Portugal's politics and elections

[VPH]

Something interesting I have noticed in previous elections: Small parties tend to perform oddly well in the Algarve. In Faro district in 2015, EVERY SINGLE party that didn't win a seat (and PAN) outperformed their national average, sometimes by quite a bit too. In 2019, most of them were above the national average, albeit by less.

[Mike88]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

[Farmlands]

Just came back from the voting booth. Ultimately ended up going for the Left Bloc, based on the party leaders, since I couldn't decide otherwise. Let's see if I can get a close projection:

PS - 38% (S&D)
PSD - 28% (EPP)
BE - 11% (GUE)
CDU - 7% (GUE)
CDS - 5% (EPP)
PAN - 4% (EFA)

[Mike88]

Turnout projections:

RTP: 51-56%

SIC: 48.5-52.5%

CMTV: 52-56%

TVI (only mainland Portugal): 60.6-64.6%

[windjammer]

Turnout projections:

RTP: 51-56%

SIC: 48.5-52.5%

CMTV: 52-56%

Is it better of worse?

[Mike88]

Turnout projections:

RTP: 51-56%

SIC: 48.5-52.5%

CMTV: 52-56%

Is it better of worse?

Worse, but expected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

[Mike88]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

The issue is that having 1,4 million voters overseas in a country of 10,3 million is too much. Overseas voting is always very small, so the turnout rate would always decrease a lot. A good idea would be to sent all 1,4 million overseas voters a letter saying it they want to vote or not, if they return it they registered, if they don't sent it back, they're out. At least that my opinion.

[Walmart_shopper]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

Israel also has a lot of emigration, and voters abroad are registered to vote but aren't allowed to do so from abroad. Turnout is still between 65 and 70 percent.

Why and where are Portuguese emigrating, though? I always had the impression that a lot of Schengen citizens came to Portugal but not so much the other way around, and that a low birthrate was Portugal's main demographic challenge.

[windjammer]

When the exit polls will be out?

[Mike88]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

Israel also has a lot of emigration, and voters abroad are registered to vote but aren't allowed to do so from abroad. Turnout is still between 65 and 70 percent.

Why and where are Portuguese emigrating, though? I always had the impression that a lot of Schengen citizens came to Portugal but not so much the other way around, and that a low birthrate was Portugal's main demographic challenge.

Many emigrated during the 1960's, 70's to France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, Canada, USA. In the early 20th century, many emigrated to Brazil, and most recently, during the troika years, to the UK and Germany.

Many emigrants, from the last century, left Portugal because of poverty, bad living conditions and the dictatorship. During the crisis, a lot people, especially young people, left the country in search of better job opportunities.

[windjammer]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

Israel also has a lot of emigration, and voters abroad are registered to vote but aren't allowed to do so from abroad. Turnout is still between 65 and 70 percent.

Why and where are Portuguese emigrating, though? I always had the impression that a lot of Schengen citizens came to Portugal but not so much the other way around, and that a low birthrate was Portugal's main demographic challenge.

Many emigrated during the 1960's, 70's to France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, Canada, USA. In the early 20th century, many emigrated to Brazil, and most recently, during the troika years, to the UK and Germany.

Many emigrants, from the last century, left Portugal because of poverty, bad living conditions and the dictatorship. During the crisis, a lot people, especially young people, left the country in search of better job opportunities.

And don't forget Luxembourg, around 15% of its population is Portuguese.

[Mike88]

When the exit polls will be out?

20:00h, in about 36 minutes.

Social media is already busing with rumored "exit polls".

[Mike88]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

Israel also has a lot of emigration, and voters abroad are registered to vote but aren't allowed to do so from abroad. Turnout is still between 65 and 70 percent.

Why and where are Portuguese emigrating, though? I always had the impression that a lot of Schengen citizens came to Portugal but not so much the other way around, and that a low birthrate was Portugal's main demographic challenge.

Many emigrated during the 1960's, 70's to France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, Canada, USA. In the early 20th century, many emigrated to Brazil, and most recently, during the troika years, to the UK and Germany.

Many emigrants, from the last century, left Portugal because of poverty, bad living conditions and the dictatorship. During the crisis, a lot people, especially young people, left the country in search of better job opportunities.

And don't forget Luxembourg, around 15% of its population is Portuguese.

Yes, forgot about them. South Africa, Angola and Mozambique also have a lot or Portuguese emmigrants.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, the Portuguese are our Mexicans

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

Better 55% turnout where 60% vote for the left than 75% turnout where 60% vote for fascists though eh?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean, I take democratic participation seriously enough that even as a leftist this isn't self-evident to me, but point taken.

[Mike88]

15 minutes...

[Mike88]

I will have a dinner party tonight, so I won't be able to post results, but here's the election results site:

https://www.legislativas2019.mai.gov.pt/

[Walmart_shopper]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

Israel also has a lot of emigration, and voters abroad are registered to vote but aren't allowed to do so from abroad. Turnout is still between 65 and 70 percent.

Why and where are Portuguese emigrating, though? I always had the impression that a lot of Schengen citizens came to Portugal but not so much the other way around, and that a low birthrate was Portugal's main demographic challenge.

Many emigrated during the 1960's, 70's to France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, Canada, USA. In the early 20th century, many emigrated to Brazil, and most recently, during the troika years, to the UK and Germany.

Many emigrants, from the last century, left Portugal because of poverty, bad living conditions and the dictatorship. During the crisis, a lot people, especially young people, left the country in search of better job opportunities.

And don't forget Luxembourg, around 15% of its population is Portuguese.

Yes, forgot about them. South Africa, Angola and Mozambique also have a lot or Portuguese emmigrants.

...why? Gilded Luxembourg I get. But Angola? Really, Portugal?

[windjammer]

PSPartido Socialista   
38,41%111.442 votos
PPD/PSDPartido Social Democrata   
33,69%97.734 votos
B.E.Bloco de Esquerda   
6,70%19.428 votos
CDS-PPCDS - Partido Popular   
4,92%14.278 votos
PCP-PEVCDU - Coligação Democrática Unitária   
4,45%12.904 votos
PANPESSOAS-ANIMAIS-NATUREZA   
1,72%4.981 votos
CHCHEGA   
0,93%2.704 votos
R.I.R.Reagir Incluir Reciclar   
0,84%2.436 votos
PCTP/MRPPPartido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses   
0,68%1.963 votos
AAliança   
0,48%1.399 votos
LLIVRE   
0,48%1.391 votos
ILIniciativa Liberal   
0,43%1.238 votos
PNRPartido Nacional Renovador   
0,21%598 votos
NCNós, Cidadãos!   
0,20%583 votos
PDRPartido Democrático Republicano   
0,20%582 votos
PURPPartido Unido dos Reformados e Pensionistas   
0,19%547 votos
PPMPartido Popular Monárquico   
0,18%530 votos
PTPPartido Trabalhista Português   
0,17%490 votos
MPTPartido da Terra   
0,17%479 votos
JPPJuntos pelo Povo   
0,09%255 votos
MASMovimento Alternativa Socialista   
0,02%59 votos

[bigic]

...why? Gilded Luxembourg I get. But Angola? Really, Portugal?

Angola was a Portuguese colony.

[Walmart_shopper]

That's absentee voting, correct?

[Lord Halifax]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

Israel also has a lot of emigration, and voters abroad are registered to vote but aren't allowed to do so from abroad. Turnout is still between 65 and 70 percent.

Why and where are Portuguese emigrating, though? I always had the impression that a lot of Schengen citizens came to Portugal but not so much the other way around, and that a low birthrate was Portugal's main demographic challenge.

Many emigrated during the 1960's, 70's to France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, Canada, USA. In the early 20th century, many emigrated to Brazil, and most recently, during the troika years, to the UK and Germany.

Many emigrants, from the last century, left Portugal because of poverty, bad living conditions and the dictatorship. During the crisis, a lot people, especially young people, left the country in search of better job opportunities.

And don't forget Luxembourg, around 15% of its population is Portuguese.

Yes, forgot about them. South Africa, Angola and Mozambique also have a lot or Portuguese emmigrants.

...why? Gilded Luxembourg I get. But Angola? Really, Portugal?

Angola has a booming economy thanks to its oil sector. It's a land of opportunity with the right skills. Mozambique also has a high growth rate.

[Walmart_shopper]

...why? Gilded Luxembourg I get. But Angola? Really, Portugal?

Angola was a Portuguese colony.

Oh okay.

[Mike88]

Exit polls:

SIC
https://twitter.com/mnmariano/status/1180921609735024641

RTP
https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1180921847363362820