Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

I'm back. Well, what an election.

PSD has a result that, IMO, is not that bad. PS, has a result bellow expectations. CDS, what a disaster. The smaller parties, well, what a surprise.

[Mike88]

Rui Rio is about to speak.

[bigic]

I'm back. Well, what an election.

PSD has a result that, IMO, is not that bad. PS, has a result bellow expectations. CDS, what a disaster. The smaller parties, well, what a surprise.

Consolidation of right-leaning voters behind PSD?

[bigic]

Livre overtook Chega in Lisbon. All other electoral districts are counted, just 2 in Lisbon and 3 in Setubal left.

[Mike88]

I'm back. Well, what an election.

PSD has a result that, IMO, is not that bad. PS, has a result bellow expectations. CDS, what a disaster. The smaller parties, well, what a surprise.

Consolidation of right-leaning voters behind PSD?

PSD voters that decided to turnout rather than to stay home.

[Rikschard]

Porto results:

36.7 PS, 17
31.2 PSD, 15
10.1 BE, 4
  4.8 CDU, 2
  3.5 PAN, 1
  3.3 CDS, 1
  1.5 IL
  1.1 RIR
  1.0 Livre

[Mike88]

Porto results:

36.7 PS, 17
31.2 PSD, 14
10.1 BE, 4
  4.8 CDU, 2
  3.5 PAN, 1
  3.3 CDS, 1
  1.5 IL
  1.1 RIR
  1.0 Livre

PSD 15 seats, not 14

Rui Rio speach was literally revenge. He basically said the media failed on the PSD prospects and attacked those that, for personal interests, tried to damage the PSD. He said that this is a good result, in the current circumstances.

[Rikschard]

Porto results:

36.7 PS, 17
31.2 PSD, 14
10.1 BE, 4
  4.8 CDU, 2
  3.5 PAN, 1
  3.3 CDS, 1
  1.5 IL
  1.1 RIR
  1.0 Livre

PSD 15 seats, not 14

Rui Rio speach was literally revenge. He basically said the media failed on the PSD prospects and attacked those that, for personal interests, tried to damage the PSD. He said that this is a good result, in the current circumstances.

Yup my mistake. Rui Rio himself said in his speech that he had risen from to 15.

[Mike88]

António Costa speaking.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like PS will end up with 105-106 seats. Not enough to form a majority with PAN but a strong enough plurality that it shouldn't be too hard to cobble something together with BE if Costa is so inclined.

[Rikschard]

Now Setúbal:

38.6 PS, 9
15.8 CDU, 3
14.4 PSD, 3
12.1 BE, 2
  4.4 PAN, 1
  3.0 CDS
  1.9 Chega
  1.2 Livre
  1.1 IL

[crals]

Chega and Livre are entering the parliament. A sad day for Portugal, no longer one of the few Western countries without the populist right in parliament.

[Mike88]

Chega and Livre are entering the parliament. A sad day for Portugal, no longer one of the few Western countries without the populist right in parliament.

André Ventura... a man who campaign against corruption, but defends with everything Benfica. Ridiculous.

[Rikschard]

It's done:

Lisbon

36.7 PS, 20
22.6 PSD, 12
  9.7 BE, 5
  7.8 CDU, 4
  4.4 PAN, 2
  4.4 CDS, 2
  2.5 IL, 1
  2.1 Livre, 1
  2.0 Chega, 1

TOTAL

36.7 PS, 106
27.9 PSD, 77
  9.7 BE, 19
  6.5 CDU, 12
  4.3 CDS, 5
  3.3 PAN, 4
  1.3 Chega, 1
  1.3 IL, 1
  1.1 Livre, 1
  0.8 Aliança
  0.7 RIR
  0.7 PCTP/MRPP
  0.3 PNR
  0.2 MPT
  0.2 NC
  0.2 PURP
  0.2 JPP
  0.2 PDR
  0.2 PPM
  0.2 PTP
  0.1 MAS

CDU and CDS get their worst result ever.

[crals]

Chega and Livre are entering the parliament. A sad day for Portugal, no longer one of the few Western countries without the populist right in parliament.

André Ventura... a man who campaign against corruption, but defends with everything Benfica. Ridiculous.

Hopefully his mask will fall soon enough

[Mike88]

The count is over: 100% in.

36.7% PS (+4.3), 106 seats (+21)
27.9% PSD, 77 (-11)
  9.7% BE (-0.5), 19 (nc)
  6.5% CDU (-1.7), 12 (-5)
  4.3% CDS, 5 (-13)
  3.3% PAN (+2.9), 4 (+3)
  1.3% CH (new), 1
  1.3% Livre (+0.6), 1 (+1)
  1.1% IL (new), 1
  0.8% Alliance (new), 0
  0.7% RIR (new), 0
  0.7% PCTP (-0.4), 0
  0.3% PNR (-0.2), 0
  0.2% MPT (-0.2), 0
  0.2% NC (-0.2), 0
  0.2% PURP (-0.1), 0
  0.2% JPP (-0.1), 0
  0.2% PDR (-0.9), 0
  0.2% PPM (-0.1), 0
  0.2% PTP (+0.2), 0
  0.1% MAS (new), 0
  4.3% Blank/Invalid

54.5% Turnout (-2.5)

[Mike88]

Overall turnout will probably fall bellow 50% when the overseas votes are counted. Yikes.

Also, some notes:

PS results are basically that same of 2009: 36.7 vs 36.6, although this time, and because of the vote fragmentation between smaller parties, the number of PS seats is up 10, compared with 2009, and 21 compared with 2015.

PSD results were not that bad, IMO, they have hold on to their bastions, and could win 79/80 seats, when all is counted. However, both PS and PSD have achieved a low number of votes, as it's the first time, since 1985, that none of the two major parties wins more than 2 million votes.

BE has a bittersweet result. It didn't increase their share of vote, and hold on to their 19 seats. We'll see how they will talk with the PS.

CDU, very bad result in terms of vote share, and have just 12 seats. Not in very powerfull position.

CDS, just one word, disaster. CDS was the clear victim of the fragmentation of smaller parties on the right.

PAN, increased, but not that much. In fact, some polls gave PAN well above 4%.

The smaller parties: Livre, CH and IL. Livre was a surprise, the new Livre MP will be the first black MP in Parliament. IL, another surprise, we'll see how they perform. CH, well, a sad surprise.

Santana Lopes Alliance another disaster. Santana should quite and merge with PSD.

[Mike88]

Oh, and in my hometown, Póvoa de Varzim, once again, PSD victory:

42.4% PSD
28.2% PS
  8.3% BE
  6.0% CDS
  3.0% CDU
  2.7% PAN
  1.3% IL
  0.8% Livre
  0.7% CH
  0.5% RIR
  0.4% Alliance
  1.7% Others
  4.1% Blank/Invalid

52.2% Turnout (-1.1)

[crals]

Is Joacine really the first black MP? What about Hélder Amaral (CDS) and Nilza de Sena (PSD)?

[Mike88]

Is Joacine really the first black MP? What about Hélder Amaral (CDS) and Nilza de Sena (PSD)?

Yeah, I forgot about them. But, I remember Rui Tavares saying on TV to elect "the first back MP". I will research that.

[mileslunn]

Does anyone have a site link that gives breakdown by municipality and/or region.  Also right wing vote total seems very low.  Portugal might be one of the few if not only European country where right wing vote is less than what it is in Canada in our election in 15 days and I thought we were one of the only countries on earth where right often struggles to get 1/3 support.

[Mike88]

Does anyone have a site link that gives breakdown by municipality and/or region.  Also right wing vote total seems very low.  Portugal might be one of the few if not only European country where right wing vote is less than what it is in Canada in our election in 15 days and I thought we were one of the only countries on earth where right often struggles to get 1/3 support.

This is the official election website: https://www.legislativas2019.mai.gov.pt/territorio-nacional.html#%00

But, this one, from Observador newspaper in very good: https://observador.pt/interativo/veja-os-resultados-das-eleicoes-ao-segundo/#/

The total rightwing vote is 36.3%, adding up all of the smaller rightwing parties. The election had a very low turnout rate. In the end, it could drop to 49%. The PSD hold on to their electorate, as did the PS. The huge loser was CDS, as they were decimated. Some of their votes went to smaller parties, CH and IL, but probably many of CDS traditional voters stayed home.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it does look like PS gains were concentrated in the Northern coastal area, while it stagnated more in the South and inland. That's interesting because losses for the two left parties were also concentrated in the South (which makes sense since that's where they win most of their votes in the first place). So it seems that the Left as a whole might be stable or even down in the South but significantly up in the North.

[kaoras]

Does anyone have a site link that gives breakdown by municipality and/or region.  Also right wing vote total seems very low.  Portugal might be one of the few if not only European country where right wing vote is less than what it is in Canada in our election in 15 days and I thought we were one of the only countries on earth where right often struggles to get 1/3 support.

There are plenty of (small) countries where the right is basically non-existent. On top of my mind Nepal, Guyana and Suriname.

[DL]

What is the story behind the centre right EPP affiliated party in Portugal being called the Social Democratic Party?