CA-Field Poll: Clinton +17
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 16, 2024, 05:39:05 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  CA-Field Poll: Clinton +17
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: CA-Field Poll: Clinton +17  (Read 2107 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,283
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 19, 2016, 11:40:59 PM »

50% Clinton (D)
33% Trump (R)
6% Stein (G)
5% Johnson (L)

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/presidential-election/article102803037.html
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 11:42:11 PM »

OMG we've hit peak Stein!!!

Duck, run... everyone save your vaccines.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,119
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2016, 11:42:24 PM »

Stein is running on two tickets now! Wow!
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2016, 11:46:21 PM »

Surprisingly weak for Clinton actually.  But was this the poll that underestimated Obama all through 2012?
Field has pretty terrible record.
Logged
Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,831


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2016, 12:13:41 AM »

RIP Johnson.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,451
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2016, 12:57:35 AM »

Stein beating Johnson! Woot!
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,835
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2016, 05:20:36 AM »

Surprisingly weak for Clinton actually.  But was this the poll that underestimated Obama all through 2012?
Field has pretty terrible record.

It actually has the best record of any long term pollster and would explain why we see Stein at 4% in some national polls. Remember how bitter the Sanders California delegation was at the DNC
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2016, 08:41:12 AM »

This is not unreasonable. CA will be Stein's bestbstate
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,629
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2016, 09:30:43 AM »

New Poll: California President by Field Research Corporation on 2016-09-13

Summary: D: 50%, R: 33%, I: 11%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,451
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2016, 10:43:48 AM »
« Edited: September 23, 2016, 05:21:04 AM by Eraserhead »

This is not unreasonable. CA will be Stein's bestbstate

If we're talking about total votes received, of course.

If we're talking about percentages, I doubt it. It might be in the top five or six though.

I'd be pretty surprised if Vermont wasn't her best state in terms of the % of the vote she gets.
Logged
Bakersfield Uber Alles
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,729
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2016, 11:32:22 AM »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 11:35:45 AM by Fubart Solman »

This is not unreasonable. CA will be Stein's bestbstate

If we're talking about total votes received, of course.

If we're talking about percentages, I doubt it. It'll probably be in her top five or six.

I'd be pretty surprised if Vermont wasn't her best sate though.

Vermont counts all write in votes. I'd bet that Bernie will take a percent or two from Stein.

Not that CA will be Stein's best state by percentage though. It will be her best by number of votes though. Probably Johnson's best by sheer number of votes too.

I'm guessing that Johnson will beat Stein though.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2016, 01:05:54 AM »
« Edited: September 21, 2016, 01:07:52 AM by Sbane »

So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2016, 02:03:17 AM »

So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I just can't see her losing Riverside County. State Democrats have been registering Latinos here like crazy, particularly in the Coachella Valley and Riverside city. My belief is that middle class Latinos will eventually come home and Riverside County goes about 51/52% for Hillary.

At least for the downballots, Democrats look to be doing very well in Riverside this year
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2016, 02:23:20 AM »

So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I just can't see her losing Riverside County. State Democrats have been registering Latinos here like crazy, particularly in the Coachella Valley and Riverside city. My belief is that middle class Latinos will eventually come home and Riverside County goes about 51/52% for Hillary.

At least for the downballots, Democrats look to be doing very well in Riverside this year

I agree with you. Which is why I am very skeptical of the polls out of Nevada. It doesn't make sense to me. I can envision a swing to Trump in San Bernardino County though. See how it voted in 2014 while the rest of the state was swinging hard to Brown (though Brown overperformed in 2010 to be fair).
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2016, 02:48:43 AM »

So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I think you're underestimating just how difficult it is to properly poll Latinos.

The reality is that there aren't that many "middle class" Latinos in either Clark County or Riverside County of the sort that you're describing. Almost any household that is Spanish-speaking and Mexican-American will not be voting for Trump; there are no "undecided" voters in this category. The issue is that, for reasons relating to sampling, the poll is probably picking up more third or fourth generation Mexican-Americans than exist in the voting population of California. These are the only Hispanics who would consider voting for Trump...

I'd be willing to bet that polls are disastrously wrong across the board in estimating the preferences of Hispanic voters; Spanish-speaking immigrants and their children are segmented from society, they frequently move because they tend to be tenants etc. They're a very difficult group to poll, even if a Spanish-language option is available. The ones who speak Spanish, particularly if they are Mexican, are uniformly hostile towards Trump and about as engaged as voters with of their demographic background can be. Suffice it to say that I expect Clinton to crush Trump in the Inland Empire; it's going to be a bloodbath of epic proportions, unparalleled in history for both counties.
Logged
Donnie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2016, 03:11:28 AM »

OMG we've hit peak Stein!!!

Duck, run... everyone save your vaccines.

CA will be her best state most probably.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2016, 04:02:38 AM »
« Edited: September 21, 2016, 04:08:13 AM by Interlocutor »

Suffice it to say that I expect Clinton to crush Trump in the Inland Empire; it's going to be a bloodbath of epic proportions, unparalleled in history for both counties.

This has been my opinion since the spring. The voter registration numbers out of Riverside County are quite astounding to me. Since January, its gone from 38-36 Republican to 38-37 Democrat. In just the last 7 days, Democrats gained 2550 voters while thee Republicans gained 465 voters. Local legislature districts that were fairly red are now flipping blue in a matter of weeks.

In my opinion, this is the year Riverside County locks in its blueness (Or redness, for Atlas sake) and waves goodbye to any vestiges of the Reagan Republicans
Logged
Bakersfield Uber Alles
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,729
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2016, 11:47:20 AM »

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I doubt she will win any counties, but stranger things have happened this year. I do agree that she will hit double digits in those counties. Nader and Camejo topped out at about 16% in the early 2000's. Stein got 4.34% in 2012 in Humboldt with Rosanne Barr and Cindy Sheehan taking 0.64%. Mendocino went 2.84% Stein and 0.94% Barr in 2012. I could see Stein breaking 15% in both; 20% would be a stretch.

In the 2002 gubernatorial race, Peter Camejo got 5.26% statewide and 12.05% in Hunboldt. I looked it up a few weeks ago and Camejo actually won three precincts in Humboldt County. Camejo got 16.54% in Mendocino, but I couldn't find results by precinct that far back when I checked.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,451
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2016, 05:27:29 AM »

Stein won't win any counties but if she did I'm sure they'd be in Vermont.

Maybe Johnson can win one or two somewhere though.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 12 queries.