Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

New Pitagórica tracking poll:

38.3% PS (+1.9)
26.8% PSD (-0.2)
10.6% BE (nc)
  5.3% CDU (-1.6)
  4.4% CDS (nc)
  3.3% PAN (+0.3)
  1.3% IL (-0.5)
  1.1% Livre (+0.1)
  0.7% CH (nc)
  0.7% Alliance (+0.2)
  7.5% Others/Invalid (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 22 and 25 September 2019. Polled 600 on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

About the Tancos scandal, Costa responded to Rio, accusing him of damaging the dignity of the electoral campaign and that he doesn't recognize any moral in Rio to make judgments on his political actions.

Things are getting nasty...

[Farmlands]

Electoral compass for the 2019 general elections:

https://www.bussolapolitica.org/

Enjoy!

Got closest to PAN. Too much of a one issue party for me though, helping the environment won't solve the rising rent prices many people have to deal with, for example. About the same distance from BE and PS, which coincidentally, are the two parties which I'm undecided between for the next election.

[Mike88]

Electoral compass for the 2019 general elections:

https://www.bussolapolitica.org/

Enjoy!

Got closest to PAN. Too much of a one issue party for me though, helping the environment won't solve the rising rent prices many people have to deal with, for example. About the same distance from BE and PS, which coincidentally, are the two parties which I'm undecided between for the next election.

Mine got closest to the PS... Yikes

[Mike88]

Madeira government negotiations: PSD/CDS start meetings to form a government.

PSD and CDS Madeira have started negotiations to form a majority government. The two sides meet yesterday, Wednesday, in Funchal and started talks to form a common governmental program. Both parties, in the end, held a joint press conference saying that the meeting went well. However, some members of CDS-M aren't quite on board with this, José Manuel Rodrigues, former CDS-M leader, is a staunch anti-PSD politician and some say that he could create problems in the negotiations process.

Parties were received today by the republic representative, in Funchal, and PSD and CDS both confirmed negotiations between both and PS confirmed they will sit in the opposition benchs against the PSD/CDS government.

[crals]

Electoral compass for the 2019 general elections:

https://www.bussolapolitica.org/

Enjoy!

Got closest to PAN. Too much of a one issue party for me though, helping the environment won't solve the rising rent prices many people have to deal with, for example. About the same distance from BE and PS, which coincidentally, are the two parties which I'm undecided between for the next election.

I got PAN as well. Wouldn't mind voting for them, even though their policies are often naive and self-contradicting. They've contributed a lot to making the environment a major topic in Portugal with only one MP. But they have no chance of electing a MP from my constituency.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JE newspaper:

Vote share %:

37.4% PS (-1.0)
25.2% PSD (+4.6)
11.0% BE (+0.8 )
  6.8% CDU (+1.4)
  5.1% CDS (+0.5)
  3.6% PAN (-1.3)
  1.6% Livre (new)
  1.5% CH (new)
  1.2% IL (new)
  5.4% Others/Invalid (-7.7)
  1.2% Undecided (-1.6)

Poll conducted between 21 and 25 September 2019.

[VPH]

Aximage poll for JE newspaper:

Vote share %:

37.4% PS (-1.0)
25.2% PSD (+4.6)
11.0% BE (+0.8 )
  6.8% CDU (+1.4)
  5.1% CDS (+0.5)
  3.6% PAN (-1.3)
  1.6% Livre (new)
  1.5% CH (new)
  1.2% IL (new)
  5.4% Others/Invalid (-7.7)
  1.2% Undecided (-1.6)

Poll conducted between 21 and 25 September 2019.

That's pretty high for Chega.

[Mike88]

That's pretty high for Chega.

Yeah... but I don't know if they will get that. I may be wrong, but look what happened in Madeira, yes there was a huge concentration of votes in the two main parties, but of the smaller parties only Tino de Rans RIR and PURP had some good results. Alliance and CH polled just 0.5%... And polling predicted a good result for smaller parties.

Also regarding that Aximage poll:

Preferred PM:

46.8% António Costa (-1.2)
24.3% Rui Rio (+4.8 )

[Mike88]

New Pitagórica tracking poll:

37.8% PS (-0.5)
26.6% PSD (-0.2)
10.1% BE (-0.5)
  5.1% CDU (-0.2)
  4.0% CDS (-0.4)
  3.6% PAN (+0.3)
  1.6% IL (+0.3)
  1.1% Livre (nc)
  1.1% CH (+0.4)
  0.7% Alliance (nc)
  8.3% Others/Invalid (+0.8 )

Poll conducted between 23 and 26 September 2019. Polled 600 voters on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

2019 general election voting update:

Early voting: 56,287 voters have registered to vote early. The vote will occur this Sunday, 29 September.

Also, overseas voting seems to be increasing as, until now, more than 35,033 ballots have reached the Electoral Commission. However, several voting problems continue to occur, with ballots being returned, almost 39,000, and several voters saying they have difficulty mailing in the ballots.

Military and security forces have also started voting. According to RTP, 1,200 military and service forces stationed outside Portugal have already voted.

[Mike88]

2019 election campaign:

António Costa has suspended his campaign after being rushed to hospital due to muscular pains. According to the press, he had difficulty for some days now, and last night had real trouble finishing a rally in Viana do Castelo. It's expected that he will return to the campaign trail tomorrow.

Also, the Tancos scandal continues. PSD, and also CDS, are not letting it go away, and the media is reporting today that the PS, and Costa, believe in a conspiracy forged between the DA office and the Presidential Palace to damage the PS image and election prospects. Expresso newspaper even reports that the PS believes the former attorney-general, Joana Marques Vidal, is also plotting against the PS.

[Mike88]

2019 election campaign: TV broadcasts.

PS - Socialist Party

PSD - Social Democratic Party

BE - Left Bloc

CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition

PAN - People-Animals-Nature

L - Livre

IL - Liberal Initiative

[Mike88]

New Pitagórica tracking poll:

37.1% PS (-0.7)
26.4% PSD (-0.2)
10.4% BE (+0.3)
  6.4% CDU (+1.3)
  3.6% CDS (-0.4)
  3.1% PAN (-0.5)
  2.0% IL (+0.4)
  1.3% Livre (+0.2)
  1.1% CH (nc)
  0.7% Alliance (nc)
  7.8% Others/Invalid (-0.5)

Poll conducted between 24 and 27 September 2019. Polled 600 voters on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Early voting day: More than 56,000 voters are registered to vote today.

[Mike88]

2019 election campaign: More TV election broadcasts.

PNR - National Renovator Party

PTP - Portuguese Labour Party

RIR - React, Include, Recycle

[Mike88]

New Pitagórica tracking poll:

37.7% PS (+0.6)
27.7% PSD (+1.3)
10.0% BE (-0.4)
  6.3% CDU (-0.1)
  4.4% CDS (+0.8 )
  3.1% PAN (nc)
  1.3% Livre (nc)
  1.1% IL (-0.9)
  1.1% CH (nc)
  0.7% Alliance (nc)
  6.8% Others/Invalid (-1.0)

Poll conducted between 25 and 28 September 2019. Polled 600 on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[Zanas]

What would you say is CDU's floor ? They seem to be headed towards their worst result ever, but I guess it depends on turnout.

[Mike88]

What would you say is CDU's floor ? They seem to be headed towards their worst result ever, but I guess it depends on turnout.

They are right now at their floor. The worst they've got in a general election was 6.9% in 2002. Polls say they could fall bellow that. But it literally depends on turnout. PCP voters were always known for being very active electorally, but since the 2015 PS-BE-CDU agreement, something changed in that electorate. The first sign was the 2016 presidential election, where the PCP candidate only got 4%, then in the 2017 local election the PCP lost 10 cities, and many strongholds and in the EP elections this year, they barely hold on to 2 seats. The PCP electorate is deeply demoralized and not very excited over the last 4 years. Not to mention that the PCP campaign has been quite low profile, and nothing comparable til date.

We've had few polls this cycle, I don't know why. The only two available, Aximage and Pitagórica, show a growing bi-polarization between PS and PSD, with the BE in a strong third, and they everyone else bellow 7%. We'll see what the bunch of polls that will come out in the next few days say.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll - 30 September:

35.3% PS (-2.4)
28.9% PSD (+1.2)
  9.1% BE (-0.9)
  7.8% CDU (+1.5)
  4.5% CDS (+0.1)
  3.2% PAN (+0.1)
  1.5% Livre (+0.2)
  1.3% IL (+0.2)
  1.1% CH (nc)
  0.6% Alliance (-0.1)
  6.7% Others/Invalid (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 26 and 29 September 2019. Polled 600 on a 4 day rolling. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

After the Tancos scandal damaged the PS, now the PSD has a scandal of its own: Some PSD MPs say their signatures were used to sent a bill to the Constitutional Court without their permission.

After Tancos, another controversy. This time in the PSD. According to TSF radio, some PSD MPs were upset to find that their signatures were used to sent a bill to the Constitutional Court without their permission. The bill in question was the re-nacionalization of the Douro House, a wine corporation that was founded by Salazar to represent the needs of winegrowers in the Douro region, that was privatized by the PSD/CDS government in 2014. The PSD caucus leader, Fernando Negrão, acknowledge the situation and said he will talk to every single MP to solve the situation.

This controversy could hit hard on the PSD. The PS will probably use it. The race could be changing once again. If the PSD was rising by the day, now they could start to fall. We'll see.

[Farmlands]

This doesn't seem to have the makings of a major scandal to me, unlike Tancos. Now that seems to be hurting PS a lot and will probably benefit the smaller parties, given the D'Hondt method. Curious to see how a more diverse parliament would function and be covered by the media.

[crals]

The difference between PSD and PS in the polls has gone from over 23% less than a month ago to less than 7% now. Just like last time PS is losing so much ground just before the election. Rio might stay on as PSD leader after all.

[Mike88]

This doesn't seem to have the makings of a major scandal to me, unlike Tancos. Now that seems to be hurting PS a lot and will probably benefit the smaller parties, given the D'Hondt method. Curious to see how a more diverse parliament would function and be covered by the media.

Indeed this story seems to be passing under the radar, major news outlets aren't reporting it, until now. We'll see. The Tancos scandal is hurting the PS, no doubt, and Costa isn't helping to dissipate any doubts. About the smaller parties, I'm still skeptical. Pitagórica and Aximage say Livre and IL are the most likely to win seats, but I don't know. We need more polling from other firms. Don't know why so few are making polls this year. Maybe money problems.

The difference between PSD and PS in the polls has gone from over 23% less than a month ago to less than 7% now. Just like last time PS is losing so much ground just before the election. Rio might stay on as PSD leader after all.

The campaign, so far, is going really well for Rio. Like in 2015, Costa isn't good at campaigning. IMO, there's something that happens when he starts campaigning, maybe a Hillary effect. But, he's not comfortable as he was 4 weeks ago. We'll see what happens on October 6. As a PSD voter, I'm not very hopefull, but still.

Also, the 15 smaller party leaders debate (!!!) just ended on RTP1. The debate was quite entertaining, but IMO, only two candidates stood out positively: Livre and IL. The rest was more funny than serious. André Ventura entered in a screaming match with the leader of PURP, the pensioners party; Tino de Rans, dear God, said his party is a 360 degres party; Santana Lopes seems and looks like he's almost 80, what happened to him? Another funny moment was when the PPM leader showed his manifesto and in the cover the year 2015 was crossed out, and below it, and handwritten, was the year 2019. Social media is having a lot of fun:
https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1178797375307091968

With so many cameras, it's getting easier to hold the Champions League final than a RTP debate

[bigic]

Another funny moment was when the PPM leader showed his manifesto and in the cover the year 2015 was crossed out, and below it, and handwritten, was the year 2019. Social media is having a lot of fun:

Did he say "At least our policies are consistent" or something similar?

[Mike88]

Another funny moment was when the PPM leader showed his manifesto and in the cover the year 2015 was crossed out, and below it, and handwritten, was the year 2019. Social media is having a lot of fun:

Did he say "At least our policies are consistent" or something similar?

No, he just showed the manifesto and said "our manifesto for this campaign".