate2]

The Siena Poll is Clinton +3 or Clinton +4 if you apply different LV screens. This may be at the outer edge, but it's not ridiculous, especially if we're correcting from an artificial blip for Trump.

And it could be Trump +1

Also true.

Clinton +9 in Florida would be an outlier. If we assume Clinton's recovering, as it looks like she is, Clinton +5 is a reasonable result. If she's not recovering and the race is still Clinton +1/2 nationally, with Trump having big problems with Hispanics, Clinton +5 looks like outer edge of reasonable range.

With a recent analysis of trump falling an additional 1 to 2 points with Hispanics, a Clinton +5 in Florida could be an accurate picture.

[Xing]

This does seem a bit Clinton-friendly, especially since their last poll was even more Clinton-friendly, but the head of Monmouth did say that polls this week would tell a different story from polls last week. I'll eat my shoe if NV is seven points to the right of FL, but it's possible that things were just abysmal for Hillary last week, and that she's improving.

[Phony Moderate]

If Hillary gets an overwhelming win in the first debate next week though...

[Dr. Arch]

RIP TRUMP. Looks like the angry Puerto Ricans are giving him a good thrashing here.

We are very angry.

[Wiz in Wis]

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

I'll update as I get more.

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Oh sh**t....


But '400' LV = Not enough Sample size for Yuge State FL

False.

to get 95% confidence with a 5% error (most polls aim for this) you need 384 completes in a population of 10 million.

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

And the population doesn't really matter that much. You need the exact same number for a state with 2 million, or even 500k.

[Person Man]

He's recovered 4 points since his trough and now things have stabilized. If She was 8ish and now down to 2ish, she could still be leading here if Florida has moved a couple of points to the left.

[NOVA Green]

Goes against every recent forida poll. Even the august poll was an outleir .

*A+

I'll take an A+ pollster as closer to reality than most of the other recents, considering that Florida is a tougher state to poll than most.

The numbers might be a point or two high for Clinton, but would definitely be concerned about this poll if I were part of Team Trump.

[mark_twain]

I believe the positive aspect of the "deplorables" comment is now starting to kick in for Clinton, based on this poll and a few others.

The immediate effect was obviously negative, but the Trump campaign's criticism of that comment is now facing backlash in the form of increased support for Clinton, from her supporters.

[Gass3268]

Goes against every recent forida poll. Even the august poll was an outleir .

*A+

I'll take an A+ pollster as closer to reality than most of the other recents, considering that Florida is a tougher state to poll than most.

The numbers might be a point or two high for Clinton, but would definitely be concerned about this poll if I were part of Team Trump.

They jumped in the field 2 days after NYT Upshot/Siena was done, so this might even show a growing trend for Clinton here.

I believe the positive aspect of the "deplorables" comment is now starting to kick in for Clinton, based on this poll and a few others.

The immediate effect was obviously negative, but the Trump campaign's criticism of that comment is now facing backlash in the form of increased support for Clinton, from her supporters.

I think a 4 day discussion on birtherism was main reason the numbers have started to move.

[StatesPoll]

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

I'll update as I get more.

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Oh sh**t....


But '400' LV = Not enough Sample size for Yuge State FL

False.

to get 95% confidence with a 5% error (most polls aim for this) you need 384 completes in a population of 10 million.

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

And the population doesn't really matter that much. You need the exact same number for a state with 2 million, or even 500k.

Florida - 35 counties exceeded, total 50k votes in Election 2012
Iowa - only 6 counties exceeded total 50k votes in Election 2012
Nevada - only 2 counties exceeded total 50k votes in Election 2012 (Clarck,Washoe there)
 
so 400 LV = not enough volume for Florida.

[Ebsy]

lol at Statespoll just making stuff up. Why is this troll not banned?

[NOVA Green]

Goes against every recent forida poll. Even the august poll was an outleir .

*A+

I'll take an A+ pollster as closer to reality than most of the other recents, considering that Florida is a tougher state to poll than most.

The numbers might be a point or two high for Clinton, but would definitely be concerned about this poll if I were part of Team Trump.

They jumped in the field 2 days after NYT Upshot/Siena was done, so this might even show a growing trend for Clinton here.

I believe the positive aspect of the "deplorables" comment is now starting to kick in for Clinton, based on this poll and a few others.

The immediate effect was obviously negative, but the Trump campaign's criticism of that comment is now facing backlash in the form of increased support for Clinton, from her supporters.

I think a 4 day discussion on birtherism was main reason the numbers have started to move.

This is entirely possible, especially considering Obama's extremely high approval numbers, and even a huge number of Republicans believing that this was a politically motivated shift in position, and not his actual attitudes. We'll need to wait a few more days to see if this trend continues, and even then there is a potential wildcard/distortions as a result of the NY/NJ terror story news cycle.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Goes against every recent forida poll. Even the august poll was an outleir .

*A+

that didn't stop the red avatars (or the homosexual wisconsinite) from crapping all over the iowa and nevada monmouth polls.

All I am saying is that this poll and it's senate race is off by a decent number compared to all other florida polls taken in september. PPP and nate cohn's pollster aren't exactly duds, and neither is CNN.

Or, you know. It isn't September 14 anymore.

[NOVA Green]

Goes against every recent forida poll. Even the august poll was an outleir .

*A+

that didn't stop the red avatars (or the homosexual wisconsinite) from crapping all over the iowa and nevada monmouth polls.

All I am saying is that this poll and it's senate race is off by a decent number compared to all other florida polls taken in september. PPP and nate cohn's pollster aren't exactly duds, and neither is CNN.

Marty--- this is factually inaccurate (Bolded relevant sentence). I went through and reread all of the Red Avatar posts regarding Monmouth-IA poll, and the reality is that the vast majority of posters weren't "crapping over Monmouth polls", but rather collectively "crapping their pants" over an incredibly strong performance for Trump from a high quality polling firm.

In fact many red avatars, and whatever unknown "homosexuals" from various states on the forum (Insert bizarre comment that you made) went to a point where many were positing Team Clinton should maybe scale down resources in Iowa and shift to other states....

As I stated earlier, I would much rather take an A+ pollster than junk polling firms to reflect an accurate picture within a fixed period of time.  Personally, I think FL has now shifted to a slight Clinton lead, but there are many unknowns with voting models and polling assumptions in states with fast growing net inmigration/outmigration regarding what the actual composition of the electorate will be come November.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

I'll update as I get more.

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Oh sh**t....


But '400' LV = Not enough Sample size for Yuge State FL

False.

to get 95% confidence with a 5% error (most polls aim for this) you need 384 completes in a population of 10 million.

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

And the population doesn't really matter that much. You need the exact same number for a state with 2 million, or even 500k.

Florida - 35 counties exceeded, total 50k votes in Election 2012
Iowa - only 6 counties exceeded total 50k votes in Election 2012
Nevada - only 2 counties exceeded total 50k votes in Election 2012 (Clarck,Washoe there)
 
so 400 LV = not enough volume for Florida.

The number of observations in the population to sample is irrelevant to the precision of sample estimators.

[mark_twain]

Great poll!

Looking forward to more results!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

lol at Statespoll just making stuff up. Why is this troll not banned?

Because he makes us feel better about ourselves and our life choices. Considering the amount of time we spend on a place like this, Statespoll is a living testament that "you know, life isn't all bad, you could be him"

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

RIP TRUMP. Looks like the angry Puerto Ricans are giving him a good thrashing here.

Wise words.  They are BEYOND MIFFED at Trump and his racism.  Color it Atlas Red, folks!

[President Johnson]

Good news. Trump is already losing momentum.

[StatesPoll]

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

I'll update as I get more.

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Despite of this outlier Poll(little '400' LV)
Liberal's hero 'Nate Silver' says, TRUMP has 60.0% Chance of winning Florida
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#now