GA-Monmouth: Trump +3

[MT Treasurer]

45% Trump (R)
42% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_GA_091916/

[Fusionmunster]

GA could flip if Hillary retakes a solid lead again.

[ApatheticAustrian]

since they otherwise show good results for trump i guess either all of their findings are a little bit off or this race is reaaaaaaaaaally open without a landwide trend into one direction.

[KingSweden]

That's... Less than I thought. Some odd trends nationwide this year, as our new Austrian friend sakd

[Lief 🗽]

Time to abandon Iowa and go all in on Georgia.

[Xing]

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

[Wiz in Wis]

Georgia has like 0% elasticity apparently.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is just one more indication that Georgia is going to be close this year.  No matter who wins the election, I think the state will be decided by less than 3 points; probably for Trump.  He has the same problem in the Atlanta suburbs as in the Philadelphia suburbs (although to a lesser extent than in Philly, certainly).  The normal enthusiasm for the Republican candidate just isn't there. 

[HillOfANight]

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

Not necessarily. Nevada has a lot of non college white voters that went Obama, that can fall to Trump. The non college white vote in GA was already solid GOP, and Trump is bleeding the educated white vote to Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html

[Matty]

Clinton is getting no more support than obama did. It's trump that is bleeding votes to johnson.

[HillOfANight]

Clinton is getting no more support than obama did. It's trump that is bleeding votes to johnson.

True, he's losing more to Johnson than Clinton. Still, she's getting crushed by whites by only 40 in most Georgia polls, compared to Obama getting crushed by 50.

[Person Man]

It collaborates the current Nate S. narrative of a race pretty similar to 04/12.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think she's gotta go for it. Her numbers here are more resilient than they are elsewhere, it seems. Georgia could be a silver bullet if Trump seems to be doing better elsewhere.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am not sure if silver either just wants to prevent people getting away with blaming him if trump would win ...(cause many viewers of 538 can't "understand" their system properly).....or, as a liberal himself, wants to burst the "echo room"-bubble of social-liberal media and analysts, who could help trump by accident through constantly underestimating his chances.

[Person Man]

I think she's gotta go for it. Her numbers here are more resilient than they are elsewhere, it seems. Georgia could be a silver bullet if Trump seems to be doing better elsewhere.

Let's avoid Pennsylvania-style thinking where you spend all your time here and still end up losing by 8 points nationally, the state by like 8 or 10 points and lose every swing state plus one state that you never were even to campaign in.

[Xing]

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

Not necessarily. Nevada has a lot of non college white voters that went Obama, that can fall to Trump. The non college white vote in GA was already solid GOP, and Trump is bleeding the educated white vote to Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html

White voters without a college degree are only part of the equation. If Hillary is within 3 in GA, that shows a massive improvement among college educates whites, which would have a smaller, but still noticeable impact in NV, and it likely means that minority turnout has not gone down (and may have gone up) since 2012, which is exactly why I stand by my assertions about NV.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I think she's gotta go for it. Her numbers here are more resilient than they are elsewhere, it seems. Georgia could be a silver bullet if Trump seems to be doing better elsewhere.

while georgia would absolutely crush trump and cancel out even the hope of game-changing through invading ohio....i fear that this is too early, since clinton's numbers could be pumped-up through johnson and through low republican motivation for a change. if the polls make it into a real toss-up a late-game-breakdown of johnson could kill hillary's chances even if she sinks millions in atlanta.

north carolina seems to be the much safer battleground and in need of cash and attention anyway, imo.

[Figueira]

I don't think Clinton should rely on Georgia in order to win, but it would be pretty cool if she ended up winning it.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Just wanna emphasize that my argument relies on the premise that she has more than enough money to go around. And that does seem to be the case.

[HillOfANight]

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

Not necessarily. Nevada has a lot of non college white voters that went Obama, that can fall to Trump. The non college white vote in GA was already solid GOP, and Trump is bleeding the educated white vote to Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html

White voters without a college degree are only part of the equation. If Hillary is within 3 in GA, that shows a massive improvement among college educates whites, which would have a smaller, but still noticeable impact in NV, and it likely means that minority turnout has not gone down (and may have gone up) since 2012, which is exactly why I stand by my assertions about NV.

as marty said, Trump is only up 40 among whites on her (46 in this poll), but most of that is going to Johnson, not her. She's in the low 20s with whites, which is where Obama was. Though if Johnson can sustain that support, that is good for her. Without a third party, she would need 30% of whites to win.

[Dr. Arch]

Nega-Michigan

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Hillary is more likely to win GA than IA? Surreal.

[KingSweden]

So Hillary is more likely to win GA than IA? Surreal.

[pppolitics]

Hillary needs to invest more money in GA.

[JerryArkansas]

Also, Kelly Conway, Trump manager is bragging about his poll on twitter.  Battleground GA commences.