Portugal's politics and elections

[Lord Halifax]

What worries me Watermelon, is the financial sustainability of the state. It's not a matter of leftwing or rightwing in my opinion, it's a case of basic economics. When you have a state where 80% of all it's revenue goes to pensions and salaries, you need to be very carefull on using the money and the problem about this policies, who have good intentions no doubt, are the very weak financial base they have and that worries me as a taxpayer.

About Carris and the PM statement, public transport companies here in Portugal are a complete mess. They are literally bankrupt for decades and only survive by government bailout. The most shocking cases are Carris, STCP (Porto bus company) and the Lisbon subway. Why are they in this mess? For years, these companies were used as political weapons by the PSD and PS to gain power and to distribute "jobs for the boys". The previous government wanted to privatize this companies but their efforts failed when the PS took over office, although there are lawsuits filed by the companies that won the contests against the government, let's see how this ends. The PS wants to municipalize public transport companies, but because the companies are so indebted someone has to keep the debt. Townships don't want more debt because they have enough debt of their own, so the state has to come for the rescue.  

If they are organized as companies why cant they just go bankrupt and their assets bought my the municipalities? (or the state)

[Lord Halifax]

What worries me Watermelon, is the financial sustainability of the state. It's not a matter of leftwing or rightwing in my opinion, it's a case of basic economics. When you have a state where 80% of all it's revenue goes to pensions and salaries, you need to be very carefull on using the money and the problem about this policies, who have good intentions no doubt, are the very weak financial base they have and that worries me as a taxpayer.

About Carris and the PM statement, public transport companies here in Portugal are a complete mess. They are literally bankrupt for decades and only survive by government bailout. The most shocking cases are Carris, STCP (Porto bus company) and the Lisbon subway. Why are they in this mess? For years, these companies were used as political weapons by the PSD and PS to gain power and to distribute "jobs for the boys". The previous government wanted to privatize this companies but their efforts failed when the PS took over office, although there are lawsuits filed by the companies that won the contests against the government, let's see how this ends. The PS wants to municipalize public transport companies, but because the companies are so indebted someone has to keep the debt. Townships don't want more debt because they have enough debt of their own, so the state has to come for the rescue.  

If they are organized as companies why cant they just go bankrupt and their assets bought my the municipalities? (or the state)

Because they are companies already owned by the state, but who have an administration of it's own.

A company owned by the state can go bankrupt, it just depends how it is organized. You could transform them into limited companies with the state as sole shareholder before you did it, if necessary.

[Lord Halifax]

IPOM poll for the 2017 local election in the municipality of Paredes (PSD incumbent)

1st option, if PSD candidate is Joaquim Neves
24.2% PSD
22.4% PS
  2.3% CDU
  1.9% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.6% DR
28.6% DK
  7.9% Abstention

2nd option, if PSD candidate is Rui Moutinho
24.6% PS
17.3% PSD
  2.6% CDU
  3.6% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.8% DR
33.7% DK
  5.5% Abstention

The poll was conducted before the elections in the local PSD Paredes which were won by Rui Moutinho by a 53% to 47% margin. It's expected be will be the official candidate, but according to local newspapers he was not the favorite candidate of the current mayor Celso Ferreira, which is barred for reelection because of term limits, so anything could still happen. Still to early to say who is going to win this but Paredes could swing to the PS this time around, particularly because in 2013 the PSD only won by 0.16%.

More info here:
http://www.erc.pt/pt/sondagens/publicitacao-de-sondagens/depositos-de-2016/estudo-sociopolitico-no-concelho-de-paredes-20161221-200546

http://verdadeiroolhar.pt/2016/12/05/rui-moutinho-novo-presidente-da-comissao-politica-do-psd-paredes/

Who is DK?

Mr. Don't Know

[Lord Halifax]

Will Coelho likely be ousted if the PSD fail?

That's the million dollar question right now in Portuguese politics. Passos Coelho has already said that win or lose the local elections, he will contest the 2018 leadership race. Rui Rio, the most likely opponent of Coelho, has also stated that he would put his name forward in 2018 but at the moment his name isn't well received in the party militancy. In fact newspapers reported in December that in party meetings he received a very negative response from militants of the party and because of this he stopped any attempt from his supports of summon a congress this year.

Time will tell, but who knows. The most likely outcome is that if he loses the elections he will be ousted, but he won't give up without a fight, that's for sure.

Militants is a very odd phrase to use in English. I take it you mean members/supporters?

[Lord Halifax]

How factional is PS? I understand Costa is from the left of the party, but does he have any internal enemies or different power bases to keep happy?

He originally came from the right and was tough on law & order as Minister of Justice. He just moved left tactically to get a shot at the leadership.

[Lord Halifax]

Wouldn't joining the CDS be a more practical move?

Not really, because the CDS hates his guts. They withdrew their support from him in 2017 and since then want nothing to do with him.

Why is that?

[Lord Halifax]

Do Portuguese people actually like bullfighting, or is it the domain of old people like in Spain?

Well, bullfighting is still relatively popular in Portugal. Although there isn't, i believe, numbers to prove it, common sense would say that younger people, particularly in urban/suburban areas, would be quite disinterested with bullfighting compared with older of middle age people. In rural areas, particularly in Alentejo, things may be different, but, this is just my understanding.

Why do young people not like bullfighting?

[Lord Halifax]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

Israel also has a lot of emigration, and voters abroad are registered to vote but aren't allowed to do so from abroad. Turnout is still between 65 and 70 percent.

Why and where are Portuguese emigrating, though? I always had the impression that a lot of Schengen citizens came to Portugal but not so much the other way around, and that a low birthrate was Portugal's main demographic challenge.

Many emigrated during the 1960's, 70's to France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, Canada, USA. In the early 20th century, many emigrated to Brazil, and most recently, during the troika years, to the UK and Germany.

Many emigrants, from the last century, left Portugal because of poverty, bad living conditions and the dictatorship. During the crisis, a lot people, especially young people, left the country in search of better job opportunities.

And don't forget Luxembourg, around 15% of its population is Portuguese.

Yes, forgot about them. South Africa, Angola and Mozambique also have a lot or Portuguese emmigrants.

...why? Gilded Luxembourg I get. But Angola? Really, Portugal?

Angola has a booming economy thanks to its oil sector. It's a land of opportunity with the right skills. Mozambique also has a high growth rate.