How does Donald Trump win Virginia?

[Suburbia]

Which parts/regions of the Old Dominion does he have to win? Can he give Clinton/Kaine a scare in Kaine's own home state?

[KingSweden]

He'd have to outperform Romney in try outstate and Hampton Roads with whites and veterans (possible) while hoping J/S eat into Xlintons margin with college educated in suburbs (less likely)

[JRoby]

A meteor smashes into NoVa.

[Torie]

A surge in turnout among working class whites in the hinterlands, particularly on the western side of the state. There is some evidence of that happening in some places perhaps, like Mahoning County in Ohio.

[TarHeelDem]

A meteor smashes into NoVa.

Essentially this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He isn't and NC maybe gone as well.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

He doesn't.

[henster]

He doesn't even need 50+ look at Sarvis in '13 he nearly cost McAuliffe the race, 3rd party support in D strongholds could really hurt Hillary.

[Mr. Smith]

Massive overperformance in the Shenandoah and other far west places.

[Kleine Scheiße]

He secured a Virgil Goode endorsement a while back. That probably doesn't mean much because his constituency was going to vote for Trump anyway.

The best bet would be for third-party overperformance in NoVA or massive unexpected turnout/new voters in the south, possibly some of the coastal region.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

He isn't and NC maybe gone as well.

Lol, please, make it him stop

[KingSweden]

He isn't and NC maybe gone as well.

Lol, please, make it him stop

You haven't been around long enough to understand Da-Jon and the 272 freiwal. All must hail and now down before the 272 freiwal.

[Buffalo Bill]

Nah VA is blue now or at least this cycle because of Kaine.  I would focus on CO, NV, OH, IA, and FL. 

[Erich Maria Remarque]

A surge in turnout among working class whites in the hinterlands, particularly on the western side of the state. There is some evidence of that happening in some places perhaps, like Mahoning County in Ohio.

[Enduro]

He doesn't have much of a chance here. Trump would have to dedicate a significant amount of time to rallying the republican base here. Even then I'm not sure.

[Phony Moderate]

By winning more votes than Hillary Clinton.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

By winning more votes than Hillary Clinton.

Makes sense!

[Fuzzy Bear]

It's tough to see Trump winning Virginia if the election were held today.  He'd need 3 things:

1.  Decline in black and Hispanic turnout (probably will happen, but only a little bit).

2.  Increased turnout in rural and small-town areas (possibly happening).

3.  Unsavory aspects of Hillary boost 3rd party voting in NoVA.

The latter hasn't happened yet, but it may, and it's key.  Johnson is kind of like that guy who was the Libertarian candidate for VA Gov in 2013; he's not really a Libertarian, but he's a social libertarian who might prove attractive to some Democrats and liberal independents.  We'll see.

[EpicHistory]

Republican strategy, at least in the conversations I had with some party leadership was to increase turnout by around 5% and make a strong play for the military voters around the military bases on the coasts. While it's clear they've so far failed to muster such a coalition, this does give a blueprint to achieve victory.

[Dr. Arch]

A meteor smashes into NoVa.

Essentially this.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It's tough to see Trump winning Virginia if the election were held today.  He'd need 3 things:

1.  Decline in black and Hispanic turnout (probably will happen, but only a little bit).

2.  Increased turnout in rural and small-town areas (possibly happening).

3.  Unsavory aspects of Hillary boost 3rd party voting in NoVA.

The latter hasn't happened yet, but it may, and it's key.  Johnson is kind of like that guy who was the Libertarian candidate for VA Gov in 2013; he's not really a Libertarian, but he's a social libertarian who might prove attractive to some Democrats and liberal independents.  We'll see.

McMullin is on the ballot in VA. He'll definitely get some disaffected Republicans in NoVA. I feel like NoVA voters in general would be high info voters and therefore at least know who McMullin is. I think that having Tim Kaine really solidified VA for Hillary.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He just wins it. He's very good at winning, you know.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

He just wins it. He's very good at winning, you know.

And Dems will cry like a babies

[Young Conservative]

Everyone acting like Virginia is now as safe as California or Massachusetts is kidding themselves. It's a lean clinton state, but it is by no means safe. Polling proves that. It gets more competitive by the day, thanks in a large part to Gary Johnson getting some voters (probably college and highly educated) that would've chosen her as opposed to Trump.