Portugal's politics and elections

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is a bad idea.

Why? The alternative was a deal with BE only, which would strain relationships both on the left and with PSD.

This outcome was expected. In fact, that round of meetings with all leftwing parties that Costa held seem, IMO, quite ridiculous and a bit degrading. All had an air of theatre. PS would find it almost impossible to accommodate some of BE's demands like the revision of workers laws, minimum wage increases and spending increases, as Mário Centeno would block almost, if not all, of BE's main policy flags.

Yeah, heaven forbid a party with "Socialist" in its name actually enact pro-worker policies.

That tweet sounds about right. It seems that Costa always was a third-wayer who only made concessions to the left when that was his only road to power.

[MaxQue]

This is a bad idea.

Why? The alternative was a deal with BE only, which would strain relationships both on the left and with PSD.

This outcome was expected. In fact, that round of meetings with all leftwing parties that Costa held seem, IMO, quite ridiculous and a bit degrading. All had an air of theatre. PS would find it almost impossible to accommodate some of BE's demands like the revision of workers laws, minimum wage increases and spending increases, as Mário Centeno would block almost, if not all, of BE's main policy flags.

Why not just remove Mario Centeno?

[crals]

This is a bad idea.

Why? The alternative was a deal with BE only, which would strain relationships both on the left and with PSD.

This outcome was expected. In fact, that round of meetings with all leftwing parties that Costa held seem, IMO, quite ridiculous and a bit degrading. All had an air of theatre. PS would find it almost impossible to accommodate some of BE's demands like the revision of workers laws, minimum wage increases and spending increases, as Mário Centeno would block almost, if not all, of BE's main policy flags.

Why not just remove Mario Centeno?

He is literally the reason PS are doing so well

[crals]

This is a bad idea.

Why? The alternative was a deal with BE only, which would strain relationships both on the left and with PSD.

This outcome was expected. In fact, that round of meetings with all leftwing parties that Costa held seem, IMO, quite ridiculous and a bit degrading. All had an air of theatre. PS would find it almost impossible to accommodate some of BE's demands like the revision of workers laws, minimum wage increases and spending increases, as Mário Centeno would block almost, if not all, of BE's main policy flags.

Yeah, heaven forbid a party with "Socialist" in its name actually enact pro-worker policies.

That tweet sounds about right. It seems that Costa always was a third-wayer who only made concessions to the left when that was his only road to power.

This really doesn't change anything as PS will still rely on the left for budgets etc, and they already ignored the left whenever they wanted anyway

As for the second part, despite what delusional foreign media seemed to believe, everyone in Portugal knows that's the case

[Mike88]

More maps from the general election results. Share of vote by the 9 parties represented in Parliament by parish:

https://twitter.com/thirty1ne/status/1182731585168314368
*Click on the tweet to see all the maps.

Notes:

PS - Consistent across the whole country, but with very low shares in some rural areas in the North and Center;

PSD - A clear division between North/South. PSD gets voting shares above the national average mostly from rural areas in Braganza, Vila Real and Viseu. Note some PSD share increases in Lisbon and Porto cities, and around Porto city.

BE - Strong in urban/suburban areas. Very low shares in rural areas.

CDU - Only strong in Alentejo and Setúbal Peninsula.

CDS - Strong in rural areas, but lost a lot of ground.

PAN - A urban/suburban party mostly.

CH - Curious results. The highest shares of the vote for Chega! were in Alentejo region, although with few votes as the population is very small. Good results in the suburbs of Lisbon, mainly Loures where André Ventura ran for mayor in 2017 in the PSD lists.

IL - Like PAN, strongest in urban/suburban areas, mainly in Porto and Lisbon, and in parishes where income is higher.

Livre - Again like PAN and IL, strongest in urban/suburban areas, but, mostly concentrated in Lisbon.

[Mike88]

Political update:

Meetings between PS and leftwing parties postponed "sine die":

Meetings between the PS and BE/CDU have been postponed, and there's no data in which they could happen. The PS wanted to negotiate a government program with the leftwing parties, but they have dropped that idea and now say there are no conditions to held these meetings. Parties are only expected to meet again when the government presents the budget draft for 2020.

Also, in CDS the crisis deepens.

After the disastrous result on election night, when the CDS officially became, once again, the "taxi party", high profile after high profile members of the party are skiping the leadership. Telmo Correia, Nuno Melo and Adolfo Mesquita Nunes have refused running for the leadership, and no major moderate member is expected to run. However, it's rumored that the very right-wing leader of CDS youth wing is considering running for the leadership.

Overseas voting surpasses 130,000.

On Wednesday, overseas ballots will be counted and award the final 4 seats left in Parliament. Votes are still arriving to the Electoral Commission. Until now, 132,989 ballots have arrived, but it's still unclear if all of them will be considered valid. We'll see.

[Tender Branson]

Overseas voting surpasses 130,000.

On Wednesday, overseas ballots will be counted and award the final 4 seats left in Parliament. Votes are still arriving to the Electoral Commission. Until now, 132,989 ballots have arrived, but it's still unclear if all of them will be considered valid. We'll see.

No.

Many are postmarked with Oct. 7, are missing signatures or are damaged.

That happens here as well.

Maybe 130.000 or so will be valid.

[Mike88]

Overseas voting surpasses 130,000.

On Wednesday, overseas ballots will be counted and award the final 4 seats left in Parliament. Votes are still arriving to the Electoral Commission. Until now, 132,989 ballots have arrived, but it's still unclear if all of them will be considered valid. We'll see.

No.

Many are postmarked with Oct. 7, are missing signatures or are damaged.

That happens here as well.

Maybe 130.000 or so will be valid.

The Electoral Commission has ruled that ballots that don't have a date should be counted anyway, although the final decision will be of the vote tabulation board:

AR 2019 - Postal vote - envelopes without date of dispatch

2. The competence to deliberate on the proposed topics rests exclusively with the polling station counters and, if they consider that all or any of them are null, or, if there is a protest, the general tabulation meetings, may appeal their decisions within 24 hours to the Constitutional Court.

3. In any event, having regard to the reasons for the occurrence, in particular the material impossibility of voters being able to act to prevent it, and, moreover, the consequences of the various possible decisions, the National Election Commission is of the opinion that the ballot papers contained in envelopes which cannot determine with absolute certainty the date of dispatch (day mark of the post office of origin) should not be considered null and void.

4. It is also of the opinion that the actual date of receipt by SGMAI is irrelevant to the decision when it does not exceed the time limit provided for by law.

There were huge problems with overseas voting this time. Thousands of ballots were sent back and failed to arrive in Portugal, and in many countries, mail services are failing to send ballots to Portugal, the most shocking example seems to be Venezuela.

[bigic]

and in many countries, mail services are failing to send ballots to Portugal, the most shocking example seems to be Venezuela.

I'm not surprised at all. As there is a shortage of paper in Venezuela (due to mismanagement of the economy), they are probably recycling the ballots instead of sending them to Portugal.

[Mike88]

and in many countries, mail services are failing to send ballots to Portugal, the most shocking example seems to be Venezuela.

I'm not surprised at all. As there is a shortage of paper in Venezuela (due to mismanagement of the economy), they are probably recycling the ballots instead of sending them to Portugal.

According to Público newspaper, there was a country worse than Venezuela: South Africa. According to newspaper, the foreign office has been working day and night to pressure South Africa authorities to speed up ballot mailling in South Africa, but with no results as zero ballots have been received from South Africa because the mail services, there, have collapsed. More than 32,000 ballots were sent to South Africa, but the secretary of elections says that probably no ballot will be counted from South Africa. He added that, until 16:00h tomorrow, around 142,000 ballots will be counted.

[Mike88]

António Costa unveils his new cabinet:

Prime Minister - António Costa;
Minister of State and Foreign Affairs - Augusto Santos Silva;
Minister of State and Finance - Mário Centeno;
Minister of State, Economy and Digital Transition - Pedro Siza Vieira;
Minister of State and Presidency - Mariana Vieira da Silva;
Minister of National Defense - João Gomes Cravinho;
Minister of Internal Affairs - Eduardo Cabrita;
Minister of Justice - Francisca Van Dunem;
Minister of State Modernization and Public Administration - Alexandra Leitão; (new)
Minister of Planning - Nelson de Souza;
Minister of Culture - Graça Fonseca;
Minister of Science, Technology and Higher Education - Manuel Heitor;
Minister of Education - Tiago Brandão Rodrigues;
Minister of Labor, Solidarity and Social Security - Ana Mendes Godinho; (new)
Minister of Health - Marta Temido;
Minister of Environment and Climate Action - João Pedro Matos Fernandes;
Minister of Infrastructure and Housing - Pedro Nuno Santos;
Minister for Territorial Cohesion - Ana Abrunhosa; (new)
Minister of Agriculture - Maria do Céu Albuquerque; (new)
Minister of the Sea Ricardo Serrão Santos; (new)

State Secretary for Parliamentary Affairs - Duarte Cordeiro;
Assistant Secretary of State of the Prime Minister - Tiago Antunes;
Secretary of State of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers - André Moz Caldas; (new)

I'm quite surprised he didn't sacked the most unpopular ministers in his government, the Health and Education ministers.

[Mike88]

Update on Madeira and Azores regional politics.

Madeira: New PSD/CDS government is sworn in.
https://twitter.com/funchalnoticias/status/1184150149930598407

The 1st coalition government in Madeira was sworn in, today. The new speaker of the regional parliament is José Manuel Rodrigues, (CDS), a controversial figure as many PSD and CDS members didn't want him as speaker, nor a CDS figure. He was elected with 24 votes in favour, 4 against and 19 blank votes.

Azores: PSD leader Alexandre Gaudêncio resigns.
https://twitter.com/noticiaaominuto/status/1184151960938831878

The leader of the PSD-Azores, Alexandre Gaudêncio, has resigned from the leadership and has called for new leadership elections. Elected a year ago, Gaudêncio is currently being investigated for corruption. The PSD results in Azores may also had an influence, as the PSD won 30.2% of the votes, against the 40.1% of the PS. He didn't disclose if he will run for re-election. Azores holds regional elections a year from now, October 2020.

[Mike88]

Overseas ballots are being counted as we speak.

https://twitter.com/JNegocios/status/1184517808497008640
Ballot counting in Lisbon.

The counting is going on in a pavilion in Lisbon where around 500 people are registering and counting the ballots. A total of 158,000 ballots arrived until 16:00, today, and now election workers are analyzing if they are invalid or not.

Some election workers are reporting that electricity bills and bank checks were found in the envelopes alongside the ballots.

Results are expected to be released around 22:30h.

[Mike88]

1st results from overseas voting:

Germany, Hamburg:

23.6% PS
14.6% PSD
  5.4% BE
  4.4% PAN
  3.5% CDU
  1.8% CDS
  1.4% Livre
  4.8% Others
40.7% Blank/Invalid

Yikes!!

[bigic]

Why so many invalid votes?

[Mike88]

Why so many invalid votes?

Probably ballots with no date, or wrong date, and missing some documents that were required. The ballots are counted, but are classified as invalid. I expect this number to hold on in other countries.

[Mike88]

3 consulates in, all from Europe. Overall, only 11% counted:

31.5% PS
18.4% PSD
  5.2% PAN
  4.9% BE
  2.6% CDS
  2.4% CDU
  1.1% MPT
  1.0% Livre
  0.9% PCTP
  0.9% PURP
  0.8% CH
  4.1% Others
26.3% Blank/Invalid

12.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

PSD has won the Outside Europe district, but loses one seat:

33.4% PSD, 1 (-1)
20.2% PS, 1 (+1)
  4.7% PAN
  4.3% CDS
  3.5% PDR
  2.8% BE
  2.5% IL
  2.1% PNR
  1.2% Alliance
  1.0% CDU
  6.4% Others
18.0% Blank/Invalid

8.8% Turnout

Europe district has still 2 consulates to be counted, but most likely will be PS 1; PSD 1:

28.9% PS
18.8% PSD
  5.4% BE
  4.8% PAN
  3.0% CDS
  2.4% CDU
  1.1% PCTP
  1.0% MPT
  0.9% Livre
  0.9% CH
  0.7% PNR
  4.6% Others
27.5% Blank/Invalid
 
12.1% Turnout

[Mike88]

Europe district is now final:

29.1% PS, 1 (nc)
18.8% PSD, 1 (nc)
  5.7% BE
  4.9% PAN
  3.0% CDS
  2.5% CDU
  1.2% PCTP
  1.1% Livre
  0.9% MPT
  0.9% CH
  0.8% IL
  5.0% Others
26.3% Blank/Invalid

12.1% Turnout

The final results of the 2019 general elections are the following:

36.3% PS (+4.0), 108 seats (+22)
27.8% PSD, 79 (-10)
  9.5% BE (-0.7), 19 (nc)
  6.3% CDU (-2.0), 12 (-5)
  4.2% CDS, 5 (-13)
  3.3% PAN (+1.9), 4 (+3)
  1.3% CH (new), 1
  1.3% IL (new), 1
  1.1% Livre (+0.4), 1 (+1)
  0.8% Alliance (new), 0
  0.7% PCTP (-0.4), 0
  0.7% RIR (new), 0
  0.3% PNR (-0.2), 0
  0.3% MPT (-0.1), 0
  0.2% NC (-0.2), 0
  0.2% PDR (-0.9), 0
  0.2% PURP (-0.1), 0
  0.2% JPP (-0.1), 0
  0.2% PPM (-0.1), 0
  0.2% PTP (+0.2), 0
  0.1% MAS (new), 0
  4.9% Blank/Invalid (+1.1)

48.6% Turnout (-7.3)

[VPH]

PNR got 2% outside of Europe wow

[Mike88]

PNR got 2% outside of Europe wow

Yeah, quite a showing by PNR, They only got 0.6% in 2015, although it's not accurate to compare the 2015 results with the 2019 ones in the overseas results. I'm more surprised that Marinho Pinto's PDR has more supporters outside Portugal than inside. And the system for overseas votes has to change. It's ridiculous that 23% of the ballots are ruled invalid and many ballots from many countries failed to arrive in Portugal due to bad mail services in each country. I never understood why overseas ballots need to be sent to Portugal, unlike EU or Presidential elections. It would be much more practical to count the votes in each embassy or consulate.

[Mike88]

Some thoughts about the 2019 general election results:

PS - Lowest share of the vote for a re-elected incumbent government in democracy. The previous low was José Socrates 36.6% in 2009. Also, the second lowest number of votes for a 1st party, only beaten by the 1985 PSD result. Nonetheless, the PS sees its number of MPs rise from 86 to 108 and is 8 seats short of a majority and is in a very domineering position.

PSD - Worst share of the vote since 1983, but, in terms of seats, only the worst result since 2005, when they got 75 seats. Now, who will lead the party? Rio or Montenegro?

BE - Solidified their position as the 3rd major party in Portugal. In the last elections, including this one, the party seems to have stationed at around 10% of the votes.

CDU - The worst result ever in their history, 6.3%. In terms of seats, CDU mathes their previous low point, in 2002, of 12 seats. CDU is losing ground in every single election since 2016. The trend is likely to continue.

CDS - Is back to the times when the party was known as the "taxi party", because all of their MPs would fit in a car. It was the worst result ever for CDS, in terms of share of the vote, and they lost ground everywhere, including in their strongholds. Who will be the next leader is a big, big question.

PAN - With a caucus of its own, PAN now has more power than ever. It will be interesting to see how the party performs during this Parliament.

CH - The first time, since the 1974 revolution, that a rightwing/far-right party elects an MP to Parliament. Ventura is a controversial figure as many accuse him of using Benfica as a way to start his political campaign. He seems to be also eating up some of CDS base of support.

IL - The sole MP isn't their leader, which could create problems in the future, we'll see. Like CH, IL seems also to be gaining at CDS expense.

LIVRE - How will they perform? Like IL, their leader isn't the MP elected. Could we see friction between Joacine and Rui Tavares in the future?

Alliance - Santana Lopes career is over. Just 0.77% for a party of a former Prime Minister, mayor of Lisbon and PSD leader, is a disaster. But, he seems to want to go on and on.

Turnout - The lowest turnout ever in a general election, both in turnout rate and number of ballots cast. The almost 11 million registered voters don't help, but people seem to be very disappointed and angry with the political class, and insted of supporting an anti-system party or a change/hope party, a very big share of voters prefers to don't even care about politics.

Also, good info about the new Parliament by Correio da Manhã newspaper:

https://www.cmjornal.pt/especial-eleicoes

[Mike88]

More cool maps from the 2019 general elections:

Vote comparison between the 9 parties represented in Parliament by parish.
https://twitter.com/thirty1ne/status/1184866103828328448

Party winner by parish and second/third/fourth/fifth most voted party by parish.
https://twitter.com/thirty1ne/status/1184545259407237123

*Click on the tweets to see all the maps.

[xelas81]

More cool maps from the 2019 general elections:


*Click on the tweets to see all the maps.

LOL there are parts of the country where PSD came 4th behind PS, CDU and BE.

[Mike88]

More cool maps from the 2019 general elections:


*Click on the tweets to see all the maps.

LOL there are parts of the country where PSD came 4th behind PS, CDU and BE.

In Alentejo is quite common to PSD perform really badly. Even in elections where they are the winners, nationally, they can poll in 4th place in some parishes in the Alentejo region. But because Alentejo is a region with low population, this doesn't affect the national vote share of the party. In Setúbal Peninsula, PSD normally doesn't poll well either, particularly in Barreiro and Moita cities, where a lot of blue-collar workers vote. Curiously, many parishes with blue-collar workers in the North and Center have the opposite trend, as the PSD performs quite well there.