Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

PS starts designing their electoral manifesto for the fall general elections:

The PS will start, this Saturday, the process of writing and designing their electoral manifesto for the October 6th general election. The party will hold, until July, several thematic conventions to discuss policies that will be introduced, or not, in the manifesto. Some newspapers are already reporting some final policies. One of them is the end of a rule, in public employees hiring, in which for every two employees that leave, only one enters. The PS wants to scrap this rule. Other policies, like regionalization, will not be on the manifesto, it seems, but others like wage increase of senior public technicians will be on the manifesto, and Costa, in an interview to Expresso newspaper, promises more social benefits to reduce inequality and more tools to fight corruption.

Expresso newspaper also asked the PS team that is managing the manifesto, if it will be more centrist or leftwing, in which the PS responded: "It will be for all the Portuguese".

[Mike88]

In the last few months, I've been posting polls in the Individual Politics forum about all general elections held in Portugal since 1975. Every poll has a detail background summary and every poll ended with a comparison between the Atlas result and the real election results. The elections are the following:

Portuguese elections 1975
Portuguese elections 1976
Portuguese elections 1979
Portuguese elections 1980
Portuguese elections 1983
Portuguese elections 1985
Portuguese elections 1987
Portuguese elections 1991
Portuguese elections 1995
Portuguese elections 1999
Portuguese elections 2002
Portuguese elections 2005
Portuguese elections 2009
Portuguese elections 2011
Portuguese elections 2015

Hope this gives more insight into Portuguese politics and elections. Enjoy.

[Mike88]

Political update:

We, the Citizens! (NC) wants to form a coalition with Pedro Santana Lopes Alliance (A). NC approved a coalition invitation to the Alliance, saying that "the emerging parties need to unite to improve the quality of life of all Portuguese", and to fight "the rotation between PS and PSD." The invitation will also be given to other smaller parties. Alliance says they are still examining the NC' proposal. Both parties won a combined total of 2.9% in the EP elections.

In the Basta! (Enough!) coalition, cracks are starting to appear. The right-wing coalition, that polled poorly in the EP elections, just 1.5%, has lost a member as Democracy21, a center-right movement, has abandoned the coalition because of disagreements about abortion policies. PPV/CDC, one of the parties in the coalition, wanted to persue policies penalizing abortion. Nonetheless, the coalition seems to be dead, as PPM and PPV/CDC will also abandon, in short time, the coalition. Adding to this, André Ventura, it seems, will hold meetings with Vox and Liga party members in the next few weeks.

Also, today, the media is almost decreeing the dead of the PS-BE-CDU agreement. The new basic healthcare law failed to pass in Parliament, as the PS reached no deal with BE/CDU, and both BE and CDU joined PSD and CDS in order to struck down the PS bill. During the debate in Parliament, Costa and Catarina Martins, BE leader, exchanged heated words, with Costa accusing Martins of killing the new healthcare bill and that the full blame is on her. Martins, on the other hand, accused Costa of aligning with the PSD on many policies, especially labour reform.

[bigic]

Adding to this, André Ventura, it seems, will hold meetings with Vox and Liga party members in the next few weeks.

These two names seem oddly familiar... 🤔

[Mike88]

New healthcare basic law: PS and PSD start negotiations to form a broad law.

After the PS failed to gain support from the BE and CDU to approve their version of the new basic healthcare law, the Socialists are now talking with the Social Democrats. The PSD, by the voice of Rui Rio, is willing to analyse the PS draft and will, likely, present a list of demands to the PS, which are the maintenance of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) in the NHS, and other demands from the PSD own healthcare law. The PS, on their part, are willing to approve some PSD policies, that they voted against a few months ago.

[Mike88]

Adding to this, André Ventura, it seems, will hold meetings with Vox and Liga party members in the next few weeks.

These two names seem oddly familiar... 🤔

He has to gain some support somewhere... even if it is outside Portugal.

[bigic]

Adding to this, André Ventura, it seems, will hold meetings with Vox and Liga party members in the next few weeks.

These two names seem oddly familiar... 🤔

He has to gain some support somewhere... even if it is outside Portugal.

I thought you meant that the parties with these names exist in Portugal, especially because you misspelled "Lega"? Thanks for clarification.

[Antonio the Sixth]

New healthcare basic law: PS and PSD start negotiations to form a broad law.

After the PS failed to gain support from the BE and CDU to approve their version of the new basic healthcare law, the Socialists are now talking with the Social Democrats. The PSD, by the voice of Rui Rio, is willing to analyse the PS draft and will, likely, present a list of demands to the PS, which are the maintenance of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) in the NHS, and other demands from the PSD own healthcare law. The PS, on their part, are willing to approve some PSD policies, that they voted against a few months ago.

Would the bill as a whole push Portuguese healthcare in a more socialized or market-based direction overall?

[Mike88]

Adding to this, André Ventura, it seems, will hold meetings with Vox and Liga party members in the next few weeks.

These two names seem oddly familiar... 🤔

He has to gain some support somewhere... even if it is outside Portugal.

I thought you meant that the parties with these names exist in Portugal, especially because you misspelled "Lega"? Thanks for clarification.

Oh. Sorry about the misspelled. Lega in Portuguese is "Liga", so that's my error. In reality, yes, it seems that Ventura will meet with the Spanish Vox and the Italian Lega.

[Mike88]

New healthcare basic law: PS and PSD start negotiations to form a broad law.

After the PS failed to gain support from the BE and CDU to approve their version of the new basic healthcare law, the Socialists are now talking with the Social Democrats. The PSD, by the voice of Rui Rio, is willing to analyse the PS draft and will, likely, present a list of demands to the PS, which are the maintenance of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) in the NHS, and other demands from the PSD own healthcare law. The PS, on their part, are willing to approve some PSD policies, that they voted against a few months ago.

Would the bill as a whole push Portuguese healthcare in a more socialized or market-based direction overall?

It's still unclear what will come out of this bill, but the debate has become deeply ideological with the leftwing, particularly BE, and some leftwing parts of the PS, pushing for the limitation or even ban of PPPs in the NHS. PSD and CDS are totally against this, and the government tried to form a bill that could appeal to the left and right. It didn't happen. PS pissed off the right with some talk about the limitations of PPPs, and the Health minister's words also didn't help. Then, Costa stooped the plans of his health minister and slowly started to move the bill more to the center ground, which, this time, started to piss off the left. The PS, and also the government's bill, was a mix between left and right, not banning PPPs but using them when the system needed. Well, the left and the right voted against and the bill failed.

Now, PS and PSD are trying to reach some kind of deal. PSD defends a public NHS, but wants much more private and social initiatives in the system, and that Public Hospitals should be run in a much more market-based way. The PS is in wobbly position, in my opinion, as it was the party that created PPPs and now finds itself in this position of analyzing the healthcare bill from its main rival, which the left labels as "the privatization of the NHS".

Like I said above, the discussion is more ideological than practical. I don't think no one believes the NHS would survive, in its current system, without the help of the private sector. The situation of the NHS is very precarious right now, and this may be creating an ideological battle between left and right about what should be the NHS in Portugal. The huge rise in health insurances in the last few years is a symptom of the current situation of the NHS, which PS and PSD have huge blame.

[Mike88]

MPs lists for the fall general election start to shake the main parties, especially the PSD:

The lists of MPs, by the all the different parties, for the October 6th general election are starting to br discussed and will be approved in the next few weeks. The major parties are seeing high profile names announcing they don't want to be part of their respective parties lists, with the PSD having the highest number of names announcing their retirement. Many of them were close to Passos Coelho leadership, some of the people leaving the PSD caucus in the next Parliament:

- Paula Teixeira da Cruz, former Justice minister (2011-15);
- Sergio Azevedo, former deputy caucus leader (2015-18), currently investigated for corruption charges;
- António Leitão Amaro, current deputy caucus leader;
- Teresa Morais, former deputy under Passos Coelho, huge critic of Rui Rio;
- Marco António Costa, former deputy under Passos Coelho,

In the PS, some highprofile MPs have also announced they will leave Parliament:

- Caldeira Cabral, former Economy minister (2015-18);
- Rocha Andrade, former secretary of fiscal affairs (2015-17), currently charged with corruption practices involving "Galpgate";
- Renato Sampaio, MP very close to José Sócrates;

New names that could come to Parliament are also been talk about. For the PS, Marta Temido, the very unpopular health minister, could to be the choice to lead the PS list from Viseu, while PSD will probably choose former Viseu mayor Fernando Ruas. Rui Rio will lead the list from Porto, and António Costa will run again from Lisbon. The PSD list from Lisbon is also creating a lot of media speculation. According to the media, Rio is considering Carlos Moedas to lead the list, but in the advent of a no from Moedas, the PSD could choose Rio's deputy and former Education minister (2002-04), David Justino, as the main candidate.

Many names can still be discarded and others can still emerge. By late July, the lists from all the main parties will be announced.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from June:

Vote share %:

35.6% PS (-0.9)
23.1% PSD (-2.6)
  9.0% BE (-0.1)
  6.9% CDU (-0.4)
  6.6% CDS (-0.3)
  4.2% PAN (+2.7)
  0.8% Alliance (-0.5)
11.4% Others/Invalid (+2.3)
  2.4% Undecided (-0.1)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

15.1 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.2)
10.3 António Costa (+0.1)
  9.9 Catarina Martins (+0.7)
  9.3 André Silva (new)
  9.2 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.5)
  6.2 Rui Rio (-0.7)
  5.3 Assunção Cristas (-0.5)

Preferred PM:

54.0% António Costa (+1.2)
25.7% Rui Rio (-3.7)

Poll conducted between 13 and 19 July 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

If the PS fails to win either an outright majority or enough seats for a deal with PAN to be viable, do you think they'd go for a repeat of the Central Bloc or reluctantly make another deal with BE+CDU?

[Mike88]

If the PS fails to win either an outright majority or enough seats for a deal with PAN to be viable, do you think they'd go for a repeat of the Central Bloc or reluctantly make another deal with BE+CDU?

A PS/PSD central bloc is almost impossible, and if the PSD wins just 23%, Rio would be thrown out of the leadership by the party establishment and base. He's already mocked daily by the party faithfull, so the only way a central bloc is possible is if, somehow, Rio outperforms and gives the PSD a result around 29-30%, which is very unlikely, not to mention that basically all the possible successors of Rio are not willing to help Costa, thus this option is basically off the table. However, major agreements between PS and PSD could still occur. In fact, on of the reasons PS and BE/CDU relations are so bad right now is because the PS is inching closer to the PSD in major pieces of legislation, such as the new basic healthcare law, where the PS is willing to approve some of the PSD' market base policies for the NHS. BE and CDU are furious with PS, and the left is not very happy.

If the 2019 election results are similar to the June Aximage poll, there's a very high possibility of a snap election after the summer of 2020, because if you add the possibility of a new PSD leader, BE/CDU becoming a fierce opposition to Costa, and Costa not finding the numbers to pass basic legislation, he could face a situation of deadlock and ask the President to dissolve Parliament. I don't know if the fact that Marcelo is up for reelection in January 2021, could delay a snap election until March 2021, and don't forget that there's local elections in October 2021.

But, until October 6th, a lot could change the current trends.

[Mike88]

Update on local by-elections:

Tomorrow, 23 June, voters in Argoncilhe parish, Santa Maria da Feira, Aveiro district, will head to the polls to elect a new parish assembly. The previous PSD minority assembly, elected in 2017, fell in February when all opposition parties resigned from their seats in protest with the PSD management of the parish, mainly acquisition of works regarding the clean up of roads, graveyards and others. The PS opposition even filled a complain against the PSD to the DA office.

The parish has a population of around 8,000 inhabitants and 7,425 registered voters. 5 parties will be on the ballot: PS, BE, CDS, PSD and CDU. A swing parish, Argoncilhe was governed by the PS for 20 years, 1985-2005, and since then by the PSD. In the EP elections, PS and PSD basically tied in the parish with the PS winning 35% to the PSD' 32%.

In Paderne parish by-election, Melgaço, Viana do Castelo district, schedule for 28 July, only 2 parties will be on the ballot: PS and PPM. PSD didn't present a list. The previous parish cabinet, headed by an Independent, fell after the 2019 budget was struck down by the PS+Other Independent opposition. A PS bastion, Paderne has been governed by the PS for the majority of the last 45 years. In the EP elections, PS won 43% against the 26% of the PSD.

[Mike88]

Private corporations will be allowed to conduct autopsies and legal-medical expertise:

The government has approved a bill that will allow private hospitals, clinics, insurance companies and law practices to conduct or ask for autopsies and other legal-medical investigations. Until now, only the National Institute of Legal Medicine (INMLCF) had the legal competence to due this kind of practices. The government says that this will accelerate many cold cases in the Justice system, as the INMLCF, the government says, is currently overloaded and could now persue other areas of investigation.

As the government approves this bill, workers on the INMLCF will go on strike to protest against the overload of work, lack of investment and in favour of career progressions. This is the 1st strike of Legal Medicine workers in Portuguese history.

[Mike88]

Argoncilhe by-election - PSD hold:

43.6% PSD (+2.0), 6 seats (nc)
38.3% PS (+1.7), 6 (nc)
10.1% CDS (-1.0), 1 (nc)
  3.6% BE (+1.0), 0 (nc)
  1.6% CDU (-1.2), 0 (nc)
  2.8% Blank/Invalid (-2.6)

50.1% Turnout (-10.0)

[Mike88]

Update on the 2019 general election MP lists:

On the PSD, tensions continue. Many local PSD branches are nominating, or renominating, MPs that strongly oppose Rui Rio' leadership. Normally, local branches nominate candidates, that are then approved bv the district party and then accepted, or not, by the party national leadership. MPs like Hugo Soares, very close to Luís Montenegro, and Maria Luís Albuquerque, former finance minister in Passos Coelhos cabinet are being renominated, some by unanimous support. But, it's unlikely that Rio will accept these names. Many Rio supporters say that these MPs are acting like "martyrs" and only want publicity and to act as victims.

In Lisbon city, the nomination process has led the President of the local party to resign. According to the media, he want a candidate that was voted out by the party, adding to this rivalries between him and other highprofile PSD members. The PSD will unveil their list of candidates in late July.

In the PS, the debate is more how to nominate candidates, rather than whom. 117 PS members have signed a joint letter to ask António Costa to hold primary elections to choose MP candidates for the general elections. The option will be debated in the next party meeting, this week, but all signs point that the measure will fail, as it seems that Costa opposes it. Like the PSD, the PS lists will be unveiled by late July.

[Mike88]

2019 general elections: Alliance (A) and We, the Citizens! (NC) will start talks to form a coalition:

Santana Lopes' Alliance party has approved talks with We, the Citizens! with the prospect of forming a coalition to run in the upcoming October general elections. Nonetheless, Alliance is already unveiling their head candidates by district, with Santana Lopes running in Lisbon district.

[Mike88]

Controversy in PAN: Local politician resigns after being accused of xenophobia.

PAN was forced to release a press statement repudiating the words of a PAN local member of Moita city assembly. Fátima Dâmaso made a recommendation vote, in Moita city assembly, regarding the mistreatment of horses, but in her speech she referred to a "ethnicity that has multiplied" and "walks stacked upon horses". She was immediately accused of racism and xenophobia towards the gypsy/romany community. PAN national committee released a statement saying they "profoundly regret if anyone was insulted or felt discriminated or disidentified with this improper reference ".

After talking with the PAN member from Moita, PAN announced she decided to resign as "there were no political conditions for her to stay in that post".

[Mike88]

War of words between PS and BE:

A few days ago, Carlos César, PS president, said the if the PS always said yes to the BE demands, the country would return to the times of the troika and bankruptcy. And in a speech later, he asked for votes in the PS in order to get rid of BE and PCP. The BE reacted with shock, and they accuse César of destroying the PS/BE/CDU agreement, called the "Geringonça". The war of words between PS and BE comes after a bill, proposed by BE, to eliminate moderating fees in the NHS by 2020 was approved, with the help of the PSD, but that since then was thrown to the garbage can as the government said that there's no money for it. The PSD has also retracted their position. Not to mention the current bad situation in the NHS, where there's the risk of lack of obstetricians during the summer, which could force some maternities to function in half-gas.

But, BE has responded with a low quality video, on twitter, mocking César and the PS:
https://twitter.com/EsquerdaNet/status/1143976588591206402

Don't expect the PS to change.#Health

At the same time, Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister, said in a TV interview that agreements between BE and PCP are here to stay.

[Mike88]

New healthcare basic law - PS ends, abruptly, negotiations with the PSD and accuses them of demanding too much:

The PS has ended all negotiations with the PSD regarding the new healthcare basic law. The Socialists accuse the PSD of demanding too much and of proposing policies that would make the new law basically equal to the actual one. The party added that they will ask the leftwing parties, BE and CDU, to negotiate again. The PSD, by the voice of Rui Rio, accuses the PS of not even waiting to negotiate a proper deal, and that because they didn't find no support on the left, they though the PSD would be a "crutch". Rio added that the PSD will vote against any healthcare bill proposed by the PS.

[Mike88]

2019 general elections lists - PSD confirms the names of the head candidates of the major districts, and Rui Rio will not be head candidate in any district:

Rui Rio will not be the head candidate of any PSD district list in these elections. According to the media, he will be the 2nd candidate in Porto district, while the top spot will be for another candidate. This comes after the media started to announce the names of the main candidates in the big districts. The PSD has confirmed these reports and said that the goal is to "make a revolution in the way lists are made" and adding that "if the current system isn't working, it's time to change it". The names of the top candidates in the 6 big districts are the following:

Lisbon - Filipa Roseta, 46 years old, PSD councillor of Cascais city hall; daughter of Helena Roseta (PS), current chairwoman of Lisbon city assembly.
Porto - Hugo Carvalho, 28, Chairman of the Youth Council of the PSD.
Braga - André Coelho Lima, Councillor of Guimarães city hall.
Aveiro - Ana Miguel Santos, 37, Research associate in Cambridge University.
Leiria - Margarida Balseiro Lopes, 30, Chairwoman of the Social Democratic Youth (JSD).
Coimbra - Mónica Quintela, 52, Highprofile attorney, involved in the highprofile case of serial killer Pedro Dias.

About the many critics of Rui Rio, that many local PSD branches are renominating, the party says they will analyze case by case.

[Mike88]

Alliance party: Santana Lopes challenges voters to "get up from the couch".

https://twitter.com/SolOnline/status/1144939356425216000

Santana Lopes' Varoufakis moment, it seems...

[Mike88]

Enough leader, André Ventura, announces the main candidates for the fall general election and also announces that the party will ran against Marcelo in 2021:

André Ventura, Enough leader, closed, today, the party's founding convention, which gathered around 100 supporters, announcing the head candidates for Lisbon and Porto districts in the October 6th general elections. Ventura will lead the list from Lisbon, while from Porto, Ventura choose GNR officer Hugo Ernano to run as the head candidate. Hugo Ernano was accused of killing a 13 year old gypsy teenager in a police chase in 2008. He was firstly sentenced to 9 years in prison, but after an appeal, his sentence was reduced to a suspensed 4 year prison and a 55,000 euros fine.

Ventura also announced that his party will present a candidate against Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 2021, as he accused Marcelo of wanting to take selfies with criminals than with police officers. He also announce he will meet with Spanish Vox members next week. He labeled Vox as a "coherent party with strong values" and that he will say that Portugal also has its own Vox.